TURKEY FINDS AZERBAIJAN PESSIMISTIC ON N-K;

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002631 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR FOR MATT BRYZA, MIKE CARPENTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PREL PBTS AJ AM GG TU ZJ SUBJECT: TURKEY FINDS AZERBAIJAN PESSIMISTIC ON N-K; GEORGIA UNWILLING ON ABKHAZIA REF: ANKARA 2596 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d AZERBAIJAN PESSIMISTIC ON N-K -------------- ¶1. (C) MFA Deputy U/S for Caucasus and Central Asia Unal Cevikoz held bilateral consultations last week with Azerbaijan Deputy FonMins Azimov and Khalafov. MFA Caucasus Acting Head of Section Yavuz Kul told us that Cevikoz found the GOAJ deeply pessimistic on the state of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) negotiations with Armenia. Azimov reported that Armenian President Kocharian had told Azerbaijan President Aliyev that it will have to fall to the next Armenian president to make concessions on N-K. But Azimov believes that Kocharian's likely successor, PM Sargsyan, an N-K native and war veteran, is likely a hard-liner. The GOAJ fears that Sargsyan will want to start negotiations from scratch, and worries about the impact that Kosovo independence might have on the Armenian position. While noting familiar complaints about Armenian demands, the GOT has also noticed a hardening in the GOAJ's negotiating position. Azimov told Cevikoz that the GOAJ wants the future of N-K determined by a popular vote, supported by both communities, to take place after the return of internally displaced persons -- a recipe for more deadlock. ¶2. (C) According to Kul, the Azerbaijani public is beginning to demand a military solution. This won't be easy for the GOAJ to defuse. The GOT believes that Baku might begin initiating limited, "controlled crisis" to again attract international attention to the N-K conflict. Kul said that the GOT has urged restraint. ¶3. (C) Kul also reported that the GOAJ is concerned by Russia-Georgia tensions, stemming from Georgia's NATO aspirations. Baku, he said, wants Georgia to be more sensitive to Russia to avoid tensions between the two countries from posing a major threat to the region. Kul observed that the GOAJ is also concerned about altering balances in the region. It does not want to be left out. While there is no change to Turkey's official support for Georgia's NATO aspirations, Kul conceded a Turkish preference for Georgia and Azerbaijan to accede together. Noting Russia's virulent opposition to Georgia joining NATO, Kul implied that the GOG might be wrong to believe that NATO membership best addresses Georgia's security concerns. GEORGIA NOT READY TO TAKE STEPS ON ABKHAZIA -------------- ¶4. (C) Kul confirmed that MFA had requested -- through Turkey-based Abkhaz community groups -- that Abkhaz "President" Bagapsh cancel his visit to Turkey, which had been scheduled to begin October 17 (reftel). While no "official" contact was planned, the GOT believed it would be an important opportunity to "explore attitudes" with the Abkhaz. Tbilisi, he said, was initially tolerant of Bagapsh's visit, but, one week before his scheduled arrival, got cold feet and implored the GOT to postpone. Kul emphasized that Turkey has never asked to play the role of facilitator with Abkhazia; Georgia had suggested this role to Turkey. But Georgia, he said, is not ready right now to take any steps to solve the Abkhaz problem -- it is entirely focused on attaining its NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON