TURKEY: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GUL CAUTIOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000964 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2027 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GUL CAUTIOUSLY WELCOMED; OPPONENTS SNARL REF: A. ANKARA 944 ¶B. ANKARA 916 Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Many in Turkey are cautiously welcoming Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul's nomination for president (ref A) as one that eases national tensions and will serve Turkey's international standing well. Those who dreaded the specter of Prime Minister Erdogan's ascent see Gul in the same light: a threat to the secular republic. The opposition continues to threaten legal entanglements that could have a negative effect on markets, while the military appears to have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. END SUMMARY. Opposition Promises A Fight -------------- ¶2. (C) Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Deniz Baykal has both declared victory -- taking credit for Erdogan not running -- and charged that the republic and the constitution remain under threat. In his April 24 parliamentary group meeting, Baykal portrayed the FM as a spineless servant of Erdogan, the US, the EU, and anyone who directed him. Gul must, he warned, present himself as more than the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) candidate, or he would risk serious problems "at every point, including the Constitutional Court and the presidency." In meeting with Gul, Baykal reportedly told him, "You are Tayyip Erdogan's candidate, not the parliament's or the people's." He repeated his claim that if 367 deputies were not present for the first round of voting (ref B),CHP would apply to the Constitutional Court. He added that CHP would not attend the voting. ¶3. (C) Ali Topuz, CHP deputy group chairman, insists the constitution requires that the parliamentary speaker affirm that at least 367 votes are cast in the first round. As the president is elected by secret ballot, the total number of votes in favor, votes against, and abstentions will confirm the speaker's headcount. A contact in the parliament's Laws Department agreed with Topuz's account, adding that if application is made to the Constitutional Court, the number of ballots cast will be used in reference to the quorum number. Alternatively, per Topuz, a member of the parliamentary speakership board may raise an objection that a quorum does not exist. ¶4. (C) The center-right True Path and Motherland parties are meeting this afternoon to decide strategy. They must balance a possible urge to boycott with potential damage to Turkey's political system, and being dragged down into a CHP-created morass. Military Tight-Lipped -------------- ¶5. (C) Following Gul's nomination, Deputy Chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS),Gen. Ergin Saygun, echoed CHOD Buyukanit's earlier statement that the next president must be faithful to secularism, the social state and democracy. At an April 24 social event, few officers were willing to comment on Gul's nomination. Some deferred to TGS leadership statements or claimed to be too busy. TGS Logistics Chief LTG Arslan acknowledged that the military "has concerns" with an AKP presidency but added, "It is too early to tell if this will adversely affect the country." Contacts told us that TGS sees little difference between Erdogan and Gul in terms of background, beliefs, and motivations and could not be happy with the decision, "but what can they do?" An official from the Undersecretary for Defense Industries said, "If Erdogan nominated Gul, then Gul will be President," but brightly added that, of the top three AKP leaders (Erdogan, Speaker of Parliament Arinc, and Gul),Gul would be the least offensive to the military. Several lower-ranking military officials intimated that Gul would be easier "to manage" than Erdogan. ANKARA 00000964 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Foreign military attaches generally believe that Gul supports a more "Islamist" agenda than Erdogan but were sanguine and did not expect an overtly negative reaction from TGS. Many anticipate that the military will attempt to influence the vote on Gul by pressing opposition members not to participate, thereby rendering Gul's expected election unrepresentative -- a claim they could use against him later on. Media Receives Nomination Warmly; Some Concerns -------------- -- ¶7. (U) Media commentators are largely positive. Most commended PM Erdogan for putting his party and the unity of the country above his personal ambitions. Cengiz Candar (Referans) and Ali Bayramoglu (Yeni Safak) argued Gul's candidacy reduced tensions and regarded it as a major step toward Turkey's "normalization." Erdal Safak (Sabah) noted that that Gul, during his Washington trip in 1997, said that he favored "American-style secularism." Many note that Gul's wife, Hayrunnisa, will be the first "first lady" of Turkey to wear the headscarf, pointing out that in 1998 Mrs. Gul filed a suit with the European Court of Human Rights when she was denied access to a university because she wore the scarf (she withdrew her complaint when her husband became prime minister). Leftist-nationalist Cumhuriyet sees Gul's nomination as "a decision to send the headscarf to the presidential palace." Its columnist Hikmet Cetinkaya notes that as president, Gul will become commander in chief of the Turkish armed forces, and his wife's headscarf "will set a bad example for officers who are expelled from the army if their wives wear headscarves." Academics Not Thrilled -------------- ¶8. (C) Academics were not enthusiastic, but described a Gul candidacy as the lesser of two or three evils. Cankaya University International Relations Professor Tanel Demirel was more alarmist. Having staunch AKPers in the presidency and the prime ministry, with a majority in parliament, would upset the balance between the secular state and the government. (Upon election, the incoming president is legally bound to renounce party affiliations.) With Gul as president, Erdogan would be pressured to push through an Islamist agenda on headscarves, imam-hatip schools, and appointments because, unlike President Sezer, Gul would not veto those decisions. At some point, the secular state would respond. In the lead-up to the fall parliamentary elections, there would be more mud-slinging between the military and the government; mobilization of civil society through protests and marches; and forceful statements by the military. If the Turkish electorate fails to "adjust" their votes to assure the AKP cannot lead a solo or coalition government, he concluded, "I don't want to be here to see what happens." Executives Pleased, Markets Cautious -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Key business figures were supportive of Gul. The CEOs of the Sabanci and Zorlu groups gushed in their public statements, perhaps motivated by a desire to remain in AKP's good graces. The head of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, closely identified with the ruling party, was also positive. Market analysts were more balanced, recognizing that Gul is viewed as a more conciliatory figure than Erdogan, but noting that the headscarf issue remains a source of tension. The financial markets, having rallied last week as the consensus shifted away from an Erdogan candidacy, fell. ¶10. (SBU) For weeks, market analysts and investors have been telling us they are more focused on the parliamentary elections -- and the risk of a coalition government -- than on the presidency. Erdogan's decision to remain Prime Minister, presumed to help AKP's chances this fall, is a net plus. Gul's ascendancy to the presidency could move Ali Babacan to the foreign ministry -- a serious loss on the economic side. Other key economic leaders, Abdullatif Sener and Kemal Unakitan, have weak track records. ANKARA 00000964 003 OF 003 COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Gul's biggest hurdle appears to be CHP's effort to get the Constitutional Court to invalidate the election, an effort that may come back to bite them at the parliamentary ballot box. Looking further ahead, Gul's elevation may just postpone a crisis here over secularism and fundamentalism. Former ambassador to the United States and head of Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM) Faruk Logoglu observed that Gul would face the same obstacles and problems Erdogan would have. Turkey will have to face these issues eventually, and the fall parliamentary elections may be the venue. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON