TULEAR RIOTS CONTINUE, OTHER CITIES ON LOW SIMMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000414 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL PARIS FOR D'ELIA DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF CKOLLMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM MA SUBJECT: TULEAR RIOTS CONTINUE, OTHER CITIES ON LOW SIMMER REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 409 B) ANTANANARIVO 362 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of unrest in Tamatave, political opposition groups are trying to take advantage of a string of student-initiated protests over poor university conditions and black-outs in a number of coastal cities -- particularly Tulear (REF A) -- to further their anti-referendum agenda. Following a week of minor street protests and skirmishes between Mayor of Tamatave Roland Ratsiraka's supporters and security forces (REF B),the coastal city of Tamatave is calm. Security forces in Tamatave are preparing for possible protests preceding Ratsiraka's hearing before the magistrate scheduled for next week. French Ambassador Alain Le Roi continues to believe Ratsiraka's arrest was politically motivated and could incite waves of violence throughout the country, although a well-placed source close to Ratsiraka privately acknowledged to Ambassador McGee the embezzlement charges are likely true. END SUMMARY. OPPOSITION PIGGYBACKS ON STUDENT PROTESTS IN COASTAL CITIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Political opposition groups are trying to take advantage of a string of student-initiated protests over poor university conditions and black-outs to further their anti-referendum agenda in a number of coastal cities around the country: a) Tensions in Tulear (REF A) are worsening. Mobs reportedly vandalized shops and businesses owned by highland "Merina" people in the city. Gendarmes contacts also said the mobs were headed toward the Magro facility in Tulear (Magro is one of President Ravalomanana's companies). Student protesters have demanded the release of student leaders among the 12 people arrested thus far in exchange for the regional director of the Penitentiary Administration still being held hostage. Contacts report local politicians plan to join the protests to support or protest the recently approved constitutional referendum. An AmCit couple is registered as resident in Tulear; as of April 27 ConsOff was unable to reach them to confirm whether they were presently in the province. b) On April 19, students at the University of Antsiranana (also known as Diego Suarez) went on strike to protest the delayed payment of scholarships, insufficient study materials, and power outages. Police released tear gas and fired shots into the air to calm the crowd. A student leader and three civilians were arrested April 20 and released 24 hours later. Police are not allowing students or opposition groups to demonstrate in the city's public plaza, but 30 opposition members have demonstrated in the streets while students have continued to demonstrate peacefully on university grounds. Diego Suarez is reportedly calm at this time. c) Motivated by stories of their fellow students in Diego Suarez and Tulear, students in Majunga went on strike April 20 to demand the payment of scholarships and improved study conditions and materials. Local police are circulating on university grounds to maintain order. TAMATAVE CALM AND AWAITING RATSIRAKA'S HEARING - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) Roland Ratsiraka's hearing before a judge in Tamatave to answer charges of embezzlement and abuse of power is scheduled to take place next week; the trial date has not yet been set. When asked for a reaction to Ratsiraka's arrest, President Ravalomanana said upon his return from Germany April 24, "We have an independent judiciary in Madagacar. Tamatave's justice system made its decision; now let them do their work." In response to criticism the arrest was politically motivated, the President reminded the public that Ratsiraka was not the only mayor arrested for corruption; a mayor from Antananarivo province was also recently arrested under similar charges. Ratsiraka has protested the poor prison conditions under which he is being held as a violation of his human rights. Media reports over the "special treatment" Ratsiraka is receiving in prison (such as having his own cell and daily family visits) are conflicting, but in general Madagacar is known for the dismal state of its prisons. ¶4. (U) Following a week of minor street protests and skirmishes between Ratsiraka supporters and security forces, Tamatave is calm and shops have re-opened. Security forces have blockaded the sidewalk around the prison in anticipation of protests surrounding Ratsiraka's hearing next week. Local communities on the outskirts of Tamatave have set up security teams on the lookout for any spillover problems. Post has heard reports of anti-Merina (the people of the highland region) sentiment circulating around the city. An unknown number of leaflets were distributed calling for a repeat of 1972, when the coastal people of Tamatave drove out many of the Merina in their communities. ¶5. (C) French Ambassador Alain Le Roi reiterated to Ambassador McGee April 25 that whether or not the charges against Ratsiraka are true, his arrest is a political witch hunt on the part of the Ravalomanana administration that could incite widespread violent protest. He argued the President is overlooking any number of corrupt officials in his own administration to go after his political opponent. In a separate meeting, a well-placed source close to Ratsiraka privately admitted to Ambassador McGee the embezzlement charges against the mayor are likely true. COMMENT - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Post reiterates its belief that isolated public frustration over Roland Ratsiraka's arrest, poor university conditions, and black-outs is being fanned by opportunistic opposition leaders in coastal cities. It is a common trend in Madagascar for opposition groups to piggyback on student protests to move their agenda forward. Possibly motivated by these incidents around the country, Herizo Razafimahaleo, a former presidential candidate, is reportedly planning to hold meetings among his supporters in Fianarantsoa in the coming days. END COMMENT. MCGEE McGEE