LIFE IN ANJOUAN UNDER COLONEL BACAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001221 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SOCI EAID CN SUBJECT: LIFE IN ANJOUAN UNDER COLONEL BACAR REF: A) ANTAN 1215 B) ANTAN 1210 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Reports from Anjouan, where EmbOffs have been unable to visit for six months, indicate life in limbo for most of the 240,000 people living there. There are unconfirmed reports that many opponents to Bacar, journalists, activists, intellectuals, and teachers, have been imprisoned; others have fled. An "Anjouanese Association" in Moroni, Grande Comore, is lobbying for military action against Bacar. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On recent visits to the Union of the Comoros, PolEcon Chief met with the "United Front" association (favoring military action against Anjouan),NGO contacts, the Union Government, and diplomatic corps to assess life in Colonel Bacar's Anjouan. The Ambassador reported (Reftels) that strong arguments are being offered both in favor of restraint/negotiation and military action. While this debate plays out, conditions in Anjouan slowly deteriorate. Anjouan Association Advocates Force - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) According to Ben Ali Kombu, an NGO activist leader in a group calling itself the "United Front," Anjouan's 240,000 people are suffering hardship. While renegade Colonel Bacar provisions his entourage and militia, staple foods and fuel are becoming scarce. Kombu said most average Anjouanese, subsistence farmers and fishermen, are living off their crops and their savings. Having endured crises in the past, they can hold on for several months. ¶4. (SBU) For Anjouanese "elites," however, the situation is grave, Kombu said. Reliable information is hard to come by, but Colonel Bacar has reportedly imprisoned hundreds of real or imagined threats to his regime, including journalists, intellectuals, politicians, and even teachers. Among the limited information trickling out of Anjouan is a report that jails are full and Bacar is holding people in shipping containers. Between 500 and 600 Anjouanese have fled the island, most ending up in Grande Comore. In addition to "elites" fleeing arrest, many small traders have also left Anjouan because they cannot do import/export under Bacar in present conditions. This will exacerbate the scarcity of foodstuffs in Anjouan. ¶5. (SBU) Kombu's Front, which collected 3,000 petition signatures in Grande Comore and includes National Assembly deputies, held a rally November 25 to protest the African Union's "timid" approach to the Anjouan crisis. The Front claims there is broad public support for the Union Army, alone or with friends, to invade Anjouan. Kombu offered the impossible-to-confirm statistic that 90 percent of Anjouanese favor an invasion. He asserted that Anjouanese civilians would join in the attack and that Bacar's militia would not fight back. Anjouanese NGO Contact - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) An NGO leader well-known to the Embassy moves freely in and out of Anjouan. In Moroni in late November on contract with UNDP, Alban Soilihi told PolEcon Chief Bacar leaves him alone because he is apolitical and has international ties. Alban confirmed Bacar was paranoid and locking up anyone who could oppose him. He reserved his criticism, however, for the Sambi administration's mishandling of the Anjouan situation. Noting his many friends among Sambi's predominantly Anjouanese advisors, Alban was disappointed none of them understood the situation in Anjouan or knew what to do about Bacar. He criticized as naove the Sambi government's public statements staking out tough positions against Bacar, which they could not back up. International Opinions On Anjouan - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) While Union officials call the flight of hundreds of Anjouanese the greatest displacement in Comoran history, there is little evidence of acute humanitarian crisis on any of the islands. Some Comorans, like the "Front" who call for military action, ignore that armed invasion would lead to substantial human suffering. The AU, led by South Africa, is prepared to be patient and ramp up pressure on Bacar over time. The French are preoccupied with finding which of the free islands, Moheli or Grande Comore, will accept repatriated Comoran illegals from Mayotte. While acknowledging that all development progress is on hold, none of the ANTANANARI 00001221 002 OF 002 donors are sounding humanitarian alarm bells over Anjouan, yet. Bacar Profits From Stalemate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) There is little doubt that Colonel Bacar enriches himself more every day he can remain in power. African Union ResRep Mourad reported a rumor that shipping companies pay Bacar a "fee" of about USD 1.6 million a year to use the Anjouan Port of Mutsamudu. (Note: Anjouan has the deepwater port, so most international traffic in/out of the Comoros is transshipped there. End Note). Add the over USD 1 million Bacar collects from customs, and this tin-pot dictator may earn nearly USD 3 million per year just controlling the Port. Of course, this does not all go into his pockets - he does have arms to buy and a militia to pay. MARQUARDT