TURKEY: EU HARMONIZATION PROCESS OVERSHADOWED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002627 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: EU HARMONIZATION PROCESS OVERSHADOWED BY TERROR ATTACKS REF: A. ANKARA 2604 ¶B. ANKARA 2517 ¶C. ANKARA 2468 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for reasons 1.4(b) ,(d) 1.(C) Summary: Turkey expects a critical but balanced progress report from the EU Commission on November 6, despite set backs in the GOT's accession-related reform process resulting from recent PKK terror attacks (ref A) and the House Foreign Affairs Committee's (HFAC's) October 10 approval of the Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) (ref B). A contact at Turkey's EU Secretariat said the flurry of high-profile events has prevented the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) from re-passing the Foundations Law and amending Penal Code Article 301, two particularly contentious issues. The GOT plans to move ahead with an ambitious plan of legal reforms in 2008, according to our contact, depending in part on how the PKK terror issue plays out. A tough EU progress report could provide the necessary spark to jump-start stalled political reforms. End summary. -------------- Events Overshadow EU-Related Reforms -------------- 2.(C) Turkey's EU Secretariat Political Chief Cem Kahyaoglu told us recently that PKK terrorist attacks and HFAC's October 10 approval of the AGR have distracted the GOT from EU accession reforms. Parliament could re-pass a new Foundations Law "in 20 minutes" but had no time on its agenda, according to Kahyaoglu. On a more positive note, he said the elevation of Turkey's former EU coordinator Ali Babacan to foreign minister, and a bureaucratic restructuring that placed the EU Secretariat under MFA instead of the prime ministry, had resulted in smoother coordination. Following PM Erdogan's October 19 comment that changing "Turkishness" to "Turkish nation" would help solve the 301 problem, FM Babacan would now push for the law's amendment, Kahyaoglu said. Just as the constitutional reform project dominated AKP's agenda after the July 22 parliamentary elections, the struggle against PKK terror could overshadow all other events in the coming months, he cautioned. -------------- -------------- EU Commission Report Expected to be Critical, Balanced -------------- -------------- 3.(C) Kahyaoglu said the EU Commission signaled in recent meetings that its November 6 progress report would praise Turkey for carrying out free and fair elections during a turbulent year of rising nationalistic public sentiment. The Secretariat expects the report to welcome Turkey's more SIPDIS representative parliament that now includes seven parties (versus two in the previous government),including the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). The Secretariat also expects the report to highlight lack of progress on Article 301, the Foundations Law, and the Ombudsman Law, and criticize the numerous court cases against DTP members. Though the report would not take up the Armenian genocide controversy because it is not part of the Copenhagen criteria, Kahyaoglu believes the issue will impede Turkey's future progress if it is not resolved. 4.(C) Representatives from the EU Commission's Turkey office confirmed the progress report would acknowledge the successful elections and some technical progress, and would detail lack of progress on long-standing issues, such as Article 301 and the Foundations Law. It would also describe several other human rights concerns, including an increase in unrestrained and arbitrary use of force by law enforcement; military statements that attempted to influence the outcome of elections; the April raid of Nokta magazine by an anti-terrorism unit following publication of an article exploring ties between the military and secret criminal groups; and an environment of intolerance that led to the murder of three Christians in Malatya and the murder of journalist Hrant Dink. -------------- ANKARA 00002627 002 OF 002 Turkey's Ambitious 2008 Harmonization Plans -------------- 5.(C) Kahyaoglu described the GOT's ambitious plans to enact 188 primary laws and approximately 400 secondary laws by the end of 2008. The effort, spearheaded by FM Babacan, would put Turkey in technical compliance with all EU requirements, leaving only the admittedly difficult task of fully implementing the laws. The Secretariat plans to work with relevant government institutions to provide quarterly reports to Babacan tracking progress. 6.(C) Kahyaoglu cautioned that the intensified struggles against PKK terror could slow GOT plans to move ahead full steam. In the longer term, the EU's attitude toward enlargement will play a critical role in determining Turkey's chances at accession. Referring to French President Sarkozy's idea of a "Mediterranean Union", Kahyaoglu stressed that "Turkey believes it has embarked on a path toward full membership in the EU, not a second-tier grouping." 7.(C) Comment: Political reforms associated with EU harmonization will continue to take a back seat to GOT efforts to respond to recent PKK attacks. The AGR may also distract Turkey from carrying out an aggressive reform agenda in 2008. AKP, under continued EU pressure, is likely to push through the Foundations law in early 2008. However, AKP's conflicting statements regarding Article 301 (ref C) indicate the government may use these distractions to put off amending the controversial provision. A tough November progress report could be the catalyst needed to re-energize the effort to amend Article 301 and jump-start the overall reform process. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON