TURKEY MAINTAINS HARD LINE ON MAKHMOUR CAMP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000874 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2022 TAGS: PTER PREF AORC PREL MOPS TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKEY MAINTAINS HARD LINE ON MAKHMOUR CAMP REF: A. ANKARA 861 ¶B. ANKARA 833 AND PREVIOUS ¶C. ANKARA 548 AND PREVIOUS ¶D. GENEVA 700 Classified By: Ambassador Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkey is not ready to agree on moving forward on closing the Makhmour Camp, MFA Director General Guven told the Ambassador April 13. Guven remains unconvinced that the PKK has been expelled from the camp; believes the Iraqis' insistence on third-country resettlement will lead to the camp remaining in place for years; and said the GOI's response to broader Turkish demands on the PKK will condition his government's approach to Makhmour. Guven's intransigence likely reflects attitudes of more senior Turks that the stakes are higher than closing this camp. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador called on MFA Director General for Security Affairs (S/CT equivalent) Hayati Guven April 13 to encourage the GOT to take a forward-leaning position on Turkey-Iraq-UNHCR negotiations scheduled for April 19 in Geneva on closing the Makhmour Camp. Ambassador pressed Guven to demonstrate progress by agreeing to the provisions of the draft Tripartite Agreement on voluntary repatriation to Turkey of Makhmour refugees, with the understanding that the side agreement on other durable solutions as well as additional Turkish concerns must still be addressed. Guven demurred, reporting that he had not been able to obtain Turkish interagency approval on the current draft (specifically, contentious preambular language asserting the refugees only left Turkey due to terrorist pressures, to which we know UNHCR will not agree). ¶3. (C) More importantly, however, Guven outlined three Turkish concerns. First, the GOT remains convinced that the PKK is maintaining its intimidating presence in the camp (UNHCR and U.S. beliefs to the contrary). He said he would bring evidence with him to Geneva to demonstrate this. The PKK must be totally eliminated from the camp for Turkey to move forward. ¶4. (C) Second, Iraq's insistence that third country resettlement be a real option for the refugees (versus repatriation or integration into northern Iraq) is a "mission impossible" and will only lead to residents remaining in the camp in perpetuity. ¶5. (C) Finally, events and policy vis-a-vis the PKK and northern Iraq in general are fast-moving (see refs a and b). The GOT has passed a note to the GOI outlining specific demands on the PKK. Progress on Makhmour, Guven underscored, is tied to Iraqi progress in meeting Turkey's larger expectations. Furthermore, Makhmour is relatively low on Turkey's list of counterterrorism priorities. ¶6. (C) Ambassador pushed back, emphasizing that the only effective way to eliminate the PKK's presence in the camp is to close it once and for all. We understand and support Turkey's position that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," but it sends a negative message to all sides if Turkey cannot even agree in principle on the Tripartite Agreement and move on to other parts of the negotiation. ¶7. (C) Regarding the PKK's presence in the camp, Ambassador asked if a Turkish visit to the camp might allay these concerns. Guven was dubious, asserting that the PKK had had advance notice of the Jan. 17 weapons search and, similarly, would know about any Turkish visit well in advance, giving the terrorists time to go to ground. ¶8. (C) Comment: Despite what we thought were recent assurances that the GOT was ready to proceed meaningfully on closing Makhmour, Guven's presentation indicates that Turkey is not ready to proceed on any but its own draconian terms. Guven is correct that events are moving fast here on the PKK ANKARA 00000874 002 OF 002 front, and his hard line likely reflects that of the Turkish leadership. The current atmospherics -- such as CHOD GEN Buyukanit's April 12 public support for a cross-border operation (ref a) -- suggest that for now the stakes are much higher than closing this camp. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON