RESULTS NEARLY COMPLETE, REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000352 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA SUBJECT: RESULTS NEARLY COMPLETE, REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 325 B) ANTANANARIVO 301 C) ANTANANARIVO 252 D) ANTANANARIVO 232 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Waiting on results from only 27 of the country's 17,000-plus polling stations, Madagascar's constitutional referendum passed with a 75.37 percent approval rate and a 43.7 percent voter turnout. The usual criticism from the opposition post-referendum will likely fall on deaf ears. The Council of Ministers chaired by the President is now starting to shift its attention to upcoming elections for senators, mayors and "fokontany" (neighborhood) leaders. END SUMMARY. RESULTS SHOW REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) On the evening of April 9, the Ministry of Interior published results collected from 99.85 percent of the country's 17,586 polling stations. Of 3,157,946 votes cast representing 43.7 percent of eligible voters, 75.37 percent approved the proposed constitutional changes. It came as no surprise the referendum was rejected in the cities of Tulear (support base of opponent Jean Lahiniriko),Tamatave (traditional stronghold of former President Ratsiraka), Fianarantsoa, Diego Suarez, and Majunga. Media reports noted subtle shifts from the December 3 presidential election results. While the President lost 400,000 votes in his traditional support base of Antananarivo province, he gained 200,000 votes in Tulear province. Some speculate these changes reflect the beginning of a shift in political bases, but they are more likely a mixed result of low voter turnout despite pressure on Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials to encourage voters to approve the referendum. ¶3. (U) Although the results fall short of the 80 percent approval rate President Ravalomanana was aiming for, heexpressed satisfaction over the initial referendum results at a session of the Council of Ministers April 6. The President believes voters in the five provincial capitals who rejected the referendum are scared of losing their jobs, while those in rural areas who approved the referendum expressed the desire to be closer to the administration. Turning its attention toward the future, the meeting focused on the upcoming elections for senators, mayors and fokontany leaders (dates yet to be determined). OPPOSITION REACTION - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) As expected, the committee of voters against the referendum is publicly contesting the Ministry of Interior's results, questioning how isolated communes inaccessible by road managed to turn in their votes in less than three days. The head of the opposition Committee for National Reconciliation called it a "pre-fabricated victory" and expects Ravalomanana and his team will continue their drive toward "greater personal power and weaker democracy." Former presidential candidate opponents Roland Ratsiraka, Herizo Razafimahaleo and Jean Lahiniriko announced they intend to consolidate their forces to seize the majority of seats in the upcoming Senate and communal elections. COMMENT - - - - ¶5. (C) Ambassador McGee recently learned German, French and EU officials jointly demarched President Ravalomanana in a closed-door meeting in the days before the referendum to express concern over the process of the vote, namely the hasty timing. With the GOM already looking to the future, Post expects opposition criticism post-referendum will equally fall on deaf ears. Regardless of low voter turnout (and some have suggested the turnout may have been even lower that that officially reported),the President seems confident of his mandate from the people and ready to forge ahead with his government's plans for Madagascar's development. If opposition parties are able to put aside their rivalries and cooperate to win back seats in upcoming elections they might have some success, but it would be a first for Madagascar's typically unsophisticated political parties. END COMMENT. McGEE