UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001231

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS UNDERWAY



1. (U) SUMMARY: Campaign season for Madagascar's December 12
municipal elections is well underway, with the ruling TIM party
dominating throughout most of the country. As usual, the Government
of Madagascar (GOM) is mobilizing at the highest levels to pitch in
with the campaigns; ministers are serving as "coaches" to TIM
candidates throughout the country. The campaign is unexpectedly
heating up in the capital city of Antananarivo, with only two of the
six candidates, TIM's Hery Rafalimanana and youthful businessman
Andry Rajoelina, considered serious contenders. Political observers
are watching this face-off closely, as past mayors have gone on to
occupy high-level government positions including the presidency.
END SUMMARY.

THE RACE IN ANTANANARIVO HEATS UP
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2. (U) Political observers are watching the campaign in the capital
city of Antananarivo closely. Past mayors have gone on to occupy
high-level government positions, most notably current President Marc
Ravalomanana. The campaign is unexpectedly heating up, with only
two of the six candidates, Hery Rafalimanana and Andry Rajoelina,
considered serious contenders. After serving eight months as
"acting" mayor, Hery Rafalimanana is President Ravalomanana's Tiako
I Madagasikara (TIM) party candidate. His campaign message
--"Look at what I have done in Antananarivo in only eight months" --
refers to Antananarivo's recent "facelift," largely funded in
preparation for the Indian Ocean Games in August. A TIM member and
"TIKO boy" (a former director in President Ravalomanana's TIKO
conglomerate), he was a relative unknown until taking up his
position as "acting mayor" in early 2007.


3. Rafalimanana's main opponent is Andry Rajoelina, an independent,
who has surprised political observers by winning significant support
among constituents under 30. An independently wealthy young man
from a rich family, Rajoelina is the Director General of INJET, a
communication company that owns most of the billboards in
Antananarivo, and the owner of private radio and television stations
called "VIVA." His youthful appearance and endless energy have
earned him the nickname "Andry TGV," alluding to the fact he moves
as quickly as French high-speed train. While this endears him to
younger voters, some older constituents consider him too "boyish"
for serious business. Although he has presented no clear platform,
his campaign message is, "My success in the business world speaks
for itself, and I can make Antananarivo successful too." Post notes
Rajoelina is strangely reminiscent of President Ravalomanana when he
first entered the political scene in the late 1990s as a surprise
candidate: a young, successful and dynamic businessman. At this
point, Rafalimanana appears to have the upper hand, but those
disillusioned with the current administration consider Rajoelina a
strong alternative.


4. (U) The remaining four candidates in Antananarivo, relative
unknowns not allied with any formal political party, have very
little hope to win significant votes. Marc Ramiarinjatovo's
campaign apparel displays his picture with both U.S. and European
Union flags in the background. Jonah Andrianaivo Andrianasolo's
campaign slogan evokes tribal leanings: "Antananarivo for the Merina
[tribe]." Nasolo Valiavo, who writes his own op-ed column, and
Malala Savaron, the sole female candidate, have both stayed largely
silent.

THREE ELECTIONS POSTPONED
- - - - - - - - - - - - -


5. (U) Elections in Nosy Be, Ile Sainte Marie, and Fort Dauphin have
been postponed to an unspecified date in order to allow the local
governments to coordinate and complete important development
projects. Some opposition members claim the postponements are
motivated by political reasons. Still, mayoral candidates in all
other elections going forward will be given equal free airtime on
national television and radio, approximately 36 seconds per
candidate per day.


6. COMMENT: The face-off in Antananarivo is of most interest in
this election. The Department-funded National Democratic Institute
program in Madagascar will organize a live debate on national
television December 10 between Antananarivo contenders Hery
Rafalimanana, Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ramiarinjatovo. END
COMMENT.

MARQUARDT