KAZAKHSTAN FM VISIT TO TURKEY -- BOSPORUS BYPASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000894 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017 TAGS: PREL EPET KZ TU SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN FM VISIT TO TURKEY -- BOSPORUS BYPASS AND TCP Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (c) During a recent meeting on various subjects, Turkish MFA Deputy U/S for Eurasia Unal Cevikoz described the results of Kazakh FM Murat Tazhin's visit to Turkey on April 5. Cevikoz attached significance to the fact that this visit was the first by a Kazakh foreign minister to Turkey since 1999 and that Ankara was Tazhin's first bilateral destination after Moscow since becoming minister. Political discussions regarding Central Asia apparently followed a predictable form, and there were no significant political developments. ¶2. (c) Energy was at the top of Turkey's agenda, Cevikoz indicated. A first objective was to get Kazakh support for Turkey's proposed Samsun-Ceyhan oil bypass route around the Bosporus. According to Cevikoz, the Kazakhs said they will give the project strong political support, though they caveated this by noting that throughput guarantees, costs and other technical issues need to be addressed if the project is to be realized. According to Cevikoz, the Kazakhs made clear that they are no longer keen on the proposed Burgas-Alexandroupolis bypass, which they were being encouraged/forced by the Russians to pursue -- including under threat of reducing CPC volumes if the Kazakhs did not act interested. Moscow reportedly rejected giving up any of its share of ownership of the line, and the Kazakhs did not expect Greece or Bulgaria would be any more forthcoming. Kazakhstan wants to be an investor, and it wants to have more options than Russian-controlled ones. In comments here to the press, Tazhin said that the Kazakh Energy Minister's expression of support for Burgas-Alexandroupolis a few days earlier was premature. ¶3. (c) A second objective was to nudge forward prospects for trans-Caspian gas. Cevikoz said the Turks were concerned by a recent El Pais interview in which President Nazarbayev reportedly stated that a trans-Caspian gas pipeline (TCP) "has no perspective." FM Tazhin told the Turks that Kazakhstan regards TCP as facing many political and technical hurdles, including the lack of a Caspian delimitation agreement. Tazhin said Kazakhstan does not oppose TCP, but just doesn't see it happening any time soon. While the Kazakhs and the Turks apparently agreed on continuing quiet work with the Turkmen and Azeris on the TCP idea, they both believe that any public or vigorous push would needlessly irritate the Russians, Cevikoz said. ¶4. (c) Ambassador told Cevikoz that the US supports multiple bypass routes around the Bosporus, believes that there will ultimately be room for more than one bypass, and does not take it as a given that Burgas-Alexandroupolis will actually be built, last month's announcement notwithstanding. He said that we are pursuing TCP carefully. We do not consider the lack of a delimitation agreement a barrier to the development of additional pipelines in the Caspian. He said that we have been advising the new government in Ashgabat to be cautious in committing additional gas volumes to Russia. These could be key to developing TCP and other alternative export routes that would be advantageous to Turkmenistan (and Turkey). Ambassador also highlighted the importance of Azeri-Turkmen reconciliation and suggested that Turkey is well-placed to play a helpful role. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON