UNION PLEDGES NO ACTION AGAINST ANJOUAN BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 001171 SIPDIS SIPDIS ADDIS ABABE FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO AID FOR EGAT/WID PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN SUBJECT: UNION PLEDGES NO ACTION AGAINST ANJOUAN BEFORE DECEMBER REF: ANTANANARIVO 1147 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D ¶1. (C) The people of the Union of the Comoros are on "standby" as the standoff with Anjouan continues. Union Government officials are committed to cooperating with the African Union (AU) to give sanctions against Anjouan (which will run out on November 24) a chance to work, but they will not wait indefinitely. Minister of Exterior Relations Jaffar, Vice-President Dhoinine, and Chief of the Army Staff Salimou have all confirmed to Post the Union Government will take no "action" (read: military) against Anjouan before December. Meanwhile, the international community complains all political and economic life in Moroni is frozen. ¶2. (U) Next door in Anjouan, "President" Bacar is digging in. In retaliation for the AU sanctions banning travel and freezing assets of key Anjouan figures, Bacar has issued his own two lists: one of those (his political opponents) not allowed to leave Anjouan, and one of those (mostly Union Government officials) not allowed to enter Anjouan. At the main port in Anjouan, Bacar is holding up a number of containers destined for Grand Comore and Moheli, raising concerns the two islands will not receive their adequate imports. ¶3. (SBU) USAID Disaster Relief Expert Harlan Hale currently on the ground in Moroni noted increased traffic of Comorans between the four islands of the Comoran archipelago. Displaced people, mostly families, seeking refuge from Anjouan in Moheli and Grande Comore number in the hundreds. In addition, French-administered Mayotte is starting to return illegal Comorans to Moheli, instead of to Anjouan as per usual. Once returned, these illegals either stay in Moheli, travel to Grande Comore or Anjouan, or attempt to return illegally to Mayotte. The relatively low numbers of displaced and deported Comorans do not yet constitute a crisis, but there is concern that future arrivals could cause instability on Grand Comore and Moheli as their already limited resources are stretched even thinner. Security contacts also fear growing resentment of Anjouan could lead to clashes between the general public and the military, as two thirds of the Comoran National Army hail from Anjouan. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The situation in the Comoros continues to stagnate with no sign Bacar will back down in Anjouan. There is no clear understanding of what action the AU or the Union Government, working independently or together, will take after sanctions expire on November 24. Union Government officials are aware of the importance of Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer's upcoming visit to the Comoros scheduled for November 29 and 30 and have assured Post no action will be taken before or during her visit. However, both patience and options are growing short, and, barring a breakthrough, pressure to take decisive action will no doubt increase in December. END COMMENT. SIBLEY