TURKEY'S WATER WORRIES - WAITING FOR APRIL SHOWERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000639 SIPDIS USDOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: ENGR SENV EAGR TU SUBJECT: TURKEY'S WATER WORRIES - WAITING FOR APRIL SHOWERS ANKARA 00000639 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With only 1642 cubic meters/year per capita usable water, Turkey is far from a water-rich country and acutely subject to increased dryness due to global warming. Now a particularly dry winter has left many of Turkey's reservoirs at low levels. Although Ankara authorities have cited a wide variety of figures for months supply in hand, officials optimistically agree that the solution is to wait for spring rains. The state water authority DSI has undertaken a project to link an existing reservoir to Ankara by pipeline. If spring rains fail to materialize, the municipality would implement conservation measures. There appears to be no need to panic (yet) about water shortages in the capital. Concerns about drought and global warming will inform Turkey's preparations for hosting the World Water Forum in 2009. End Summary. -------------- April Showers Bring May Flowers -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Turkey is experiencing one of its driest winters ever, particularly in central Anatolia, including the capital of Ankara. The Ankara municipality has announced a disconcerting variety of numbers from six weeks to seven months for its supply, feeding worry and speculation in the press and the public. Turkey's State Water Administration (DSI) Study and Planning Head Ahmet Hamdi Alpaslan told us that Ankara's reservoirs currently hold a three-month supply, compared to the normal nine month supply expected at this time of the year. Noting that 50-60% of the year's rain normally falls in the February-April period, he asserted that it was too early to be overly concerned. Alpaslan admitted that if spring rains failed to materialize, the city would have to implement conservation measures such as reductions in car washing and park watering. He noted that DSI was working on a new pipeline link to the Kesikopru reservoir on the Kizilirmak River, which would supplement Ankara's water reserve by 250 million cubic meters by this summer, compared to summer daily consumption of 1 million cu m. Noting that the press raised concerns about the Yuvacik reservoir near Izmit substantially drying up last January, Alpaslan stressed that the modest winter precipitation had now filled it to 55% capacity. ¶3. (SBU) In the face of these short-term woes, the Environment, Energy, and Agriculture Ministries recently collaborated on a report on "Climate Change, Drought, and Water Management", which focuses on the long-term risks Turkey faces with respect to desertification and drought from climate change. The recent UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change report identifies Turkey as an area at risk from global-warming induced water shortages. Turkey's report calls for action on new measures in energy and water conservation, planting of trees, and improvements in irrigation and erosion controls. Although Turkey's EU accession would eventually require adherence to the Kyoto Protocol, many authorities cite the need for more time and/or negative economic effects from the Kyoto Protocol. In a press conference in early February, the three Ministers faced more questions about the short-term water shortage. Their main solution proposed was to wait for spring rains, claiming that it was too early to speak of a drought. -------------- The Rain Fails to Fall Mainly on the Plain -------------- ¶4. DSI Alpaslan said that the main shortages were in the interior of Anatolia. He claimed that there was no significant problem in Istanbul and the Black Sea regions. Ministry officials said alarm bells were not yet ringing, but admitted drinking water shortages in Ankara, Bursa, and Izmit provinces. Experts said that there was a cumulative shortfall in precipitation from last year of 16.1 % in Turkey, with shortfalls as high as 36% in Marmara, 43% in Aegean, and 54% in western Anatolia, compared to last year, which was a relatively normal year. ¶5. (SBU) The Ankara Mayor's chief Advisor, Murat Dogu, was sanguine about the water situation, but could not clarify why the municipality has announced six weeks supply of water in January and seven months in March, with little rain in the interim. His views on the water shortage were not confidence inspiring; he was critical of the scheme to take water from the Kizilirmak river and dismissive of city conservation measures. ¶6. (SBU) DSI and its corps of engineers are tasked with building more dams to realize Turkey's hydroelectric potential, aiming to increase the share of electricity from hydroelectric sources above ANKARA 00000639 002.2 OF 002 the current share of 25-30%. DSI recently conducted a comprehensive water survey for Turkey, citing Turkey's per capita usable water at 1,642 cubic meters/year, which classifies it as a country facing risk of water scarcity. The report notes that Turkey has per capita water potential of 3,690 cubic meters/year, if Turkey can build more dams and implement better irrigation practices. The largest planned dam is the Ilisu on the Tigris, controversial because of trans-boundary issues with Iraq, and because it will flood the historic city of Hasankeyf. Although the government commemorated the project's groundbreaking in February, Austrian-German-Swiss financing is still under study for acceptable environmental and social criteria. The Austrian Commercial Counselor said the Austrian export credit agency had approved financing, but the other two agencies were still evaluating the criteria. ¶7. (SBU) In this climate of water worries, as well as concerns about water pollution, Turkey hosts the international Congress on Management of River Basins in Antalya March 22-24. The congress also facilitated preparatory meetings for the 2009 World Water Forum which will be hosted by Istanbul. WWF used the opportunity to issue a warning that pollution, dams, and climate change pose serious risk to the world's rivers. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: The Ankara Municipality's dismissive approach to the water shortages is worrisome, but does not appear to warrant panic. The relevant ministries' confidence in spring rains solving the problem may be overly rosy and optimistic, but Ankara can wait a few months to assess summer water stocks and associated plans for assuring adequate supply. Wilson