TURKEY: ERDOGAN SUPPORTS SINIORA IN LEBANON, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000050

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2017
TAGS: PREL TU LE SY
SUBJECT: TURKEY: ERDOGAN SUPPORTS SINIORA IN LEBANON, BUT
TURKEY MORE INTERESTED IN STABILITY

REF: 06 ANKARA 6722

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Although PM Erdogan and Lebanese PM Siniora
reportedly speak often and, according to remarks in the press
attributed to iniora, "have had a visible chemistry
together," it seems the GOT prefers to support "stability" in
Lebanon above all else. Erdogan met with most Lebanese
political leaders during his one-day visit there January 3
and came away more pessimistic about the prospects for
solving the ongoing political crisis. Despite Turkey's fears
of regional instability, however, the GOT seems unlikely to
step up to the plate and unilaterally assume a mediating
role. END SUMMARY


2. (C) MFA Middle East Department Head Sedat Onal provided to
us January 10 a synopsis of PM Erdogan's January 3 visit to
Lebanon. In addition to visiting Turkish troops in southern
Lebanon participating in UNIFIL, Erdogan spent the day in
Beirut speaking with Prime Minister Siniora, President
Lahoud, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the head of
Hizballah's parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad, and the leader
of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt.
Turkish press noted Erdogan also met with Saad Hariri during
a lunch hosted by Siniora. Erdogan did not meet with General
Aoun but Onal said this was a scheduling issue rather than a
snub.


3. (C) Addressing post-visit media reports that intimated
Siniora had asked Erdogan to take on a role as mediator in
Lebanon's political crisis, Onal made clear that Erdogan's
trip was not an effort at mediation, but rather a
continuation of a regional swing that had earlier taken him
to Tehran and Damascus. In all of Erdogan's meetings, per
Onal, the PM pressed his interlocutors to be conciliatory and
constructive and to prioritize the interests of the nation
rather than look to narrow self-interest. Erdogan
underscored the importance of "preserving the unique fabric
of Lebanon," and urged all to avoid maximalist positions as
well as to settle their differences through political
dialogue, not in the streets.


4. (C) According to Onal, PM Siniora expressed his
appreciation for GOT support, including Turkey's decision to
contribute to UNIFIL. Siniora also conveyed his continued
strong support for the eventual formation of the Special
Tribunal as well as for efforts by Arab League Secretary
General Amr Moussa. Others listened to Erdogan but held to
predictable views. Lahoud and Raad both claimed to support
the establishment of the Special Tribunal but complained
about aspects of the documents establishing it, saying they
were "too broad" and superseded Lebanon's judicial system by
too wide a margin. Onal said Jumblatt was very critical of
continued Syrian interference in Lebanon's affairs and asked
Turkey to press Damascus to back off. The read-out of the
meetings provided by the Turkish Embassy in Beirut
characterized Nabih Berri as being "not open to compromise."
Berri alluded to his own "secret" plan to resolve the
deadlock but did not share details with the Turks, saying
that the timing was not yet right to publicize it.


5. (C) With respect to what Siniora had asked of Erdogan,
Onal said the GOL had asked the Turks to continue what they
have been doing, i.e. press the Iranians and Syrians to stop
their efforts to destabilize Lebanon. In reply, Erdogan
indicated those efforts will continue. Publicly, however,
Erdogan made clear that Turkey is in no position to act as a
"lone mediator," but could step in "if asked by the countries
of the region." Onal made clear to us that the GOT strongly
supports Amr Moussa's mediation effort.


6. (C) COMMENT: The Turks are very anxious about instability
along their borders, fearing the disintegration of Iraq and
eventual military conflict between Iran and the West. The
possibility of implosion in Lebanon adds to their neurosis.
Onal indicated Erdogan's meetings presented a depressing view
of the schisms in Lebanese politics, and he left Beirut more
pessimistic about a breakthrough than he had hoped. Despite
what appear to be close personal ties between Erdogan and
Siniora, the GOT seems most interested in finding a political
solution in Lebanon with which all parties can live. In
light of the realities on the ground in Lebanon witnessed
firsthand by Erdogan, the GOT does not appear to see itself
as a lone mediator, nor does it see itself, at least for now,
as able to be any more successful than Amr Moussa has been.

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