TURKEY: PRESSURE MOUNTING ON PM ERDOGAN BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000588 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRESSURE MOUNTING ON PM ERDOGAN BEFORE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS REF: ANKARA 563 Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Erdogan is the target of a growing pressure campaign from various quarters in the run-up to the filing for presidential candidacy on April 16. Recent remarks by military and opposition leaders, along with provocative media campaigns, are ratcheting up the tension in an effort to force the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to respond or, preferably, stumble. Numerous events planned for the election period will also offer Erdogan's adversaries an opportunity to provoke and intensify the current atmosphere of anxiety. The potential for this pressure to generate a crisis situation is real, though opponents of an Erdogan presidency have so far largely been unable to mobilize the public. Both Erdogan and the establishment, particularly the TGS, must calculate carefully the risks of further increasing tensions in an already volatile atmosphere. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Chief of the General Staff General Yasar Buyukanit's public sparring with the AKP (reported reftel) has elevated tensions here. Combined with the 10th anniversary of the TGS's "February 28 process" (the post-modern coup that resulted in the collapse of the then-Islamist-led government),this has renewed focus on just how delicate the balance is between military and the AKP-led civilian government. Former military officers, often interpreted as messengers for TGS, have been forthright in their opposition to an Erdogan presidency. Former TGS chief General Gunes recently said that Erdogan should not become the president; should he insist on it, "chaos will emerge" because the military would refuse to go to the presidential palace (in part because Erdogan's wife wears a headscarf). He spoke favorably of former TGS chief General Hilmi Ozkok becoming president. ¶3. (C) Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman Deniz Baykal on the same day also publicly invoked the specter of "chaos." He resurrected his claim that AKP needs two-thirds of parliament to open the session for the first round of presidential voting (which would require the presence of at least 13 non-AKP members) and asserted that the issue may be referred to the Constitutional Court. If the Court were to find that the first round had not been valid and conclude that the president had not been elected legitimately, Turkey would automatically hold parliamentary elections in 90 days. The opposition pushed this strategy forcefully in January in an attempt to force the AKP to put up a compromise candidate or hold parliamentary elections prior to, rather than after, the presidential election. Although many experts on parliamentary procedure concluded that both the constitution and historical precedent indicate only one-third of the total seats is necessary to convene parliament, for weeks newspapers were filled with prominent jurists defending the higher threshold. ¶4. (C) CHP-ally Cumhuriyet newspaper has been running a sustained campaign of provocative prime-time television commercials and front-page, above-the-fold warnings about the presidential election for several weeks. Mainly funereal black and bearing the birth and imaginary death dates of the founder of modern Turkey (1881-2007),the ads warn, "On May 15, Turkey will go back in time 100 years... Are you aware of the danger? Defend your republic." Clearly frustrated with the bogeyman tactics, Erdogan reportedly told his parliamentary group that the opposition "wants to scare people and make them passive. Turkey will not become this kingdom of horror." ¶5. (C) Apart from the pressures already brought to bear, several upcoming events could provide openings for provoking social disturbance. Some could take place once the presidential election window opens on April 16. The Ataturkist Thought Association plans to hold republican parades two days before the election period begins. Middle East Technical University's alumni association is organizing a meeting of 500 NGOs to discuss the presidential issue. DISK Labor Confederation plans to hold its May 1 rally in Taksim Square in central Istanbul -- a location they have shunned for 30 years, since its May Day rally resulted in a number of deaths; DISK has already made clear its opposition to an Erdogan presidency. ANKARA 00000588 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) COMMENT. The military and some opposition leaders seem determined to flash the crisis signs ahead of any AKP (particularly Erdogan) bid for the presidency. Anti-Erdogan and anti-AKP impulses are deeply felt in some sectors of society, and -- although they vary widely -- polls indicate that many Turks would not favor the perceived imbalance of an AKP triple crown (prime ministry, parliament speaker, and presidency). One disturbing development is the mushrooming of ultra-nationalist, racist organizations whose broader agenda encompasses opposition to an Erdogan presidency; many of these like-minded hate-groups are run by or associated with retired military officers and have close ties to an array of media, from a daily newspaper to several television stations. With less than five weeks until the opening of the presidential election period, Erdogan's opponents have underwhelmed with their street presence. If state establishment power centers remain true to form, they will flex their muscles behind closed doors and use tactics such as threatening to publicize a rumored dossier on Erdogan's corrupt or immoral activities. The temperature here will continue to heat up, and more dramatic events during the presidential race and its aftermath seem likely. END COMMENT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON