TURKEY/IRAQ: TAKING THE PULSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002960 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y -- ADDED CAPTION NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKEY/IRAQ: TAKING THE PULSE REF: STATE 165802 ANKARA 00002960 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador urged GOT Iraq Coordinator Celikkol to move forward with a GOT invitation to President Talabani to visit Ankara, noting such a step could help break the ice between the Turks and Iraqi Kurds and lead to eventual dialogue with Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) officials. He also asked that the GOT persuade its Turkmen friends in Kirkuk to re-join the political process, lest they be left out of the decision-making altogether. Celikkol, who has been tapped to be Turkey's next ambassador to Greece, passed us the text of an Iranian ten-point plan for Iraq, asking that we not divulge him as the source of the document. He discussed plans to engage the Kuwaitis soon on the next neighbors ministerial, as well as on Turkish efforts to foster economic development in SE Iraq. The GOT awaits tangible results from KRG efforts to constrain the movement of and logistical support to PKK terrorists in northern Iraq. While not yet offering positive reinforcement of those efforts, Celikkol pointed to negative actions the Turks have not taken vis-a-vis KRG interests as evidence that they understand KRG officials are trying. Turkey has a more positive view now of UN involvement in finding a solution to the status of Kirkuk issue. Prior to the end of his tenure, Celikkol hopes to meet again with Amb. Satterfield and asked that he consider stopping in Turkey during his next trip to the region. END SUMMARY PUSHING THE GOT ON DIALOGUE WITH IRAQI KURDS -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador told Celikkol December 12 that much of his attention in recent weeks has been focused on establishing the enhanced intelligence-sharing relationship agreed on during PM Erdogan's November 5 meeting with POTUS. He briefed Celikkol on the latest developments related to this effort, noting a possible visit by Turkish Deputy Chief of Defense General Saygun to Baghdad in early January to confer with General Petraeus. Characterizing as positive reports that an Iraqi military delegation may come to Ankara soon for consultations with Turkish counterparts, Ambassador noted we support increased dialogue between Turkey and Iraq. In that context, he urged that the Turks invite President Talabani for an official visit soon. A Talabani visit would provide positive reinforcement of steps the Iraqis, and Iraqi Kurds, are taking to counter the PKK presence in northern Iraq. Such a visit would also begin a dialogue between the GOT and Iraqi Kurds, and hopefully kindle a process that could eventually entail GOT contact with KRG officials. Ambassador added that we were disappointed to hear FM Babacan's remarks earlier in the week criticizing KRG efforts to date as falling short of Turkish expectations. ¶3. (C) Celikkol responded that President Gul has stated he intends to invite Talabani, it is just a matter of working out a mutually convenient time. Regarding KRG efforts to counter the PKK and FM Babacan's remarks, Celikkol noted the GOT accepts that KRG officials are taking some increased measures to make life more difficult for the PKK in Iraq. However, the GOT is waiting to see actual results that would demonstrate a clear political commitment by KRG authorities to ending the PKK presence in their territory. They are setting up new roadblocks to cut off logistical support and constrain PKK members' freedom of movement. Have goods been confiscated? Have any arrests been made through increased vigilance at airports in Erbil or Suleymaniye? Many questions remain regarding the nature of the KRG's commitment and, as of yet, the GOT has no real answers. The capture and arrest of a few senior PKK leaders would go far in demonstrating the political commitment the Turks seek on the part of the KRG, according to Celikkol. ANKARA 00002960 002.3 OF 003 ¶4. (C) Ambassador noted those questions remain unanswered, but reiterated the USG view that KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani is sincere in following through on the commitments he has made to counter the PKK presence in northern Iraq. We have seen real action from the KRG and the PKK is complaining about it. Will these efforts lead to a total cessation of goods reaching the PKK? Probably not. They have been adept at smuggling goods and people across national borders in the region for 30 years. Nonetheless, we have urged the KRG to take these steps because we believe doing so makes a significant political statement, even though the results may not be as effective as one might hope. KRG President Barzani has refrained from making provocative statements in recent months as well, further evidence that KRG officials hope to change the dynamic of their relationship with the GOT. ¶5. (C) Celikkol noted Massoud Barzani's December 11 remarks upon his return to Erbil had been positive and supportive of Iraqi unity. The lack of public positive reinforcement for KRG efforts from Turkey should not be misinterpreted. While the GOT would prefer to see stronger actions taken against the PKK in northern Iraq, the U.S. should consider the steps Turkey has not taken against KRG interests and officials. Turkey did not implement economic sanctions against the KRG, including the closure of Habur Gate, as proposed in the aftermath of the October 21 PKK attack. Turkey also has not prevented KRG officials from traveling to Turkey for personal reasons, including for medical treatment. The GOT only insists that they not come to Turkey in their official capacity. While quiet party-to-party talks have taken place between ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Iraqi Kurdish political party officials, there is no set plan for this dialogue to continue, though such talks could be quickly arranged. Celikkol also underscored the GOT view that the trendline of Turkish-Iraqi relations is up, describing as very positive a recent interview with PM Maliki in al Hayat. FUTURE STATUS OF KIRKUK -------------- ¶6. (C) The GOT is pleased that the referendum on the future status of Kirkuk called for under Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution has been postponed. Celikkol noted the positive nature of two Iraqi parliamentary debates on the issue over the last month and reiterated Turkey's view that real power-sharing among the three main communities in Kirkuk must be established. Ambassador pointed to the success of our efforts in urging the return of Arab politicians to the Kirkuk provincial assembly and expressed disappointment that the Turkmen community has not responded in the same positive way. The Turkmen are making the same mistake Arab Sunnis made in boycotting the 2005 national elections; the GOT should press its Turkmen brothers to re-join the political process. Celikkol said the Turkmen community fears its return to politics in Kirkuk will be misconstrued by the Kurds as Turkmen concurrence in the Kurdish effort to subsume Kirkuk into their region. Turkey continues to support finding a constitutional path to solving the internal boundary issue in Iraq. Celikkol's deputy, Murat Ozcelik, told us in a separate meeting that the GOT has also begun to look more favorably on UN involvement in the issue, although what form UN involvement may take and the level of Turkish support for it remain an open question. IRAN'S PLAN FOR IRAQ -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Celikkol passed us the text of a ten-point plan for Iraq proposed by the Iranians. He requested that we not divulge the fact that he had passed it to us, noting the Iranians had distributed it several days earlier to the core group of Iraq's neighbors. Reminding the Ambassador that the Iranians had attempted to broach discussion of this plan during the Expanded Neighbors Ministerial in Istanbul in ANKARA 00002960 003.2 OF 003 early November, Celikkol expects the Iranians will attempt to raise it again at the next Ministerial in Kuwait. PM Maliki's office is not pleased about the Iranians' insistence in pushing this plan forward, while GOT officials remain uncertain how seriously to take the initiative, according to Celikkol. (Copy of the text passed to EUR/SE, NEA/I, and Embassy Baghdad.) NEXT STEPS ON NEIGHBORS -------------- ¶8. (C) Celikkol informed Ambassador he plans to travel to Kuwait in early January to talk about Turkish-Iraqi cooperation on trade and economic development in Basra. He will also discuss next steps in the neighbors process, noting the GOT has heard nothing from the Iraqis in recent weeks regarding timing of meetings of the working groups. The Turks are prepared to host the next meeting of the energy working group whenever the GOI indicates it is ready to move ahead. Turkey received a message from the Iraqis earlier in the week inviting the chairman of the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee to visit Baghdad o/a January 15 for a meeting of counterparts from neighboring states. The Turks plan to participate, in principle. This follows-up on a commitment by the Iraqis made in the Istanbul Ministerial communique to host such a meeting. Celikkol wondered aloud when the Kuwait ministerial might be held; he had heard the USG was perhaps pushing for a date in February. Ambassador noted seeing discussion of a goal of wrapping up the next round of working group meetings by mid-March, perhaps indicating a ministerial in early spring. MOVING AHEAD IN BASRA -------------- ¶9. (C) The GOT is moving forward with its plan to open a consulate in Basra, following-up on its commitment made during PM Maliki's visit to Ankara in August. Celikkol hopes to have a formal plan of action agreed internally by early January, with a Consul General named thereafter to oversee the effort to establish a Turkish presence in Iraq's southeast. TURKEY'S IRAQ COORDINATOR...POST-CELIKKOL -------------- ¶10. (C) Ambassador conveyed the text of the draft UNSCR on extending the mandate for MNF-I (reftel) to Celikkol. He also congratulated Celikkol on his next assignment, based on press reports that Celikkol will be named Turkey's next ambassador to Greece. Celikkol said the press report was a bit premature. While the timing of his transfer is still uncertain, Celikkol believes the GOT Iraq coordinator position will continue after his departure and that his replacement will likely be someone with at least some Iraq expertise. We had previously heard from others at MFA that the Iraq desk might be subsumed within the MFA's Middle East Directorate, falling under the authority of Deputy Under Secretary Feridun Sinirlioglu. SIPDIS SATTERFIELD CONSULTATIONS -------------- ¶11. (C) Celikkol expressed interest in meeting one last time with Amb. Satterfield prior to the end of his tenure. He is uncertain he will be able to travel to Washington in the coming weeks and asked that Amb. Satterfield consider a stop in Turkey if he is in the region in the near future. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON