DIPLOMATIC CORPS IN MORONI DISCUSSES CRISIS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001114 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS EAID PHUM CN SUBJECT: DIPLOMATIC CORPS IN MORONI DISCUSSES CRISIS REF: ANTAN 935 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The diplomatic corps in Moroni and Government of the Union of the Comoros were surprised by Grande Comore island president Abdouloihab's visit to Anjouan. The international community, led by the African Union (AU),is working to apply sanctions and encourage the Union Government to give these measures a chance. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Chinese, South African, French, Malagasy, and UNDP diplomats met October 30 to discuss the Anjouan crisis, particularly the bizarre visit of Grande Comore island President Abdouloihab to Anjouan to meet renegade Colonel Bacar. The United States was represented by our Comoran FSN in Moroni. The diplomatic corps shared the Union Government's surprise at Abdouloihab's actions, agreeing they could undermine the African Union (AU) sanctions (reftels). Abdouloihab's trip report to the AU office in Moroni caused further shock and dismay: he said Bacar will accept elections only after an "official meeting between all three island presidents." This proposal is problematic in at least two ways: 1) lending undeserved credibility to Bacar and 2) leaving the Union out of the process. ¶3. (U) On October 27, the GOC published the official list of Anjouan residents who will be targeted by AU sanctions. Naming 145 people, the list included Colonel Bacar, his ministers and advisors, nearly all of the gendarmes officers, the directors general of the University of Patsy and the hospital of Hombo, several parliamentarians, and members of the local electoral commission (Post sent the full list to AF/E). ¶4. (SBU) Mozambican Minister and AU Special Envoy Madeira arrived October 30 in Moroni to establish a commission to implement sanctions. The group will include Comoran, AU, and Arab League officials. Flights and boats from Moroni to French Mayotte, which previously stopped in Anjouan on the way, have been diverted instead to stop in Moheli. Flights and boats that must pick up passengers in Anjouan must subsequently stop in Moheli en route to Mayotte for Union officials to ensure passengers are not on the sanctions list. Union officials report one of Bacar's people left Anjouan by boat during the past week and has arrived in Mayotte - they are working with the French Embassy to seek his return to the Comoros. ¶5. (SBU) In a curious acknowledgement of Union helplessness, the Minister of External Relations has asked all Embassies to encourage the island presidents of Grande Comore and Moheli to be "responsible" in their efforts to resolve the crisis. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The Union Government has made it clear it will not "sit down at the table with a rebel." Union officials will oppose Bacar's proposal for talks between island presidents, his latest stall tactic, and at their behest the international community will likely follow suit. It seems Union President Sambi's only option is to maintain the "wait and see" strategy to see out the 45 days of AU sanctions. END COMMENT. MARQUARDT