TURKEY: PRESIDENT GUL URGES PAKISTAN OPPOSITION TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002928

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV AF PK TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRESIDENT GUL URGES PAKISTAN OPPOSITION TO
JOIN THE POLITICAL PROCESS

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Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Turkish President Gul, during a
December 2-3 visit to Islamabad, urged Pakistan's opposition
leaders to put President Musharraf above the political fray
and compete amongst themselves in the upcoming, January 6
elections. Pointing to the long and bumpy road Turkish
politicians have followed, democracy, Gul told them, does not
come overnight; stability must come first. The Turks are
hopeful that Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N)
will participate in the election, but reported no progress
convincing Imran Khan or the Jamaat-e-Islami to do so. This
was the first time any Turkish leader has waded more than an
inch deep into Pakistani politics and openly urged another
country to benefit from Turkey's own hard-won experience.
The GOT breathed more easily when the political class in
"brotherly" Pakistan did not view Gul's message as an
affront. A successful Pakistani election will allow Turkey
to resume efforts to deepen the level of cooperation between
Pakistan and Afghanistan, by bringing the leaders to Turkey
for another summit and reinvigorate the Joint Working Group
that monitors implementation of their Ankara Declaration
commitments.


2. (C) Former NATO Afghanistan senior civilian
representative Hikmet Cetin remains the Turkish choice for
the Afghanistan "super envoy" coordinator position, but if
the U.S. is serious about Paddy Ashdown, and convinces
Karzai, Turkey will pull back Cetin's candidacy. END SUMMARY
AND COMMENT.

NOT THE USUAL VISIT: GUL URGES OPPOSITION LEADERS
TO JOIN THE POLITICAL PROCESS
-------------- --------------


3. (C) MFA Deputy Director General for South Asia Babur
Hizlan told us December 7 that President Gul's December 2-3
trip to Pakistan was highly unusual, both in preparation and
execution. Turkey's close relations with Pakistan allowed
for it; Pakistan would not have accepted it from another
country, nor would Turkey have sought it elsewhere. With
Pakistani stability key to regional stability, President Gul
hoped to play a constructive role, helping to normalize the
political situation there. Gul successfully reached out to
all opposition leaders, telling them democratization is good
and necessary, but it does not arrive overnight. Stability
should be the priority. Political parties should put
Musharraf above the political fray and compete against each
other.


4. (C) In addition to meeting with caretaker PM Soomro, Gul
met separately with Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan,
and other political leaders, including from the
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI),Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam),
and other, smaller ethno-religious parties. Gul's main
message to Pakistan's opposition leaders was clear: get on
board with elections, even if conditions seem less than
ideal. He did not focus on questions concerning the
judiciary or when the emergency would be rescinded. Bhutto
told Gul she wants to participate in the election and asked
for his help convincing Sharif to do the same. Sharif
remained circumspect. Imran Khan couldn't be convinced. The
JI will not participate either. In his opposition meetings,
Gul recounted the difficult path Turkish politicians have
faced over the decades consolidating democracy in Turkey.
Pakistan's opposition leaders needed to use the opportunities
presented to them. He cited PM Erdogan and former Turkish
President Demirel as politicians who, despite repeated
attempts to exclude them from government, always chose to
return to power through the electoral process. Demirel, for
example, despite being jailed during the 1980 military coup
here, returned to the political arena as soon as possible and
later became Turkey's president. Gul also cited the Iraqi
experience, highlighting the political isolation from which
Iraqi Sunnis have been trying to extricate themselves since
boycotting politics in Baghdad.


5. (C) Hizlan sounded relieved Pakistan's political leaders
did not accuse Gul of meddling. At the joint press
conference following his meeting with Musharraf, Gul
emphasized he did not wish to interfere in Pakistan's
domestic affairs. Musharraf, who welcomed Gul at the press
conference in Turkish, said he thought the opposition

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meetings would be positive and in his country's interest. He
said, "My brother Gul is going to speak for Pakistan because
his interest is in Pakistan, and not in any individual or
political party." Gul emphasized Turkey's solidarity with
Pakistan in its struggle against terrorism, stating,
"functioning democratic institutions will strengthen
Pakistan's hand in its fight against terrorism." Calling for
unity in Pakistan, he said, "governments and their people
should struggle on one front in order to eliminate this
curse."

GUL ADVISES MUSHARRAF TO BE PRESIDENTIAL
--------------


6. (C) Presidential and PM Foreign Policy Advisor Ahmet
Davutoglu told Ambassador December 7 that President Gul's
visit had been decided upon shortly after his election as
president in August. An early visit to Pakistan has been a
standard for Turkish leaders, along with Northern Cyprus and
Azerbaijan. President Musharraf's declaration of an
emergency, however, complicated the visit's timing. Ankara
waited for at least a symbolic softening of the emergency's
hardest edges, but wanted to go forward while Turkey could
still make an impact on normalizing Pakistani politics.
According to Davutoglu, Gul's message to Musharraf was to be
presidential, avoid taking sides among political parties and
forces, and separate himself from the day-to-day operations
of government. This should fall to a new prime minister
elected by the parties in parliament. Gul was up front about
his wish to meet with opposition figures, and Musharraf posed
no objections. Davutoglu noted the meeting with Gul was the
vehicle for Sharif's first visit to Islamabad since returning
from exile. What could have been a protest trip, he said,
went off smoothly, and even provided cover for contacts with
the government. Davutoglu indicated that Sharif and Bhutto
took Gul's message well. He believed that both would avoid a
boycott of the elections, even as matters remain tense and
difficult for them.

JUMP-STARTING PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN COOPERATION
-------------- -


7. (C) Subsequent to Pakistan's elections and formation of a
new government, the GOT plans to invite the leaders of
Pakistan and Afghanistan to Istanbul. The leaders last met
in Ankara in April 2007, where they adopted the Ankara
Declaration committing the two sides to a series of
confidence-building and cooperation measures, with Turkish
support. The summit should be immediately preceded by a
meeting of the Deputy FM-level Joint Working Group (JWG),
tasked to monitor implementation of the Ankara Declaration
commitments. The JWG last met in Ankara in July 2007.
Hizlan encouraged us to provide suggestions on how the GOT
can help further cooperation and dialogue between the
Governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. He noted that Union
of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) President
Hisarciklioglu accompanied President Gul and is eager to work
with the U.S. on projects to spur economic development in the
region, especially along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Hizlan added that TOBB Economics and Technology University is
considering establishing a university in Pakistan, perhaps in
partnership with Turkey's Middle East Technical University
(METU).

GOT WILL HOLD BACK ON HIKMET CETIN FOR AFGHANISTAN
COORDINATOR IF U.S. DETERMINED ON ASHDOWN
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Hizlan told us the GOT supports former NATO
Afghanistan senior civilian representative Hikmet Cetin for
the Afghanistan "super envoy" coordinator position. Turkey's
UN Ambassador Baki Ilken recently met with Ambassador
Khalilzad and told him that if the U.S. is determined to have
Paddy Ashdown assume the position, and Karzai is convinced,
then Turkey will hold Cetin back. Otherwise, the GOT will
put him forward as a candidate.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON