TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL MAKES POTEMKIN SENSE, AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002834 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKEY: CHP LEADER BAYKAL MAKES POTEMKIN SENSE, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, ON KURDISH ISSUES Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Deniz Baykal, Chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP),recently proposed surprising policy approaches to Turkey's Kurdish problem, including starting to deal with northern Iraqi authorities. Baykal, a chronic contrarian, urged strategic thinking and outreach to Iraqi Kurds, suggesting several specific tools to employ. Most contacts welcomed Baykal's new, constructive approach, but remained deeply skeptical of his sincerity. There may be no "there" there, or his new approach may be a temporary fix to shore up fraying support for his leadership prior to CHP's March 2008 party congree, but for now his remarks present an opening for a more comprehensive approach to dealing with Kurds on both sides of the border. End Summary. Meaningful Steps to Reaffirm Turkey's Strength -------------- - ¶2. (U) Hurriyet's Sukru Kucuksahin broke the story in mid-November, quoting Baykal as suggesting that rather than fighting, Turkey should be friends with the northern Iraqis. "One can no longer see the issue solely in terms of a cross-border operation. One should not regard northern Iraq and Syria as if they are the same. Here there is international support, an autonomous government and a population of people from the same ethnic group...We must regard relations with northern Iraq from the aspect of terrorism as well. We must make plans not for overnight but for the next 10, 20, or 30 years," Baykal said. As outlined by Kucuksahin, Baykal's proposal includes: -- Broadcasting radio and television to the region in Kurdish, Arabic, and Turkish (including different dialects), -- Bringing 500-1000 Arab and Kurdish Iraqi youth to Turkey for university study, -- Completing the Ilica Dam on the Tigris River, and -- Opening the Ortakoy border gate to increase mutual economic interdependence. The Reaction: Don't Hold Your Breath -------------- ¶3. (C) CHP officials are reportedly preparing a new report on the Kurdish issue for the party's March 2008 convention. None of our contacts believe, though, that CHP will seriously try to push any of these measures. CHP Konya MP Atilla Kart emphasized that CHP had advocated similar ideas in the past, but even Kart, a Kurd, did not shrink from acknowledging that no pragmatic steps are being planned to back up Baykal's verbal change of tack. ¶4. (C) Justice and Development Party (AKP) whip Sadullah Ergin says his party hopes Baykal's words represent a lasting stance by CHP and not just a show for the spring convention. AKP Diyarbakir MP Abdurrahman Kurt saw the remarks as positive; the Kurdish issue can only be solved, he emphasized, if we talk with Barzani and Talabani. The GOT is talking with representatives of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) but not the leaders. Pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) Mus MP Sirri Sakik told us he was surprised but pleased by the remarks. He says he knows Baykal well and worked with him in the past; Sakik said he had earlier told Baykal that CHP's policies were dividing the country. Democrat Party (DP) pretender Mehmet Ali Bayar cautioned not to look for Baykal to put substance into his newfound reasonableness; vice chairman Onur Oymen, he claimed, would come out as an attack dog after the March convention and try to walk the policy back. ¶5. (C) Kurdish reaction has been even more skeptical. Kurdish businessman and former minister Serafettin Elci found little positive in Baykal's remarks, noting the statement is vague and offers few details. Elci was dismissive of a broadcasting proposal he says smacks of propaganda rather than organic Kurdish broadcasting that would recognize Kurdish identity and culture. Former MP and mayor of border town Cizre Hasim Hasimi said his contacts welcome Baykal's ANKARA 00002834 002 OF 002 remarks but can't take the CHP leader seriously because his previous nationalist rants have left him with zero credibility. Instead, they see Baykal as a mouthpiece for others (read "military") and view his remarks through that prism. People are waiting to see what comes next -- this, on its own, isn't enough to get excited about. ¶6. (C) COMMENT. Jaws dropped when Deniz Baykal said something sensible on the southeast -- an area that spurned CHP in the July 2007 elections -- after years of substance-free, opportunistic ranting. Baykal's proposals are not new, reflecting party reports made in 1989 and 1999, and the absence of details suggests his remarks may lack sincerity. But they are a striking departure from the nationalist, contrarian rhetoric that has deepened fissures within CHP and the country at large, Given Baykal's previous rhetoric and presumed closeness to the military, it is only natural for people to assume he is their mouthpiece, though the military shows little reluctance to speak for itself. Recently, generals have publicly acknowledged what they stated years ago: the fight against terrorism cannot be won by military means alone. If Baykal is serious and puts some meat on the bones of his proposals, his remarks would be an encouraging sign that increasing sectors of Turkish politicians -- including the Kemalist establishment -- are gradually recognizing the need to engage Iraqi and Turkish Kurds through politics, not just weapons. END COMMENT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON