TURKEY: ABKHAZ "PRESIDENT" CANCELS VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002596 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR FOR MATT BRYZA, MIKE CARPENTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017 TAGS: PREL GG TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ABKHAZ "PRESIDENT" CANCELS VISIT REF: ANKARA 1505 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) We met on October 16 with Georgian DCM Koplatadze, who complained about the planned visit to Turkey of Abkhaz "President" Bagapsh, calling it unacceptable -- unofficial or not. He said Georgia expected the GOT to intervene to ensure that it is canceled. (The visit was, in fact, canceled.) The GOG, he said, is not sympathetic to the argument that a visit by Bagapsh is purely private and had reason to believe that official contacts might have been planned. Koplatadze is frustrated that the GOT nearly allowed a crisis to erupt in its bilateral relations with Georgia. The Circassian diaspora in Turkey, he argued, does not have real political clout. Georgia would like Turkey to be a facilitator in resolving Georgia's Abkhaz problem, but Tbilisi needs to give Ankara the okay first. As an example of a possible confidence-building role for Turkey, Koplatadze noted that Georgia had proposed allowing direct ferry service from the Turkish city of Trabzon to Sukhumi, with joint Turkish-Georgian customs administration. The GOT had, however, rejected this idea. ¶2. (C) Koplatadze suggested that a Turkey-Georgia crisis would not be a good thing for Turkey at a time when its relations with neighboring Armenia could get even worse. Georgia also has much to lose. The GOG, he said, is deeply concerned by the trajectory of U.S.-Turkish relations, and its potential impact on Georgia. The Georgians view strong U.S.-Turkish relations as a foundation for strong Georgian-Turkish relations. Successful Turkish advocacy for Georgia's integration with NATO and other European and transatlantic institutions requires active Turkish participation in those same organizations. Not surprisingly, Koplatadze also worries that weakened U.S.-Turkish relations could lead Turkey to seek stronger ties with Russia, despite the Russian Duma's own Armenian genocide recognition and Moscow's close ties to Yerevan. ¶3. (C) For its part, the GOT has always denied any "official" contact with Sukhumi, stressing its unmitigated support for Georgia's territorial integrity. Yet the GOT remains under constant pressure to reach out to Abkhaz de-facto authorities by a politically active Turkish Circassian community frustrated by its government's pro-Georgian policies. The GOT's request that "President" Bagapsh cancel this "unofficial" visit -- a second time -- has further soured the community. Cihan Candemir, president of the Federation of Circassian Associations in Turkey, told us on October 17 that Turkey's failure to engage in Abkhazia -- including lifting the restriction on direct travel to the region -- undermines Turkish interests, and creates a bad precedent for the GOT in Cyprus. As a result, Russia, he said, is forced to play the role of guarantor in Abkhazia, and he lamented the Russification of Abkhazia. He further bemoaned what he termed Georgian threats and the complete lack of confidence between the two sides. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON