PM ERDOGAN ROLLS OUT WASHINGTON AGENDA, CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002682 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - PARA 1 CLASSIFICATION SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND NEA/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV TU IZ US SUBJECT: PM ERDOGAN ROLLS OUT WASHINGTON AGENDA, CABINET DISCUSSES ECONOMIC SANCTIONS REF: A. ANKARA 2680 ¶B. ANKARA 2670 ¶C. ANKARA 2662 ¶D. ANKARA 2658 ANKARA 00002682 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During his October 30 address to his Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group, PM Erdogan laid out his agenda for his November 5 meeting with President Bush. Erdogan identified three main messages: 1) the U.S. must take necessary steps against the PKK; 2) the U.S. must provide a roadmap outlining future steps to fight terrorism; and 3) Turkey is prepared to take unilateral action. The Turkish media have begun to draw correlations between the run-up to the 1974 military operation in Cyprus and the current environment. Erdogan, nevertheless, continues to advocate patience. The Cabinet will today discuss proposed economic sanctions against Iraq. Contrary to press reports, it appears that no abnormal slow-down of traffic has occurred at the Habur Gate border crossing into Iraq. Counter-PKK operations continue throughout SE Turkey, with intensified operations reported in Hakkari, Sirnak, and Tunceli provinces. Continued media reports that the release of the eight soldiers abducted by the PKK on October 21 is imminent remain unconfirmed; efforts to gain their release continue. Spontaneous demonstrations persist throughout the country. Tens of thousands are expected to participate in a November 3 anti-terrorism rally in Ankara. End Summary. HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR ERDOGAN/BUSH MEETING -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During PM Erdogan's October 30 address to his party group, PM Erdogan previewed three issues he plans to raise with President Bush on November 5: -- The U.S. must undertake the necessary steps to fight the PKK; the PKK issue would prove a "sincerity test" of U.S. intentions. -- The U.S. must provide a roadmap outlining additional steps to fight terrorism. Erdogan specifically cited freezing PKK international accounts and a providing a clear explanation regarding PKK possession of U.S.-made arms. -- Turkey is capable of solving its own problems. If other countries "fail to understand" Turkish concerns, Turkey is prepared to take unilateral action. ¶3. (C) The Prime Ministry Press Center announced that FM Babacan, Defense Minister Gonul, and several military officials will join Erdogan in Washington. The PM apparently personally asked D/CHOD Saygun to accompany him to the Oval Office. ¶4. (SBU) Erdogan continues to resist public pressure to provide a timeline for a cross border operation (CBO) into Iraq. At an October 30 reception, Erdogan told press that "the operation would be carried out when the time comes." The media have begun to draw correlations between the current environment and the atmosphere prior to Turkey's 1974 invasion of Cyprus. CABINET TO DISCUSS ECONOMIC MEASURES AGAINST IRAQ -------------- --- ¶5. (SBU) The Council of Ministers will discuss proposed economic sanctions against Iraq in a session the afternoon of October 31 (ref A). According to media reports, recommendations include intermittently cutting the electricity supply to northern Iraq and preventing the passage of construction materials and foodstuffs through the ANKARA 00002682 002.2 OF 002 Habur border crossing. Reports also cite the possibility of closing down Turkish airspace for flights headed to northern Iraq. Despite media rumors to the contrary, we have seen no evidence that Habur traffic has slowed. MILITARY OPS CONTINUE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Counter terrorism operations continued throughout southeastern Turkey. According to media reports, Turkish security forces have intensified their operations in Hakkari, Sirnak, and Tunceli provinces. Cobra helicopters reportedly attacked PKK positions in the mountains in Sirnak Province, near the Iraqi border. ¶7. (C) Behind-the-scenes efforts continue to gain the release of eight Turkish soldiers abducted by the PKK on October 21. Press reports that the hostages, release was imminent raised hopes but have not been confirmed. Defense Minister Gonul reportedly told the press, "The Turkish General Staff did not make an announcement. Wait for it." DEMONSTRATORS MARCH ON -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Demonstrations against the PKK continue throughout the country. According to media accounts, groups numbering roughly 5,000 rallied in Izmir and Erzincan. In Istanbul, 30 customs agents blocked traffic to the airport and chanted anti-PKK and anti-Barzani slogans for 15 minutes. Local veterans associations delivered petitions volunteering to serve in the military in Adana and Konya. Also in Adana, members of the Turkmen Association gathered for a press conference where they called for a boycott of American products. Chairman Ismail Demirduzen stated, "Each (American) product you buy returns to us as a bullet." The media expect tens of thousands to attend a peace, democracy, and brotherhood rally in Ankara on November 3. More than 40 NGOs, including labor federations, plan to participate. Women,s NGOs are organizing an all-women anti-terrorism rally in Sanliurfa, November 18. MISSION SECURITY -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Occasional, informal protests in front of the Mission facilities are expected to continue. Turkish National Police (TNP) continues to provide supplemental security support at all mission facilities. We have no specific information regarding additional demonstrations, but expect spontaneous demonstrations to continue through Secretary Rice,s visit. SIPDIS Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON