TURKISH ANGER CONTINUES OVER SHIFT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000832 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU IZ EG SUBJECT: TURKISH ANGER CONTINUES OVER SHIFT OF NEIGHBORS-PLUS MINISTERIAL TO EGYPT REF: A. ANKARA 822 ¶B. ANKARA 812 ¶C. ANKARA 805 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkish officials remain persuaded that the Iraqi Kurds, then the Egyptian and Iraqi governments, essentially conspired to shift the "neighbors-plus" ministerial from Istanbul to Egypt. They have serious doubts as to whether all neighbors will attend the meeting, though Turkey will not seek to block it. President Talabani (on April 9) and PM Maliki (April 10) have placed calls to PM Erdogan in an effort to defuse tensions over this and other contentious issues (see refs a and b). Turkey is so angry in part because the ruling party had hoped to use the ministerial to showcase its regional leadership in order to blunt criticism of the GOT's overall Iraq policy, in particular deep domestic concerns on the PKK and Kirkuk issues. End summary. ¶2. (C) In April 7 conversations with the Ambassador, senior Turkish officials expressed dismay at what they viewed as a dramatic shift by the GOI to hold the "neighbors-plus" ministerial in Egypt instead of Istanbul. These same officials told us that PM Erdogan and FonMin Gul will need to decide about Turkey's attendance at the ministerial. Acting GOT Special Envoy for Iraq Ozcelik told us April 9 that it was clear based on his conversations with the Egyptian Ambassador here that Egypt and Iraq had simply decided between themselves that the "neighbors-plus" ministerial would be held in Egypt. He said the GOT had not yet decided whether FonMin Gul will attend the meeting in Egypt, and added "we will not try to block this meeting," if only because Turkey did not want others to accuse the GOT of sour grapes. ¶3. (C) FM/PM Adviser Davutoglu, MFA Undersecretary (D-equivalent) Apakan, and GOT Deputy Special Envoy for Iraq Ozcelik all acknowledged Iraq's right to prefer a different site. They pointed out that the Iraq neighbors, process had previously always worked on consensus, and the GOT -- and, they claimed Syria, Iran, and perhaps Saudi Arabia -- all oppose Egypt as the venue. Ozcelik expressed doubt that the Iranians would attend any meeting in Egypt, and noted the "silence" to date from the Saudis and Syrians. They asserted that Turkey always intended the neighbors-plus process to ease Iraq's relations with others in the region, but Baghdad's decision may make things worse or even "kill the process." Ambassador countered out to his interlocutors that Iraqi FonMin Zebari had taken pains in his April 7 announcement to thank Turkey for offering to host this meeting and to affirm that the decision to hold the meeting in Egypt was not a commentary on Turkey-Iraq relations. ¶4. (C) Davutoglu and Apakan (and GOT Special Envoy Celikkol in a previous conversation reported ref c) suggested that the Iraqi Kurds were behind the move. Ozcelik also reasserted that Turkey has "reliable information" that President Talabani and FonMin Zebari had persuaded PM Maliki that the meeting should "never be held in Istanbul." Ambassador repeated that Turkey should not assume that the Iraqi Kurds are responsible for the change in venue. Davutoglu and Apakan noted that if it turns out that PM Maliki has decided to "work against Turkey," the GOT will take this into account when evaluating Turkey's relations with Iraq. Turkey will, however, continue to work with us to stabilize Iraq. ¶5. (C) Ambassador stressed how much the Secretary appreciates Turkey's efforts thus far and hopes and expects that the GOT will continue to play a constructive role in Iraq. As if to underscore the point, in addition to two Secretary-Gul telcons over the weekend, shortly after our meeting with Ozcelik, we learned that President Talabani had phoned PM Erdogan. We also learned April 10 that PM Maliki and PM Erdogan were to talk by phone the same day. ANKARA 00000832 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Comment: The GOT had hoped to use hosting the conference on the eve of the presidential election to demonstrate the ruling Justice and Development Party's leadership in dealing with the region's most difficult issue: Iraq. This would have blunted opposition and military criticism that the GOT is weak on Iraq and especially on the hot-button issues of Kirkuk and the PKK. Now the GOT leadership is left holding an empty bag as PKK violence and the war of words with KRG President Barzani heat up (refs a and b). Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON