RULING PARTY VICTORIOUS IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001063 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DRL PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA SUBJECT: RULING PARTY VICTORIOUS IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS REF: ANTANANARIVO 869 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The High Constitutional Court (HCC) announced October 13 the official results of the September 23 National Assembly elections: President Ravalomanana's "Tiako I Madagasikara" (TIM) party won 105 seats, others won 20 seats, and two elections were voided for irregularities. New elections for these two seats, where a combined 60,000 votes were voided, will be held November 12. All but two of the 20 races TIM lost were won by independents; among known opposition parties, only Herizo Razafimhaleo's LEADER-FANILO party won a seat. President Ravalomanana is expected to reshuffle his cabinet this week. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The HCC announced October 13 that President Ravalomanana's TIM Party officially won an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly with at least 105 of 127 seats. The elections in two districts, Mananara Avaratra (Analanjorofo Region) and Bealanana (Sofia Region),were cancelled for irregularities and will be held again November 12. Over 60,000 ballots were declared invalid between these two districts. Twenty seats were won by non-TIM candidates, mostly independents and minor parties. Herizo's LEADER-FANILO won one seat. Only 20 of the new Deputies (from any affiliation) have previously served in Parliament, thus over 100 are rookies. A total of 10 women were elected to the National Assembly, seven TIM members and three independents. ¶3. (SBU) According to Malagasy law, the new National Assembly will hold its first session October 23, the second Tuesday after the HCC announcement. President Ravalomanana is expected to reshuffle his cabinet before then, in particular to decide the futures of six sitting Ministers who were elected as Deputies. The law prohibits officials from holding both posts. Minister of Decentralization Ivan Randriasandratriniony, who was recently named TIM Party President, is a close advisor to the President and key official in the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP). The long-serving and effective Minister of Health, Jean Louis Robinson, was also elected Deputy, but is not expected to leave his Ministry. The remaining four - Minister of Finance Benjamin Radavidson, Minister of Energy Patrick Ramiaramanana, Minister of Mines Donat Andriamahefamparany, and Minister of Environment Bernard Koto - who won Deputy elections, could likely be excused from their Ministries to join the National Assembly. ¶4. (U) Former Prime Minister Jacques Sylla was elected Deputy and is a possible candidate for President of the National Assembly when it convenes. The Director of the Port of Tamatave, Pierrot Botozaza, also won on the TIM ticket. Any of the Ministers leaving their posts to become a Deputy would also be candidates for leadership positions in the National Assembly. President Ravalomanana is expected to name a new cabinet by October 19 - in the mean time, a spokesman for the Prime Minister said the six Ministers who were elected will not take part in cabinet meetings until their futures are known. Ministers who are selected to remain in the Cabinet are allowed by law to pass their Deputy seat to another member of the TIM party. COMMENT: -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The atmospherics following the HCC announcement were of celebration: the HCC President, National Electoral Commission (CNE) President, and Prime Minister toasted each other on "their" victory. At a small gathering to which the diplomatic corps was invited, the monitors (CNE),certifiers (HCC),organizers (GOM),and victors (TIM) all patted each other on the back for their success. While perhaps not inappropriate, it was a telling visual to see all the components of President Ravalomanana's political machine partying. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: The elections solidly asserted TIM's control over the National Assembly; its dominance improved from 68 to over 80 percent of seats. The Ministry of Interior recently announced that municipal and communal elections will be held on December 12, in what will be Madagascar's fourth election in one year. Voter fatigue, and perhaps a sense that TIM wins were inevitable, was evident in the low turnout rate (46 percent) for the legislative elections. Post anticipates more of the same in the upcoming municipal elections. END COMMENT. NEUBERT