TURKEY: GOT FRUSTRATED BY YEREVAN'S SUPPORT FOR

S E C R E T ANKARA 002664

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2017
TAGS: PREL AM TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: GOT FRUSTRATED BY YEREVAN'S SUPPORT FOR
AGR

REF: ISTANBUL 929

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) MFA U/S Apakan told the Ambassador on October 18 that
GOT officials are deeply frustrated by what they describe as
contentment on the part of Armenian officials regarding the
progress of AGR in the U.S. House of Representatives. The
GOAM is "totally wrong" to believe that it can force Turkey
into making concessions on opening the border and normalizing
relations through the active pursuit of genocide recognition
in France, the United States, or other foreign parliaments.
MFA DG for Central Asian and Caucasus Affairs Uman said that,
because of the GOAM's attitude, the GOT is presently unable
to make an opening toward Armenia.


2. (S) Apakan advised the Ambassador that General
(Ret'd)Scowcroft and former Ambassador Holmes suggested to
him October 17 that the GOT prepare a non-paper documenting
Turkey's recent efforts to promote normalized relations with
Armenia. Apakan complained that, as recently as August,
Ankara expressed to Yerevan its willingness to put all issues
on the table, including the border. The Armenians said that
they would not be ready to talk until September, and then
never responded at all. Meeting with Armenian FM Oskanian on
October 2 in New York, FM Babacan made the same offer, and
proposed that GOAM Deputy FM Kirakossian and GOT MFA Deputy
U/S Cevikoz meet to discuss the Turkish proposal. Oskanian's
answer was that if two Ministers can't resolve an issue,
neither can two deputies. This demonstrated to the Turks the
priority of genocide recognition over normalized relations
with Turkey in Armenia's foreign policy.


3. (C) The Turks believe Yerevan has been instrumental in
advancing AGR through the Congress. Apakan said that Speaker
Pelosi assured Turkish Ambassador Sensoy that AGR was a
purely domestic matter. Yet Uman recounted that FM Oskanian
told FM Babacan that, if Turkey would give tangible
assurances that it would open the border and establish
diplomatic relations, "we will turn off the resolution."
Apakan emphasized that Turkey cannot accept blackmail. The
GOT also believes that Oskanian's September 27 letter to
Speaker Pelosi dismissing any seriousness on the part of
Turkey to normalize its relationship with Armenia was
instrumental in helping to advance the AGR measure through
the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Apakan further
complained that the GOAM has sought to derail Turkey's bid
for EU membership. The Turks are incredulous over Oskanian's
October 15 speech to the European Parliament, where he
claimed that Turkey's genocide denial constitutes a security
threat to Armenia. Apakan stressed that Armenia is not an
enemy, but efforts to create pre-conditions that obstruct
Turkey's EU accession antagonize Turkey deeply.


4. (C) The Ambassador urged that Turkey keep the USG
well-informed of Turkish efforts to pursue dialogue with
Armenia. He stressed GOAM distrust of Turkey and its
reluctance to go down a road that would put off the AGR, a
key Armenian and Diaspora foreign policy objective, only to
get nowhere toward normalization with Turkey. Yerevan, he
said, wants a transformed relationship with Turkey. While
the politics of this issue are certainly bad in Turkey, they
are hardly more favorable in Armenia, with a presidential
election upcoming. He appealed to U/S Apakan to take full
advantage of any window of opportunity that the AGR's delay
may provide and pledged continued U.S. support for these
efforts.


5. (C) COMMENT. The GOT is wrong to see a long arm of
Yerevan calling the shots on AGR, though that view seems to
be widely shared within government and parliament.
Nevertheless, the vocal support of the Armenian leadership
for genocide recognition in Washington and elsewhere deeply
antagonizes Turks, and could provoke Turkey into retaliating,
not only against the United States, but also against Armenia
and Armenian citizens residing in Turkey (reftel). It could
also make impossible any meaningful gesture toward Armenia,
even if the AGR fails to pass. END COMMENT.


Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON