TURKEY'S NEXT PRESIDENT: FM ABDULLAH GUL

UNCLAS ANKARA 000944

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEXT PRESIDENT: FM ABDULLAH GUL

REF: ANKARA 916 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) The suspense is over. PM Tayyip Erdogan, at an April
24 meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP),
announced that FM and Deputy PM Abdullah Gul is AKP's
candidate to be Turkey's 11th president. AKP has the votes
to elect its candidate by the third round, all but assuring
Gul's ascension to head of state.


2. (U) After months of speculation, largely focused on
whether Erdogan would run, AKP has put its top diplomat and
world statesman forward as its presidential candidate.
Erdogan's announcement was greeted with tumultuous applause
and cheers from assembled AKP MPs. Gul's nomination makes
sense for AKP:

--It places the top three AKP figures in the country in the
top three positions: Gul as President and head of state;
Bulent Arinc as speaker of parliament (and number two in
protocol rank after the President); and Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
who remains by far the country's most popular political
figure, as PM in the run-up to parliamentary elections later
this year.

--It moves into in Ataturk's seat in Cankaya an
English-speaking world statesman who can, as Erdogan has
emphasized in recent weeks, represent Turkey ably at home and
abroad.

--It puts a "headscarf" in Cankaya, the first real victory
for the pious in AKP after nearly five years in power. This
was the longest-running objection to Erdogan, whose wife
Emine is covered; Gul's wife, Hayrinussa, wears a headscarf
as well.


3. (SBU) Gul has been a figure on the Turkish national
political scene since 1991, when he was first elected to
parliament as an MP for Necmettin Erbakan's pro-Islam Welfare
Party. Prior to that, he worked for eight years as an
economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah.
Reelected to parliament in 1995, he served as State Minister
and government spokesman in then-PM Erbakan's short-lived
government. Gul became a founding member of AKP in August
2001, where he has always been both Erdogan's closest
political partner and rival. Gul served as Prime Minister
from December 3, 2002 until March 14, 2003, when Erdogan was
sworn in. He has been a leading figure in Turkey's push for
EU membership; the drama of Gul's late-night arrival in
Luxembourg on October 3, 2005 to launch Turkey's formal
candidacy riveted Turks. As FM, Gul enjoys good relations
with many of his European and Middle Eastern counterparts.
Gul, less fiery and more predictable than Erdogan, presents
to the world the reasonable, carefully considered face of
Turkish politics.


4. (SBU) In announcing Gul's candidacy, Erdogan stated that
he had taken the (anti-AKP) arrows over the past months,
leaving Gul virtually untouched. As Foreign Minister, Gul
has maintained good relations with the military, who will
have to consider how they will deal with a non-Erdogan AKPer
-- with a headscarved wife -- in Cankaya. Of the "top three"
AKP, Gul is arguably the most palatable to the military,
though he carries the weight of AKP outreach to Hamas, of
which the military strongly disapproved. For AKP, he is a
consensus candidate around whom all can rally; he has little
of Erdogan's baggage. For the opposition, Gul is less easy
to bash than Erdogan. He has carried Turkey's flag to the
EU, as well as on national consensus issues such as Cyprus
and Armenia, most recently visiting the "TRNC" ten days ago.


5. (U) The presidential election calendar, as just announced
by parliament's consultative board, will be as follows:

--Friday, April 27: first round
--Wednesday, May 2: second round
--Wednesday, May 9: third round
--Tuesday, May 15 (if needed): fourth and final round.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON