ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION: TURKS PREDICT DIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000286 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU AM US SUBJECT: ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION: TURKS PREDICT DIRE CONSEQUENCES REF: ANKARA 252 Classified By: POL/C Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Contacts from across the Turkish political spectrum are deeply alarmed at the prospect that a Congressional Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) is likely to pass for the first time this year. All predict a harsh reaction, especially from the public, in this already politically-charged election year. End summary. ¶2. (C) In discussions with a wide range of Turkish contacts, we have reiterated the Administration's position to oppose passage of a resolution. We have consistently called on them both to show leadership and to do their part to help defeat such a resolution. At the same time, we have urged them to take the steps necessary to protect and stand up for the US-Turkey bilateral relationship in the event the resolution passes. Our contacts have included MPs from all the major parties (AKP, CHP, DYP, MHP),as well as academics and members of the press. Noted below are reactions from a variety of our contacts. ¶3. (C) In a February 6 meeting with senior MPs who are planning to travel to Washington to work the Hill against an AGR, ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP Erol Aslan Cebeci told the Ambassador that he worried that the prevailing sentiment in Washington was that the resolution's time has come. In point of fact, Cebeci argued, the timing could not be worse, especially in this dual election year in Turkey (presidential election in May, general election by November). He predicted a harshly negative reaction not only from the political class, but from millions of ordinary Turks. The argument that this is "just a resolution" will have no effect, he asserted. ¶4. (C) Cebeci emphasized that the U.S. is different than the other 18 countries who have passed legislation/resolutions. It is not important if Argentina or Zimbabwe passes an AGR. But an American resolution, he stressed emotionally, would be engraved in the brains and hearts of 72 million Turks and would be hard to erase. ¶5. (C) Fellow AKP MP and Chairman of parliament's foreign affairs committee Mehmet Dulger noted that this was a dramatic period in Turkey-Armenia relations. The two communities have lived together for more than 900 years. Turkey has made its mistakes, but sincerely wants to open the Armenia border. He added that Turkey is turning a blind eye to 70,000 Armenians working here illegally; efforts toward normalizing relations would be scuttled by an AGR. ¶6. (C) Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) MP Zeynep Damla Gurel told us January 24 that it appears that the AGR is set to pass. This will, she stated, be a "disaster" for our relations. She acknowledged that Turks need to lobby Congress to make their case, and agreed that it would be most effective to lobby on the basis of U.S. national interest in maintaining good ties with Turkey, rather than engaging in a historical debate on the events of 1915. ¶7. (C) Gurel's CHP colleague Fikret Unlu told us February 6 that if the resolution passes, he would expect and urge parliament to react very strongly to the Armenian Genocide resolution -- a reaction that might well be "out of line with diplomatic courtesy." Fellow CHPer Muharrem Ince agreed that he would advise the strongest possible reaction. The non-binding nature of the AGR would make no difference; that distinction will be lost on the Turkish public because it is such an emotional issue. On moving forward on ties with Armenia, Unlu said he supports opening the border, but that he would not say so publicly. ¶8. (C) MPs from the True Path Party (DYP) affirmed on February 8 that, in the event of passage, the reaction in Turkey, especially from the public, would be very bad and would exacerbate already intense anti-American sentiments within Turkey. Parliament, at a minimum, would have to come out with a harsh statement. They noted that passage would add fuel to the ultranationalist fire ignited by Hrant Dink's funeral. The DYPers affirmed that they, as the party committed perhaps more than any other to maintaining a strong US-Turkish relationship, would work hard to minimize the resolution's impact and protect the US-Turkey alliance, but predicted it would be difficult. ¶9. (C) Amb (ret) Omer Lutem, the ASAM think tank's Armenian Studies Chair, and Amb (ret) Kaya Toperi of GTC Communication Consultancy worried about the inexperience and unpredictability of the AKP government in comparison with past governments that have faced the serious prospect that this resolution would pass. Both fear a knee-jerk AKP reaction that does not take the long-term ramifications into account. Interestingly, Toperi did not think U.S. access to Incirlik Air Base was at risk. He said that lack of action against the PKK places Incirlik operations in greater danger than an AGR. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON