SCENESETTER FOR CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000383 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2022 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN TURKEY REF: A. ISTANBUL 106 ¶B. 06 ANKARA 6733 ANKARA 00000383 001.4 OF 003 Classified by DCM Nancy McEldowney for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Introduction: The U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship is in a critical phase as the government grapples with continued PKK terrorist attacks from northern Iraq, fears that Iraq's instability will spread beyond its borders, the aftermath of the Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink murder, a potential U.S. congressional resolution on Armenian genocide, and how to find a balance between international and domestic priorities on Iran. All this comes against the backdrop of an important election year here in Turkey. Turks in and out of government predict that a genocide resolution will severely damage our bilateral relations and feed the flames of nationalist sentiment on the eve of elections. ¶2. (C) Secretary Rice and FM Gul agreed to the Strategic Vision document in July 2006, which provides for several tracks of structured dialogue, including expert-level talks, policy planning consultations, broad-based dialogue and high-level review. Assistant Secretary Boucher's June 2006 visit was one of the first in this framework. U/S Burns held consuation and integration into the international community, democratization, education and counter-narcotics. Turkey follows the EU lead on human rights issues and advocates -- quietly -- gradual transition to democracy by emphasizing economic development. Turkish officials, particularly the military, worry that radical Islam is a growing negative influence. MFA Under Secretary Apakan told U/S Burns in January that Turkey wants to strengthen NATO's engagement in Central Asia as well. ¶4. (SBU) Post-independence, Turkey was the first to provide substantial economic and development assistance to the region. Turkey-Central Asia trade, credits, assistance, and investment have all grown steadily. According to the GOT, more than 1000 Turkish firms operate in the region in the energy, telecom, textile, food, and tourist sectors, with investments of over $3.5 billion. No one Central Asian country makes Turkey's trading partner top twenty list, but the Turkic Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan) collectively constitute a growing $2.7 billion two-way trade and Turkish trade with the �00A;region far excego eta sa ras twice successfully led the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most recently from February to August 2005. This month Turkey took command of ISAF-Central in Kabul in a rotation with France and Italy. Last November, it opened its first Provincial Reconstruction Team in Wardak province. Following PM Erdogan's visit in November 2005, it increased its pledged assistance to $100 milte years, with money all 29-February 2. The course brought together Afghan and Turkish officials to enhance cross-border cooperation against key international drug production and trafficking networks and enhanced technical skills for units from both countries. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON ANKARA 00000383 002.4 OF 003 -------------- Turkmenistan -------------- ¶6. (C) The GOT shares the U.S. view that Niyazov's death presents an opening but is cautious about how to approach the transition. The Turks believe that urging rapid change too fast or too publicly risks playing into the hands of the Russians. Prime Minister Erdogan attended President Berdimuhammedov's inauguration last week and led a 200-person strong delegation to Niyazov's funeral in December (ref b). ¶7. (SBU) Energy-rich Turkmenistan has attracted Turkish investment. Turkey has called for revitalizing the Trans-Caspian-Pipeline (TCP) for gas from Turkmenistan and hopes that reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will in time result in its revival. The earlier TCP project failed in 2001, although Turkey and Turkmenistan still signed a fruitless take-or-pay gas import contract. Turkish Calik Holding has been an active investor in the textile, energy, and construction sectors in Turkmenistan. Its owner, Ahmet Calik, has close ties to many in the current Turkmen government (ref a). About 10 percent of Turkmenistan's GDP is generated by Turkish firms. Turkey exports machinery, iron, and steel to Turkmenistan and imptana is being done by Turkish firms. Turkey provides military equipment, education and training to personnel involving $6.8 million in assistance from 1998 to 2005 (the most recent figure). -------------- Kyrgyzstan -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Along with trade and cultural exchanges, Turkish relations with Kyrgystan are particularly active in the field of education. The two countries inaugurated the joint Turkish-Kyrgyz Manas University in 1997. Turkey recently increased its military assistance by signing an agreement in January for about $800,000 worth of equipment for the Kyrgyz National Guard and border outposts. -------------- Uzbekistan -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Turkey perceives that preventing and eliminating threats like extremism, terrorism, and drug smuggling that Uzbekistan faces are main topics in bilateral discussions. Turkey's relationship with Uzbekistan has historically and more recently been difficult. Most recently, Uzbekistan boycotted the November 2006 Turkic summit in Antalya, Turkey because of Turkish support for the UNGA resolution condemning Uzbekistan's human rights record. Turkey is Uzbekistan's primary trade partner, but the trade volume is of modest proportions. -------------- Tajikistan -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Turkey's relations with Tajikistan have developed more slowly because of internal conflict, lack of proximity, fewer energy resources, and a largely Farsi speaking population. Its trade relations are proportionally less ANKARA 00000383 003.4 OF 003 ¶12. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most recently from February to August 2005. This month Turkey took command of ISAF-Central in Kabul in a rotation with France and Italy. Last November, it opened its first Provincial Reconstruction Team in Wardak province. Following PM Erdogan's visit in November 2005, it increased its pledged assistance to $100 milt organiQics trQebruary 2. The course brought together Afghan and Turkish officials to enhance cross-border cooperation against key international drug production and trafficking networks and enhanced technical skills for units from both countries. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON