MESSAGE TO PM ERDOGAN: TURKEY MUST REMAIN SECULAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000876 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: MESSAGE TO PM ERDOGAN: TURKEY MUST REMAIN SECULAR REF: ANKARA 0861 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4( b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Turkey's secularists staged a triple play to deter PM Erdogan from running for president as the election process gets underway on April 16. On April 14, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators turned out in Ankara for a peaceful rally in support of secularism and the Republic. The event was billed as an apolitical, democratic statement against threats to Turkey's secular system. It followed strong remarks on April 13 by Turkish President Sezer, who said the Republic is under unprecedented threat in a speech delivered at a military academy in Istanbul. Sezer's speech and the rally, on the heels of similarly pointed warnings by Turkey's Chief of Defense General Buyukanit on April 12 (reftel),send a forceful message to PM Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) as elections approach: Turkey is secular and will remain secular. Turkey's military, president and secular public want that slogan to echo in Erdogan's ears as he mulls over whether to run for president. His reaction may be the opposite of their intent, if only to prove he won't be bullied out of the job. The outcome will likely not be clear until April 25, when the window for nominations closes. End Summary. Rally for the Republic -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Between 350,000 and 500,000 Turks turned out in Ankara to "defend the Republic" on April 14 in a peaceful rally billed as above party politics and ideology. Participants abided by a ban on political party placards, and no anti-Erdogan or anti-AKP signs could be seen in the sea of red and white Turkish flags. Banners stating, "We must defend our Republic because tomorrow will be too late", "(The presidency) is secular and will remain secular", and "We don't want an imam at Cankaya" (the president's residence) demonstrated the threat many believe an Erdogan presidency poses to the Republic's secular system. Turkish flags hung from windows all over town in a show of support for the rally. Many from outside Ankara came to the capital for the all-day event, which remained peaceful and positive. The enthusiastic crowd, including Turks in their 80's, families with small children, and a mix of social and economic classes, chanted, "Turkey is secular and will remain secular." Two FSNs said their octogenarian parents insisted on participating in order to "defend the Republic". ¶3. (SBU) Press coverage largely portrayed the rally as an encouraging display of Turks peacefully exercising their democratic rights. Most columnists noted the message being sent to Erdogan and AKP: we want a president who will defend our secular Republic against political Islam. A few objected to the nationalist tone of the speeches at the start of the rally, which was initially organized by the statist Ataturkist Thought Association. Notably, the rally was not addressed by any columnist in Yeni Safak, the newspaper often seen as linked to the government. Sezer Says Republic is Threatened -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In his untelevised April 13 speech at Turkey's War Academies, President Sezer said Turkey's secular regime is more threatened today than ever before in its 84 year history. He named separatist terrorist acts and fundamentalist activities as the main threats Turkey faces. Domestic forces are working to undermine the Republic and foreign powers are pushing Turkey to become a moderate Islamic republic as a model for other Muslim countries in the region, Sezer stated. While such a move might be a step forward for other Islamic countries, it would be a step back for Turkey. Sezer warned that moderate Islam is likely to turn radical very soon, adding that religious fundamentalism has reached a critical stage. He reiterated General Buyukanit's charge that some are trying to weaken the Turkish Armed Forces, and stressed that the military has a constitutional duty to preseve the secular regime. ¶5. (SBU) Sezer emphasized that Turkey remains committed to international cooperation in the fight against terrorism, adding that Turkey reserves its right under international law to self-defense. He called for contacts with Iraq and US ANKARA 00000876 002 OF 002 officials to yield results quickly to resolve the PKK problem. By undermining stability and fundamental rights and freedoms, terrorism makes pluralist civil societies ineffective, he said. Sezer blamed globalization for increasing inequities and threats to society, and noted that Turkey plans to build a zone of peace, prosperity and security around the country to minimize risks. He included Armenia within the zone but added that good neighborly relations and a commitment to international laws is a pre-requisite to cooperation. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Although the rally to defend the Republic was billed as pro-secularism not anti-Erodogan, the "threat" that brought many to the streets was political Islam. Erdogan describes himself as a conservative democrat but many secularists suspect he still has Islamist ambitions, given his party's origins as an offshoot of an Islamist party that the military forced from power in 1997. The rally, Sezer's speech and Buyukanit's remarks represent the opposition's frontal assault to deter Erdogan from running for president as the nominations process begins on April 16. It is still not clear whether Erdogan will run; his possible candidacy has heightened tensions as supporters and opponents agitate for him to make up his mind. Turks may have to wait until the window for nominations closes on April 25 to learn his decision, and their future. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON