GOT DECIDES ON SANCTIONS, CONVEYS EXPECTATIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002697 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - REMOVED PARA 1 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV TU IZ US SUBJECT: GOT DECIDES ON SANCTIONS, CONVEYS EXPECTATIONS FOR WASHINGTON REF: A. ANKARA 2682 ¶B. ANKARA 2693 ¶C. ANKARA 2680 ¶D. ANKARA 2662 ¶E. ANKARA 2658 ANKARA 00002697 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On October 31, the Council of Ministers agreed upon an as yet undisclosed package of economic sanctions aimed at the PKK and those who help them in Northern Iraq. Civilian flights that use Turkish airspace to travel to and from Erbil appear to have been largely curtailed, though we have yet to determine if Civil Aviation has issued any official directives. Turkish expectations continue to grow for President Bush to provide concrete recommendations for joint measures to fight the PKK during his November 5 meeting with PM Erdogan. Meanwhile, preparations for the Istanbul Iraq Expanded Neighbors Ministerial continue. Military operations persist throughout southeastern Turkey, as do nationwide anti-terrorism rallies; attendance at soldiers, funerals is in the tens of thousands. We expect spontaneous demonstrations outside Mission facilities during the Secretary's November 2 visit. End Summary. CABINET AGREES ON ECONOMIC SANCTIONS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Council of Ministers agreed on an undisclosed (and as yet unimplemented) package of economic sanctions against Northern Iraq during an emergency session on October 31 (ref a). Declining to discuss any details of the decision, GOT Spokesman Cemil Cicek emphasized that the GOT has aimed all measures at the PKK and those providing it shelter and assistance, not at innocent Iraqis or Turkish civilians conducting trade through the Habur Gate. Cicek stated that Turkey has already taken separate economic measures which will &become apparent over time.8 ¶3. (C) It is unclear whether the GOT has suspended the use of Turkish airspace for civilian flights to Erbil, but it is clear that fewer planes are flying. Despite a statement by PM Erdogan to the contrary, Turkish media are reporting that the GOT has shut down air corridors to and from Northern Iraq. A source at the Directorate General for Civil Aviation Air Transportation Department told us that the airspace is still officially open. While plans to stop the flights exist, the GOT has yet to issue any official directives. Istanbul-based charter airline Tarhan Tower told us Turkish Civil Aviation has denied their requests to fly two of their three weekly flights to Erbil. Budget airline FlyAir has not provided service from Istanbul to Erbil for the last week. ANKARA 00002697 002.2 OF 003 RICE IN ANKARA; PM ERDOGAN TO WASHINGTON -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Media are raising ) and dampening ) expectations for both Secretary Rice,s November 2 visit to Ankara and PM Erdogan,s Oval Office meeting. The press look to the Secretary to set the scene for PM Erdogan,s trip to SIPDIS Washington, though they see her as coming with empty hands. The PM, who will travel with military officials to Washington, will want to hear an offer of concrete assistance from President Bush. Commentators are skeptical that this will happen; one paper cites an unnamed Washington official as saying the White House is in a difficult position. One commentator goes so far as to speculate that a poor result could lead to the cutting of ties between our two countries. ¶5. (SBU) Throughout this period, preparations for the Istanbul Iraq Expanded Ministers Conference have continued apace. MFA officials have made clear to us that Turkey,s intention is to run the conference on a track entirely separate from that of the ongoing tensions. FM Babacan, in a November 1 press conference, stressed that Turkey favors an Iraq whose territorial integrity is protected. He noted that unity and territorial integrity would both be reflected in the conference communiqu. MILITARY OPS CONTINUE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Intensive counter-terrorism operations continued throughout southeastern Turkey. Media continue to report that nearly 100,000 troops are massed on the border, complemented by tanks artillery, warplanes, and combat helicopters. On October 31, Turkish forces reportedly &rendered ineffective8 15 PKK terrorists in Sirnak province who were responsible for the deaths of three Turkish soldiers in the Cudi Mountains (near the border with Iraq) on October ¶29. ¶7. (U) There is no news on the eight Turkish soldiers abducted by the PKK on October 21. Families of the abducted soldiers have begun to voice their frustration with the lack of information. FUNERALS DRAW LARGE CROWDS; PROFESSIONALS JOIN DEMONSTRATIONS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Tens of thousands attended the funerals in Yozgat, Ordu and Kilis of the three Turkish soldiers killed in the Cudi Mountains; newspaper photos show seas of people and Turkish flags. Demonstrations against the PKK continue throughout the country. The Ataturkist Thought Association (a major organizer of the April/May &Republic Rallies8) will hold a demonstration against the Secretary's visit in downtown Ankara the afternoon of November 1. The Turkish Medical Doctors Association, Public Employees Union Federation, the Union of Chambers of Engineers and Architects, and other professional organizations and NGOS will hold a rally on November 3 in Ankara to support the democratic and peaceful resolution of the Kurdish issue. MISSION SECURITY -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Occasional, informal protests in front of the Mission facilities are expected to continue. We expect a martyrs group to demonstrate outside the Istanbul consulate at 1300 on November 1. Turkish National Police (TNP) continue to provide supplemental security support at all mission facilities. We have no specific information regarding additional demonstrations, but expect spontaneous demonstrations to continue throughout Secretary Rice,s visit and the Istanbul conference. ANKARA 00002697 003.2 OF 003 Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON