TURKISH CONCERNS ON IRAQ, ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000004

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH CONCERNS ON IRAQ, ARMENIAN GENOCIDE
RESOLUTION AND SHARED VISION IMPLEMENTATION

REF: 06 ANKARA 6764

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Turkey will continue closely to cooperate
with the US on Iraq and hopes Washington will share its
evolving thinking prior to any public announcements, newly
promoted MFA U/S Apakan told Ambassador December 30. After
repeating remarks on Iraq made December 27 to the DCM
(reftel),Apakan downplayed the significance of PM Erdogan,s
public call for a timetable for US withdrawal, but argued
that more clearly stating an intention for foreign forces
ultimately to leave Iraq would undercut insurgents, support
among the population. Apakan urged a strong administration
effort against the Armenian genocide resolution. He noted
the slow progress in arranging consultations called for in
the Shared Vision document released by the Secretary and FM
Gul in July and suggested that we develop soon a schedule of
events. Ambassador described Embassy Baghdad,s efforts to
coalesce moderate leaders around more effective policies,
called on Turkey to open channels with the Iraqi Kurdish
leadership, and said there must be no surprises on northern
Iraq/the PKK. He anticipated a strong Administration effort
against any Armenian genocide resolution and called on Turkey
to take actions to improve its position on the issue.
Ambassador acknowledged that the Shared Vision effort still
needs work and noted upcoming high level consultations
planned or potentially in the works. End Summary.

Iraq
--------------

2. (C) Apakan described Turkey,s priorities looking ahead on
Iraq, using the same language reported reftel. He
particularly stressed Iraq,s territorial integrity and
unity, law and order/security, restoration of the right
balance among Iraq,s communities, continued efforts to draw
Sunni extremists into politics, and working more effectively
to counter PKK terrorism emanating from northern Iraq into
Turkey. Apakan emphasized Ankara,s interest in cooperating
closely with the US on all Iraq-related issues. Turkey hopes
that the US will share its ideas and evolving thinking before
announcements are made, including regarding any change in the
disposition of US forces on which there should be
consultations. MFA Iraq Coordinator Celikkol will visit
Washington in January for this purpose, and FM Gul hopes to
continue this if the Secretary can receive him in February.
Turkey will continue to pursue the next meeting of the
Neighbors of Iraq foreign ministers in Baghdad or Cairo,
whichever venue can be accomplished soonest. Participation
in such talks by UNSC Perm-5 representatives would help to
isolate Iran and reassure the Gulf and other states in the
area.


3. (C) Ambassador asked how we should understand PM
Erdogan,s call for a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign
forces, complaining that it was not helpful for us to be out
of sync on such a key matter. An obviously uncomfortable
Apakan suggested that what Erdogan meant was that the
conditions (vice a specific timetable with dates) for the
withdrawal of US and other foreign forces should be more
clearly talked about. This would undercut radicals who
currently garner support in a fight against foreign
occupation, and help draw outliers into the political
system. But Turkey does not want to see any precipitate
withdrawal that would lead to a power vacuum. Any changes in
Coalition forces should be incremental, and Ankara wants
there to be no surprises in this area.


4. (C) Ambassador expressed appreciation for Apakan,s review
of Turkey,s Iraq policy and strong intention to cooperate
closely with the US. As the President reviews different
ideas and options, Turkey,s support and cooperation would
continue to be helpful. Ambassador described efforts over
the last month in Baghdad to strengthen a moderate core of
leaders who could support and buttress more effective
decision making and action by PM Maliki,s government. While
inclusion remains an interest, the implication of this effort
is less emphasis on drawing into the system those who
continue to be opposed to it. We hope that Turkey will back
our and the moderates, efforts. Ambassador urged engagement
with Iraq,s Kurdish leaders -- the absence of which has
undermined Turkey,s interests in Iraq. He defended the

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Ralston initiative, stressed our commitment to working with
Turkey on the PKK, and cautioned against any surprises by
Turkey vis--vis the Turkey/northern Iraq border.

Armenian Genocide Resolution
--------------

5. (C) Apakan reviewed familiar Turkish concerns regarding a
possible congressional resolution on the fate of Armenians at
the end of World War I. He said the issue should not be a
platform for poisoning US-Turkish relations at a critical
time for our cooperation on Iraq and other regional
priorities. PM Erdogan had told President Bush in October
that passage of a resolution would mean problems for our
cooperation and appreciated the President,s response.
Ankara hopes there will be a real effort by the
Administration against such a resolution and hopes to
cooperate closely with the US on the matter.


6. (C) Ambassador responded that he anticipates no change in
the approach to the issue taken by the last several US
Administrations of both parties. Our opposition to a
genocide resolution will remain, but so will the President,s
acknowledgement that among the many tragedies of WWI, as many
as 1.5 million Armenian Ottoman citizens were driven to
forced exile and death. Ambassador looked forward to working
with the Turkish embassy in Washington and government in
Ankara on the matter, and he urged more effective GOT
outreach to key US constituencies and leaders who have been
helpful to Turkey in the past. Ankara should consider
actions it can take now to garner support, including with
respect to Armenia. Ambassador also observed that the
Executive Branch cannot ultimately tell the Legislative
Branch what to do. If, at the end of the day, a resolution
passes one or both houses of Congress, our job will be to
manage the consequences in ways that will enable us to
continue working together on critical issues
where we share common interests.

Shared Vision
--------------

7. (C) Apakan expressed disappointment that more had not been
done to energize US-Turkish dialogue as called for in the
Shared Vision paper released by the Secretary and FM Gul in
July. He did not want to assign blame for this and
acknowledged that Turkey could have done more, too. Looking
ahead, Apakan urged that a schedule be drawn up for
consultations in 2007 on the issues identified for
collaboration in the Vision paper, including on trade and
investment, exchanges, and key policy issues. Apakan also
noted FM Gul,s interest in meeting with the Secretary in
February.


8. (C) Ambassador said that he had forwarded Gul,s request
to see the Secretary in February; there would be no reply
until after the holidays. He said Apakan,s suggestion that
we develop a specific plan for bilateral consultations was
helpful and he would discuss it with Washington. He noted
that the first meeting of the Economic Policy Commission in
many years is now planned for early February. We hope to
reschedule NEA PDAS Jeffrey,s consultations in Ankara for
early in 2007 and also want to move ahead with USNATO
Ambassador Nuland,s visit, which had been postponed at
Turkey,s request in the run-up to Riga. Ambassador also
noted that there is discussion in Washington about possible
travel to the region by U/S Burns and/or EUR A/S Fried, and
he said we will advise Ankara as matters develop.

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MCELDOWNEY