TURKISH OPPOSITION'S DESPERATE MANEUVERING AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000916 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKISH OPPOSITION'S DESPERATE MANEUVERING AS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NEARS REF: A. 06 ANKARA 6723 ¶B. ANKARA 0011 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. With little ammunition to force PM Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to present a consensus candidate for Turkey's next president, the opposition has resurrected its threat to boycott the first round of voting (reftel A). Relying on a specious interpretation of the constitution, the Republican People's Party (CHP) contends that 367 members, rather than the normal 184, constitute a quorum for the presidential vote (reftel B). AKP, with 354 seats, can easily satisfy the normal quorum, but would need 13 additional deputies to meet the higher requirement. True Path Party (DYP) leader Mehmet Agar, following his April 17 meeting with Erdogan, indicated that DYP's four MPs may not support CHP's walk-out attempt. Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) head Erkan Mumcu reportedly wouldn't guarantee AKP its 20 seats after meeting with Erdogan. We do not believe the CHP "super quorum" argument has merit. It is unclear how the Constitutional Court would rule, though its chief judge has pledged a timely decision if the issue is submitted. As Erdogan works behind the scenes to try to ensure that even the super-quorum is met, all CHP can achieve is disruption of the process. If that were to trigger early parliamentary elections, AKP -- not CHP -- would likely stand to gain. END SUMMARY. The Argument -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The argument that a quorum of 367 deputies is required for the initial round of presidential voting first surfaced last fall as a maneuver to try to block Erdogan's candidacy and force AKP to propose a consensus candidate acceptable to opposition forces. Constitutional Article 96 clearly sets the parliament's quorum at one-third of the total MPs (184),unless otherwise stipulated. Article 102, which governs the presidential election process, does not specify a different quorum. It provides that two-thirds of the parliament (367 MPs) is required to approve a candidate in the first two rounds of voting, with an absolute majority (276 MPs) needed to elect the president in the third round. AKP has enough seats to convene with a normal quorum and to elect the president in the third round. With 13 additional votes, the party could elect the president in the first or second round of voting. CHP's Tactics -------------- ¶3. (C) Opposition CHP, with 153 seats, seized on the strained quorum interpretation and threatened to boycott the initial voting to prevent a quorum from forming. They promised to challenge in the Constitutional Court any voting with less than 367 members present, a move that would disrupt and delay the presidential election. As the parliament's legal advisor Serefe Iba told us, the court has been known to make politicized decisions in the past and could choose to do so now to pressure AKP to present a candidate acceptable across the board. Constitutional Court Chief Judge Tulay Tugcu, who refused to take a position on the issue, has confirmed that the 11-member court would render a timely decision within three days -- if a challenge is brought -- allowing the presidential election process to continue. (The constitution requires a three day pause between each voting round.) Tugcu was quoted on April 10 as saying, "The Constitutional Court would not become a part of that chaos." ¶4. (SBU) Were the court to uphold the 367 quorum requirement and invalidate the first round of voting, the election process would be stalled until AKP could assemble 367 deputies. While the constitution does not provide for this situation, it does state that new parliamentary elections will be held immediately if a candidate is not elected after four rounds of voting. The incumbent president would remain in office until the president-elect takes over. Given AKP's strong standing in the polls, and the possibility some voters might penalize CHP for trying to torpedo the election process, a truncated presidential election, followed immediately by parliamentary elections, is likely to return AKP with as strong (or even stronger) a hold on power. AKP Strategy -------------- ¶5. (SBU) At an April 12 press conference, Speaker Bulent Arinc stated he will open the voting session once he sees 184 deputies present. He criticized CHP for trying to escalate tensions by pushing the 367 argument, and noted that the 184 MP quorum was followed without objection for the election of former presidents Turgut Ozal, Suleyman Demirel and Ahmet Necdet Sezer. Arinc said the date of the first round of voting -- either April 26 or May 3 -- will be decided on April 24. ¶6. (SBU) Erdogan has started to work the issue behind the scenes by courting smaller opposition parties. His April 17 meetings with DYP leader Mehmet Agar and ANAVATAN head Erkan Mumcu yielded at least a tentative pledge from Agar that DYP's four MPs will not support a CHP walk-out. Mumcu (with whom the PM enjoys a frosty relationship) reportedly offered no guarantees for his 20 seats but was quoted as stating, "We will not act with the CHP". Their leanings in this case seem aimed at the CHP and the tension and uncertainty the 367 quorum argument is generating for the country. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) CHP's attempts to force AKP to negotiate a consensus presidential candidate look increasingly desperate as the nomination process nears its close on April 25. They have only sown confusion and alienated Erdogan to the point where he refuses to meet with CHP leaders. While CHP blusters, Erdogan is forging ties of convenience with other opposition parties to undercut a possible CHP boycott. If CHP forces the issue and disrupts the presidential election, it will bear full responsibility for the outcome. End Comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON