Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA979
2007-04-26 14:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
TURKEY: QUORUM QUESTION CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000979
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2027
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: QUORUM QUESTION CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
REF: A. ANKARA 916
B. 06 ANKARA 6723
Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000979
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2027
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: QUORUM QUESTION CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
REF: A. ANKARA 916
B. 06 ANKARA 6723
Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Turkey's parliament will convene Friday, April 27,
at 3pm to begin the first round of the presidential election
process. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is
standing firm on its threat to boycott. If the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) fails to muster 367
deputies to attend the first round (reftels),CHP has
promised to appeal to the Constitutional Court, whose chief
judge yesterday reiterated her pledge to rule on the matter
within two days. In the event of an appeal:
--Should the court find that the Constitution requires a
quorum of 367 (two-thirds -- the number necessary to elect a
president in the first round -- vice the routine one-third,
or 184),the presidential election would be invalidated and
Turkey would go immediately to general elections, which can
be accomplished in as short as a 45-day window. President
Sezer would remain in place until the new parliament elects
the president.
--Should the court rule against CHP, the presidential
election process will proceed in parliament.
2. (C) CHP leadership remains stubbornly convinced that it is
in the right. Derailing first Erdogan and now Gul has become
their Holy Grail, as a conversation with CHP vice chair Sinan
Yerlikaya made clear. A number of disgruntled and disgusted
CHPers are considering exiting from politics, in part because
of the party's obsessive anti-AKP populist course and refusal
to offer constructive alternatives. Non-party affiliated
think tank contacts tell us it is a stretch to assume the
constitution would require different quorums for different
rounds of presidential voting, but hope the issue goes to
the Constitutional Court to decide it once and for all.
3. (C) Everyone is playing for votes: Gul is courting
independents and small opposition parties. One CHP MP
resigned today, headed to the center-right True Path Party
(DYP); an AKP MP resigned as well. While several CHPers may
break ranks and attend tomorrow's first round vote, whether
or not the election goes to the Constitutional Court will
depend on independents (9 MPs),and small opposition parties
ANAVATAN (20) and DYP (4 or 5). DYP and ANAVATAN must decide
by tomorrow whether to boycott or attend the first round.
Their calculation will be based on whether they believe they
will fare better in early elections or in elections held
later. Of all the parties, it appears to us that, today,
only AKP is really ready for a national vote.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2027
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: QUORUM QUESTION CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
REF: A. ANKARA 916
B. 06 ANKARA 6723
Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Turkey's parliament will convene Friday, April 27,
at 3pm to begin the first round of the presidential election
process. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is
standing firm on its threat to boycott. If the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) fails to muster 367
deputies to attend the first round (reftels),CHP has
promised to appeal to the Constitutional Court, whose chief
judge yesterday reiterated her pledge to rule on the matter
within two days. In the event of an appeal:
--Should the court find that the Constitution requires a
quorum of 367 (two-thirds -- the number necessary to elect a
president in the first round -- vice the routine one-third,
or 184),the presidential election would be invalidated and
Turkey would go immediately to general elections, which can
be accomplished in as short as a 45-day window. President
Sezer would remain in place until the new parliament elects
the president.
--Should the court rule against CHP, the presidential
election process will proceed in parliament.
2. (C) CHP leadership remains stubbornly convinced that it is
in the right. Derailing first Erdogan and now Gul has become
their Holy Grail, as a conversation with CHP vice chair Sinan
Yerlikaya made clear. A number of disgruntled and disgusted
CHPers are considering exiting from politics, in part because
of the party's obsessive anti-AKP populist course and refusal
to offer constructive alternatives. Non-party affiliated
think tank contacts tell us it is a stretch to assume the
constitution would require different quorums for different
rounds of presidential voting, but hope the issue goes to
the Constitutional Court to decide it once and for all.
3. (C) Everyone is playing for votes: Gul is courting
independents and small opposition parties. One CHP MP
resigned today, headed to the center-right True Path Party
(DYP); an AKP MP resigned as well. While several CHPers may
break ranks and attend tomorrow's first round vote, whether
or not the election goes to the Constitutional Court will
depend on independents (9 MPs),and small opposition parties
ANAVATAN (20) and DYP (4 or 5). DYP and ANAVATAN must decide
by tomorrow whether to boycott or attend the first round.
Their calculation will be based on whether they believe they
will fare better in early elections or in elections held
later. Of all the parties, it appears to us that, today,
only AKP is really ready for a national vote.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON