TURK-AZERI DIASPORA TAKES AIM AT ARMENIAN DIASPORA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000641

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM AJ TU
SUBJECT: TURK-AZERI DIASPORA TAKES AIM AT ARMENIAN DIASPORA

REF: A. ANKARA 468

B. ANKARA 159

C. YEREVAN 149

Classified by Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for
Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: A recent Turkish-Azeri diasporas forum in
Baku is seeking to develop an organized counterbalance to the
influence of the Armenian diaspora worldwide. Possible
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement looks bleak, although MFA
sources tell us FM Gul plans to approach Secretary Rice with
a positive move after Turkish parliamentary elections
currently scheduled for November. End Summary.


2. (U) According to Turkish MFA and press reports, 513
businessmen and prominent political and civil society leaders
representing Turkish and Azeri diasporas from 48 countries
participated in the inaugural Forum of World Azerbaijani and
Turkish Diaspora Organizations on March 9 in Baku. Azeri
President Aliyev and Turkish PM Erdogan gave opening
speeches. Along with participants from Central Asia, Europe,
North America, Russia and Iran, "TRNC President" Mehmet Ali
Talat also attended.


3. (C) Participants adopted three major resolutions: a "Joint
Strategy on the Activities of the Azerbaijani and Turkish
diaspora organizations," an "Appeal to the Turkic-speaking
Peoples," and a broader "Baku Declaration." MFA Acting DDG
for Caucasus and Central Asia Suleyman Gokce called the
statements generic in nature and said organizers did not
decide upon the timing and location of a second meeting.


4. (C) Gokce told us that Turkey and Azerbaijan jointly came
up with the Turk-Azeri diaspora idea one year ago. The
Azeris then took the initiative to establish this forum for
"dialogue and cooperation." Gokce asserted that the forum is
not solely targeted at countering the Armenian diaspora's
influence and is not intended to push the Armenian government
into a corner. Gokce noted that it would also look at
improving joint lobbying, holding common cultural events and
establishing stronger business ties.


5. (C) On prospects for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement in the
near future, Gokce opined that even a symbolic gesture by
Turkey towards Armenia at this point would not be enough for
Armenian diaspora hardliners. He said FM Gul will approach
Secretary Rice with a positive move, but not until after the

SIPDIS
Turkish parliamentary elections currently scheduled for
November 4. He called Armenian FM Oskanian "intransigent and
unhelpful" vis--vis Turkey, particularly as Armenia's May 12
elections approach and Oskanian must position himself
accordingly. Gokce raised concerns about recent changes in
Armenian law that he said increased the influence and power
of the Armenian diaspora in GOAM politics.


6. (C) While in Baku, PM Erdogan also visited Sangachal
terminal (the starting point of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan
pipeline),inaugurated the new Turkish Embassy with President
Aliyev and visited two Turkish schools. The Turkish
Ambassador also organized a 300-person working lunch between
the Turkish and Azeri delegations. Gokce said Erdogan and
Aliyev met one-on-one but he had no details on what was
discussed.


7. (C) Comment: The timing of this forum comes ahead of the
April 24 Armenian Remembrance Day and the possibility
Congress could pass an Armenian genocide resolution soon.
Although Gokce took pains to emphasize that the forum was not
only targeted at countering the Armenian diaspora's
influence, the forum's aim is clear: both the Turks and
Azeris want to beat the powerful Armenian diaspora
organizations at their own game. The evidence indicates they
have a long way to go. End Comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON