TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL MAKES POTEMKIN SENSE, AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002834

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL MAKES POTEMKIN SENSE, AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY, ON KURDISH ISSUES

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b
,d)


1. (C) Summary. Deniz Baykal, Chairman of the Republican
People's Party (CHP),recently proposed surprising policy
approaches to Turkey's Kurdish problem, including starting to
deal with northern Iraqi authorities. Baykal, a chronic
contrarian, urged strategic thinking and outreach to Iraqi
Kurds, suggesting several specific tools to employ. Most
contacts welcomed Baykal's new, constructive approach, but
remained deeply skeptical of his sincerity. There may be no
"there" there, or his new approach may be a temporary fix to
shore up fraying support for his leadership prior to CHP's
March 2008 party congree, but for now his remarks present an
opening for a more comprehensive approach to dealing with
Kurds on both sides of the border. End Summary.

Meaningful Steps to Reaffirm Turkey's Strength
-------------- -


2. (U) Hurriyet's Sukru Kucuksahin broke the story in
mid-November, quoting Baykal as suggesting that rather than
fighting, Turkey should be friends with the northern Iraqis.
"One can no longer see the issue solely in terms of a
cross-border operation. One should not regard northern Iraq
and Syria as if they are the same. Here there is
international support, an autonomous government and a
population of people from the same ethnic group...We must
regard relations with northern Iraq from the aspect of
terrorism as well. We must make plans not for overnight but
for the next 10, 20, or 30 years," Baykal said. As outlined
by Kucuksahin, Baykal's proposal includes:

-- Broadcasting radio and television to the region in
Kurdish, Arabic, and Turkish (including different dialects),
-- Bringing 500-1000 Arab and Kurdish Iraqi youth to Turkey
for university study,
-- Completing the Ilica Dam on the Tigris River, and
-- Opening the Ortakoy border gate to increase mutual
economic interdependence.

The Reaction: Don't Hold Your Breath
--------------


3. (C) CHP officials are reportedly preparing a new report on
the Kurdish issue for the party's March 2008 convention.
None of our contacts believe, though, that CHP will seriously
try to push any of these measures. CHP Konya MP Atilla Kart
emphasized that CHP had advocated similar ideas in the past,
but even Kart, a Kurd, did not shrink from acknowledging that
no pragmatic steps are being planned to back up Baykal's
verbal change of tack.


4. (C) Justice and Development Party (AKP) whip Sadullah
Ergin says his party hopes Baykal's words represent a lasting
stance by CHP and not just a show for the spring convention.
AKP Diyarbakir MP Abdurrahman Kurt saw the remarks as
positive; the Kurdish issue can only be solved, he
emphasized, if we talk with Barzani and Talabani. The GOT is
talking with representatives of the Kurdish Regional
Government (KRG) but not the leaders. Pro-Kurdish Democratic
Society Party (DTP) Mus MP Sirri Sakik told us he was
surprised but pleased by the remarks. He says he knows
Baykal well and worked with him in the past; Sakik said he
had earlier told Baykal that CHP's policies were dividing the
country. Democrat Party (DP) pretender Mehmet Ali Bayar
cautioned not to look for Baykal to put substance into his
newfound reasonableness; vice chairman Onur Oymen, he
claimed, would come out as an attack dog after the March
convention and try to walk the policy back.


5. (C) Kurdish reaction has been even more skeptical.
Kurdish businessman and former minister Serafettin Elci found
little positive in Baykal's remarks, noting the statement is
vague and offers few details. Elci was dismissive of a
broadcasting proposal he says smacks of propaganda rather
than organic Kurdish broadcasting that would recognize
Kurdish identity and culture. Former MP and mayor of border
town Cizre Hasim Hasimi said his contacts welcome Baykal's

ANKARA 00002834 002 OF 002


remarks but can't take the CHP leader seriously because his
previous nationalist rants have left him with zero
credibility. Instead, they see Baykal as a mouthpiece for
others (read "military") and view his remarks through that
prism. People are waiting to see what comes next -- this, on
its own, isn't enough to get excited about.


6. (C) COMMENT. Jaws dropped when Deniz Baykal said
something sensible on the southeast -- an area that spurned
CHP in the July 2007 elections -- after years of
substance-free, opportunistic ranting. Baykal's proposals
are not new, reflecting party reports made in 1989 and 1999,
and the absence of details suggests his remarks may lack
sincerity. But they are a striking departure from the
nationalist, contrarian rhetoric that has deepened fissures
within CHP and the country at large, Given Baykal's previous
rhetoric and presumed closeness to the military, it is only
natural for people to assume he is their mouthpiece, though
the military shows little reluctance to speak for itself.
Recently, generals have publicly acknowledged what they
stated years ago: the fight against terrorism cannot be won
by military means alone. If Baykal is serious and puts some
meat on the bones of his proposals, his remarks would be an
encouraging sign that increasing sectors of Turkish
politicians -- including the Kemalist establishment -- are
gradually recognizing the need to engage Iraqi and Turkish
Kurds through politics, not just weapons. END COMMENT.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON