TURKEY ANNOUNCES 7-YEAR EU REFORM PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000971 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU SUBJECT: TURKEY ANNOUNCES 7-YEAR EU REFORM PLAN REF: ANKARA 699 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), (d) 1.(C) Summary: Officials from the EU Commission and Turkey's EU Secretariat told us the EU's December 11 partial suspension of negotiations had cleared the way for technical-level progress but contributed to stagnation on political reforms. The GOT's April 18 rollout of its seven-year roadmap was a sign of Turkey's commitment to the accession process, and they predicted the EU's German Presidency would open negotiations on at least three more "economic" chapters. But a double-election year and rise in anti-EU sentiment are making it difficult for the GOT to address controversial political issues. Turkey's EU Secretariat believes the USG's "gentle support" would help, SIPDIS while the EU Commission encouraged us to push harder for broad structural change. The likely elevation of FM Abdullah Gul -- a long-time proponent of Turkey's EU accession -- to the presidency and possible appointment of a like-minded official to replace him as FM provides hope that the next government will be able to jump-start stalled political reforms. End summary. -------------- GOT Rolls Out 7-Year EU Roadmap -------------- 2.(U) FM Abdullah Gul and State Minister and Chief EU Negotiator Ali Babacan held an April 18 press conference to unveil a seven-year plan outlining the GOT's EU harmonization plans. The document lists the laws and regulations Turkey aims to pass between 2007 and 2013, their status, and the lead institution for each law. Babacan hailed the roadmap as a critical document and the "backbone of structural reforms." He emphasized that the GOT prepared the document without consultation with the EU so that it could set its own timeline and priorities. FM Gul described it as a formula for success in the hands of Turkey, stating: "It depends on our own performance to successfully conclude negotiation with the EU; nobody else will do it." The document, both stated, underscored the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) continued commitment to the EU process. -------------- -------------- Partial Suspension Allowed Technical Progress to Resume -------------- -------------- 3.(C) In April 24 meetings with EUR/ERA officer John Robinson, EU Commission Political Counselor Martin Dawson described as cathartic the December 11, 2006 "compromise" to suspend negotiations on eight chapters. It cleared the air and paved the way for technical progress, following what had become a "de facto" suspension of talks. The December process also gave Europe a greater awareness of how strongly Turkey felt unjustly treated on Cyprus. Under the German Presidency, the EU has already opened the Enterprise and Industrial Policy chapter and feasibly could open four more: Economic and Monetary Policy; Statistics; Financial Controls; and possibly Taxation. According to Dawson, Babacan's comfort with financial issues would enable Turkey to deliver on these "economic" chapters. The GOT's Roadmap, though mostly a technical document, was also a welcome sign that the GOT had at least kept EU accession on its agenda. 4.(C) Ahmet Dogan, Political Director at Turkey's EU Secretariat, agreed that the partial suspension allowed a SIPDIS stalled process to restart, at least on technical harmonization issues. The German Presidency would likely open negotiations on the three economic chapters Dawson mentioned, but not Taxation. Turkey would continue to align its laws on all chapters, including the eight suspended chapters, to meet EU benchmarks. Dogan expected that in four years, when Turkey met all benchmarks on the suspended chapters, the Cyprus issue would come to a head because it would then be the only obstacle to opening negotiations on those chapters. -------------- Political Issues Stalled -------------- ANKARA 00000971 002 OF 002 5.(C) Dawson was pessimistic on the overall state of EU-Turkey relations. While the technical efforts are welcome, Turks are using the election-year excuse to delay reforms on political issues that are "the Commission's major emphasis." Turkey had especially let itself down by waffling on amending Turkish Penal Code Article 301 (insulting "Turkishness"). "Turkey is paralyzed. At some point, it will need to decide if it is going to reform or not," Dawson said. The USG could help by engaging in a more "holistic" dialogue with Turkey instead of focusing on high-profile issues such as Article 301 and Halki Seminary. He thought it might be useful for senior US leaders to focus more on underlying "structural problems" such as corruption, judicial problems, and human rights deficiencies. Dawson was emphatic that our annual Human Rights Report remains our most effective tool because it thoroughly and frankly discusses the GOT's shortcomings. 6.(C) Dogan told us election year politics would make fundamental political reform impossible for now. The recent murder of three Christians in Malatya would not help. Some ultranationalists bent on derailing Turkey's EU accession are fueling public skepticism of Europe by linking Christian "missionary" activities in Turkey to the EU. Dogan said opening direct trade to Northern Cyprus would improve the EU's image. He hoped that after parliamentary elections the major parties would show unity on the need for further reforms. The USG could help the process by continuing our "gentle support" for Turkey's candidacy, and helping explain to Europeans the benefits of Turkish immigration to Europe and the strategic value of having Turkey as an EU border state. -------------- EU Legislation Prohibiting Racism, Xenophobia -------------- 7.(C) Dogan told us the GOT was still considering the possible impact of EU legislation requiring members to criminalize racism, xenophobia, or denial of genocide that is likely to incite violence. Turkey, fearing Armenia would try to use the law as another means to declare an Ottoman "genocide" against Armenians, had unsuccessfully lobbied for language that would limit authority to make such a declaration to an international legal tribunal. The GOT believed the "likely to incite violence" language sought by Britain and other members would help prevent politically motivated cases. Still, the legislation, as passed, would allow cases to be brought for "genocide denial" statements when an individual member state has made the determination that a genocide occurred. 8.(C) Comment: The GOT's EU roadmap, prepared with input from across the government, shows the bureaucracy's determination to continue harmonization efforts. While technical level reforms will proceed apace, political issues will remain shelved until after the double election cycle. The makeup of the new government will set the tone for Turkey-EU relations in the coming years. The likely elevation of FM Abdullah Gul -- a strong proponent of Turkey's EU accession -- to the presidency provides hope that support for reforms and accession will continue at the highest levels of the state. End comment. 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