TURNOUT FOR REFERENDUM LOW BUT PEACEFUL

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000325 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA SUBJECT: TURNOUT FOR REFERENDUM LOW BUT PEACEFUL REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 321 B) ANTANANARIVO 301 C) ANTANANARIVO 252 D) ANTANANARIVO 232 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Anecdotal and radio reports from around the country reflect a peaceful day at the polls for Madagascar's constitutional referendum with no security incidents. Voter turnout seems to be considerably lower than for the recent presidential election due to apathy that the constitutional changes are a "fait accompli" and the challenge of getting to the polls in the face of widespread flooding and cyclone damage. Polling stations are operating smoothly with no opposition observer presence noted. The official announcement may not be ready for three to four weeks, but Post agrees with the prevailing sentiment the referendum will pass easily. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Over 17,500 polling stations opened nationwide at 0700 today for Madagascar's constitutional referendum. The referendum, adopting or rejecting a wide range of mostly minor changes by a simple yes or no vote, largely failed to generate much enthusiasm despite the opposition painting it as a power grab by the incumbent President. Anecdotal and national radio reports from around the country reflect a peaceful day at the polls with no security incidents. ¶3. (U) PolOff visited a number of polling stations in the Antananarivo area. The stations were well-organized with seasoned staff from the December elections. After delivering corrected voter registration cards door-to-door over the past few weeks, polling station chiefs believe the voting card irregularities noted in the December presidential election have been mostly resolved. PolOff only encountered national observers from the camp registered as "for" the referendum. Opposition observers were nowhere to be seen - not surprising given their lack of organization and funding throughout the referendum campaign. ¶4. (U) Post expects voter turnout to be considerably lower than for the presidential election due to voter apathy that the constitutional changes are a "fait accompli" and the difficulty of getting to the polls in the face of widespread flooding and cyclone damage. National public television announced the government expects more than six million voters today (nearly 75 percent of the approximately eight million eligible voters),but this seems an optimistic estimate given that only 55 percent of voters participated in the far more popular presidential election. In PolOff's polling station visits, she noted only 10 to 15 percent of eligible voters for each location had voted by 1100 local time. No one was seen queuing at the doors, although participation is expected to pick up throughout the afternoon. ¶5. (U) The April 3 morning landfall of Cyclone Jaya(REF A),the sixth tropical storm to strike this season, has not prevented polls from opening. Polling stations in some disaster-stricken regions, notably Maroantsetra district in the northeast, opened three hours late due to the weather problems and are expected to remain open late into the evening. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Even in the more politically conscious capital city, the Malagasy seem more concerned with finishing their Easter shopping than rushing to the polls. The official results may not be ready for three to four weeks given the absence of the South African helicopters that accelerated ballot collection in the presidential election. Post agrees with the prevailing sentiment that passage of the referendum is a done deal. END COMMENT. MCGEE