AU BROKERS SHAKY ACCORD IN THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000454 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM CN SUBJECT: AU BROKERS SHAKY ACCORD IN THE COMOROS REF: ANTAN 452 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) In a deal signed late May 11 between Union of the Comoros Vice President Ikililou, African Union (AU) Envoy Madeira, Arab League Envoy Husni, and deposed Anjouan Island "president" Bacar, the defiant Bacar finally agreed to step down as ordered by the Constitutional Court (reftels). The agreement removed Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi's choice of interim island president and allowed Bacar to name Anjouan Island Economy "Minister" Dhoihirou Halidi in that capacity until the June 10 election. In public statements Comoran Union Government (GOC) officials defended President Sambi's decision to accept the deal, noting this is a small price to pay for peace and security. AU Envoy Madeira said much remains for Comorans to decide, including whether Bacar should be able to run for reelection. ¶2. (U) At present, strikes in Anjouan have ended and calm has returned. GOC and international colleagues are confident island elections will be held in Grand Comore and Moheli as scheduled June 10; but there is discussion about delaying the vote on Anjouan. Forty AU security forces have been promised for Anjouan; these will be bolstered by La Francophonie, the Arab League, and diplomatic observers - including U.S. Mission staff. ¶3. (SBU) COMMENT: Whether from paranoia or inflated self-importance, Bacar insisted on having 11 personal bodyguards from the gendarmerie; former Comoran officials are usually afforded no more than two. At this point, Bacar seems to believe he can run - and win - in June. Our sources on the island suggest he would lose a fair election. If he did, there is real question whether he would respect the outcome and where, under the circumstances, his militia's loyalty might lie. The presence of international observer forces is therefore essential to monitor and uphold the democratic process. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT (continued): President Sambi continues to push for U.S. military assistance to help train his beleaguered Union Army. The Gendarmerie and National Police also seek law enforcement assistance. Our United Nations colleagues will support the June 10 election, and welcome any U.S. support possible, ranging from Mission staff observers to financing. The Ambassador intends to travel to Comoros May 19 for a one-day farewell call and, security permitting, will meet island president candidates on Anjouan and Grande Comore. END COMMENT. MCGEE