SCENESETTER FOR SECDEF GATES MEETING WITH TURKISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002597

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS PTER IZ TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECDEF GATES MEETING WITH TURKISH
DEFMIN GONUL AT SEDM, OCTOBER 21

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: USD/P Edelman's October 13 visit here
reinforced to the Turks the Administration's intensive
efforts to defeat the Armenian genocide resolution (HR 106)
and our wish that the bill not derail relations. Senior
officials tell us they are deeply frustrated and will be
forced to respond if the resolution passes. The Turkish
parliament's October 17 authorization of a cross border
operation against PKK terrorists in northern Iraq has caught
the attention of Iraqi and Kurdish authorities. While GOT
officials say a military operation is not imminent, another
PKK attack could spark military action. You may wish to
underscore with Gonul the Administration's continuing efforts
against HR 106 and the need to avoid serious damage to our
important security relationship and re-emphasize our view
that a cross border operation will not serve stability in
Iraq or the region. Gonul may dangle the prospect of
improved chances for defense industrial cooperation if we can
offer Turkey ITAR exceptions. Meanwhile, the Turks are
seeking high-level assurances from us that a cargo of
US-purchased BMP fighting vehicles being shipped to Iraq for
eventual transfer to Iraqi Security Forces will not be
diverted to the PKK. End summary.

Impact of Armenian Resolution
--------------


2. (C) Prime Minister Erdogan made clear that if the
resolution passes the full House, the GOT will have no choice
politically but to respond. The comment made by one Member
of Congress that Turks will get angry for a few days and then
get over it has drawn ire here. Based in part on the French
experience with Armenia legislation, we believe that if the
resolution passes, the blowback will be measured over a
period of years, not days. The GOT is watching the Hill very
closely and trying to keep what options it has open.



3. (C) CHOD GEN Yasar Buyukanit warned publicly October 14
that bilateral security relations with the US will never be
the same if the resolution passes. Days before the Committee
vote, TGS abruptly canceled an 06-level meeting in Ankara to
discuss the full range of bilateral mil-mil issues. Senior
military officials canceled planned visits to EUCOM and the
US. If the resolution passes, we expect a robust TGS
reaction that could have an impact on our ability to support
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan until work-arounds are
fully operational. You will want to highlight the
Administration's on-going efforts to turn the tide on the
Hill and stress our fervent wish to avoid long-term harm to
US-Turkish relations if the bill passes.
Potential for Cross-Border Operation Against PKK
-------------- ---


4. (C) The overwhelming parliamentary majority which
authorized the government to conduct military operations
against the PKK in northern Iraq reflects Turkish frustration
and feelings of impotence following the deaths of 16 soldiers
at the hands of the PKK in early October. The motion is
clearly intended to increase pressure on us, the Iraqi
government and Kurdish authorities to take action against the
PKK, while allowing the Erdogan government to show that it is
responding to public outrage. Recent statements by Iraqi
government and Kurdish authorities indicate that the CBO
authorization has caught their attention. Upcoming
high-level Iraq Neighbors meetings, including the November
2-3 Iraq Neighbors Ministerial in Istanbul, offer Turkish and
Iraqi officials more opportunities to work together on the
PKK issue.


5. (C) With parliamentary approval in hand, another PKK
attack will met by the GOT with a strike across the border.
The GOT can launch limited incursions with no advance
warning. You may wish to reiterate that such action would
not eliminate the PKK threat and would be detrimental to Iraq
and regional stability.

Interest in Defense Cooperation
--------------


6. (C) Our Turkish Foreign Military Sales program consists of
over 300 open cases with a total value of approximately $8.2
billion. Current major US defense programs include the
acquisition of new AIRCRAFT and the upgrade of the world's
largest F-16 fleet outside the US, and the pending transfer
of five US Navy vessels. MOD interest remains high in
potential programs which provide capabilities perceived as
lacking. Our ability to compete in commercial sales of
military equipment, however, continues to be hampered by
onerous terms and conditions that our firms cannot meet. Our
firms were unable to even bid on the tender for modern attack
helicopters. In recent meetings, however, Turkish
procurement officials have dangled the prospect of "a new
level" of partnership with us in key areas of defense
industrial cooperation if we are willing to negotiate an ITAR
Treaty similar to what we have with the Australians, or at
least give Turkey key ITAR exceptions. Gonul may press you
on ITAR relief for Turkey.

High Level Interest in Iraq-Bound Military Cargo
-------------- ---


7. (C) In the context of enduring Turkish concerns over the
leakage into Turkey of US-procured weapons from Iraq,
addressed by DOD GC Haynes and IG Kicklighter during their
recent visits here, senior Turkish civilian and military
officials have voiced worries to us about a cargo of
refurbished BMP armored personnel carriers with AT-4
anti-tank missile mounts being shipped to Iraq for eventual
transfer to Iraqi Security Forces. The Turks have told us
they will interfere with the vessel, the MV Oniks currently
waiting in Limassol, if they do not receive high-level
assurances that we will provide adequate end-use monitoring.
We are working to provide such assurances so that the ship
may proceed to Iraq. You can assure Gonul that we are
committed to putting in place safeguards that will prevent
leakage to terrorists and criminal groups of weapons provided
to Iraq.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON