COMOROS ISLAND IN DE FACTO SECESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000438 SIPDIS SIPDIS ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR NAIROBI USAID/LPC - AKARAS PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS ASEC CN SUBJECT: COMOROS ISLAND IN DE FACTO SECESSION REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 432 ¶B. ANTANANARIVO 425 ¶C. ANTANANARIVO 399 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After seizing control of the Union radio station and Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi's home on Anjouan May 3, "President" Mohamed Bacar's forces seem to be even more in control of the island. The first reported deaths of Union soldiers have sparked conflict between villages; some residents of Anjouan are calling this "the beginning of the civil war." President Sambi has said elections can not be held in Anjouan under the present situation. Post has been unable to confirm whether representatives of the international community were able to travel to Anjouan today to start any sort of mediation but suspects Bacar is not yet ready to accept any kind of negotiations. Embassy Antananarivo received a diplomatic note from the Union Government May 4 requesting military assistance. END SUMMARY. FIRST REPORTED DEATHS LEADSTO CONFLICT BETWEEN VILLAGES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) Radio stations in Moroni are reporting Bacar's forces attacked and took control of the Union radio station and President Sambi's home on Anjouan May 3. Seeking shelter in an alternate home since May 2, Sambi's wife and children were not in the President's home at the time of the attack and are thought to be safe. ¶3. (SBU) Post has received conflicting reports about the first reported deaths in Anjouan. On the evening of May 3, two Union army boats arrived from Moroni. It is unclear whether they were carrying Union troops from Moroni as reinforcements, or whether they had arrived empty to pick up Union soldiers on the run at a pre-planned "rally point." Regardless, one of Bacar's militia fired a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) and killed two Union soldiers. Regional Commander of the Union Forces Combo and approximately 14 Union soldiers were reportedly captured and taken to prison. Some contacts claim that villagers from the town of one of the dead soldiers, who was originally from Anjouan, attacked the village of the militiaman who fired the RPG and destroyed his home. The irate villagers expressed the desire to attack Bacar's forces and his village. Post has also heard reports that other villages hostile to the Bacar government have burned the home of one of Bacar's supporters, are putting up barricades to keep Bacar's forces out, and may be planning to revolt. Residents of Anjouan are calling this fighting between villages "the beginning of the civil war." PUBLIC RESPONSES FROM THE UNION GOVERNMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Union Minister of Exterior Relations Jaffar said on the radio May 4 that President Sambi explained the Comoros cannot hold elections in Anjouan under the present situation. Explaining that Sambi has abided by the Union's Constitution by appointing an interim president on Anjouan, he reassured the public the international community is objecting to Bacar's actions and will seek a solution working closely with the Union Government. CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Post has been unable to confirm whether representatives of the international community were able to travel to Anjouan today to start any sort of mediation, but Post suspects Bacar is not yet ready to accept any kind of negotiations. Contacts in Moroni report the population suspects the French are behind this latest conflict -- a common but not entirely believable theme running through many of our regular discussions with Comoran contacts. The rumor goes that the French, angry that a U.S. oil company has signed a deal for exploratory rights around the Comoros and (wrongly) assuming this was the objective of the April 19 U.S.-Comoros bilateral talks (Ref C),are assisting Bacar to ANTANANARI 00000438 002 OF 002 give a leg up to their own oil companies. COMORAN GOVERNMENT FORMALLY SEEKS MILITARY ASSISTANCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Early in the afternoon of May 4, the Comoran Foreign Ministry sent a diplomatic note to the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo. The note begins by describing recent events, including the attack by Bacar's militia on the Union Presidential Palace in Hombo on May 2, the killing of the two Union soldiers by an RPG as they attempted to flee by boat, and the capture and imprisonment of the remaining 14 soldiers of the Union army. It states that all Union authorities and Union President Sambi's own family are in grave danger on Anjouan, and it raises the possibility of the entire country slipping into civil war. For this reason, the Union Government seeks human and logistical resources from the U.S. Government to assist in preventing civil war, such as: a rapid response force, military transportation by sea or air, a naval vessel for surveillance off the Anjouan coast, or helicopters. The note closes by thanking the U.S. Government for giving serious consideration to this request. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The Union Government at the moment lacks the wherewithal to stop Bacar from retaining power on Anjouan in what has become a de facto secession from the Union. We suspect Union President Sambi is seeking assistance - military and diplomatic - from a variety of sources as well as from us. If he receives it, he will certainly be obligated to whatever country provides it. He probably realizes the U.S. is unlikely to provide military assistance, despite his request. Nonetheless, a U.S. public statement, condemning the violence and supporting a return to established legal and democratic norms, would no doubt be greatly appreciated. END COMMENT. McGEE