TURKEY: PUBLIC CONFUSED ABOUT OCTOBER 21 REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002575 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PUBLIC CONFUSED ABOUT OCTOBER 21 REFERENDUM REF: A. ANKARA 2470 ¶B. ANKARA 2324 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. Three days before Turks vote October 21 on a package of constitutional amendments that would shift Turkey to direct presidential elections, the referendum process is in disarray. The package, which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) pushed through parliament last June, has become AKP's albatross. AKP dithered over whether to cancel the referendum following Gul's election in August and has failed to launch an effective education campaign, leaving voters confused and uninformed. On October 17, the Supreme Election Board (SEB) narrowly turned down a proposal to postpone the vote. Parliament approved October 16 AKP's last-minute measure to delete a reference in the package to the "11th president" in order to eliminate questions about Gul's status, following his election by parliament as the 11th president, however the legal complications continue. High profile AKP efforts aimed at a comprehensive constitutional overhaul have overshadowed the earlier package, turning it into a messy political footnote. What started as an AKP tactic to showcase their democratic credentials and get Gul elected has snowballed into an AKP fumble. As a result, while the referendum is likely to pass, it could further cloud the already controversial debate on broader constitutional reform. End Summary and comment. Confusion Reigns -------------- ¶2. (C) Three days out from the October 21 referendum, the public is befuddled, and no wonder. Since AKP pushed through the legislation during high-stakes election maneuvering this June, the constitutional amendment package has become a stumbling block that AKP has ignored at its peril. The referendum -- providing for direct popular presidential elections, reducing parliament's term from 5 years to 4 and the president's term from 7 years to 5, and clarifying quorum requirements -- has been eclipsed by heated debate over AKP's proposed wholesale revision of Turkey's constitution. The overlap has led to confusion, made worse by a weak effort to educate the public. While in principle, parties across the spectrum support the change to a popularly elected president, the main opposition parties are seizing on AKP's bungling and threatening legal challenges. ¶3. (U) On October 16, parliament passed eleventh-hour changes to the amendment package aimed at eliminating language stipulating Turkey's "11th president" would be directly elected. Once Gul was elected the 11th president by parliament in August, opposition and legal scholars questioned his status if the referendum were to be approved as originally worded. ¶4. (U) AKP's fix generated new controversy because it changed the referendum language a month after voting had begun at border polling stations. Republican People's Party (CHP) leaders originally signaled support for removing the problematic language, but reneged as legal arguments gained traction. Vice Chairman Mustaf Ozyurek charged that changing the text of the amendment package with voting already underway at border gates was wrong and harmful. He proposed cancelling the referendum, noting direct presidential elections can be adopted as part of the forthcoming, broader constitutional revision. Ozyurek urged voters not to go to the ballot box, or of they do, to vote no. Democratic Left Party (DSP) also voted against AKP's proposed amendment, though the party in principle supports popular presidential elections. ¶5. (SBU) Nationalist Action Party (MHP) also retracted support for AKP's belated fix. While MHP voted with AKP to delete the reference to the 11th president, party leaders complained that the amendment package was hastily prepared and passed. Deputy Group Chairman Mehmet Sandir said MHP views the referendum as meaningless and is concerned about the uncertainties it creates. MHP supports popular election of the president, but prefers the change be considered after ANKARA 00002575 002 OF 002 full public debate. The party is now urging the public not to participate in the referendum or to vote no. Democratic Society Party (DTP) MPs voted with the government. Mus deputy Sirri Sakik said DTP is asking their supporters to vote yes on the referendum. No Postponement -------------- ¶6. (C) Following parliament's approval of the amendment, the SEB met October 17 to consider postponing the referendum to give more time to educate the public and to allow all voters, including at border gates, to vote on the new language. While SEB President Aydin acknowledged that there will be two texts -- the original and the amended -- and that votes have already been cast on one, the SEB decided to proceed with the referendum on October 21, as scheduled. Legal scholars and opposition members have warned that the referendum results risk being challenged in the Constitutional Court and then the European Court of Human Rights. ¶7. (C) AKP MP Metin Yilmaz admitted the party couldn't launch an effective education campaign because the legal problems had confused them too. He blamed CHP for distracting voters by raising questions about Gul's status if the referendum passes and blocking AKP's attempts to have the referendum coincide with the July 22 general elections. Yilmaz acknowledged the matter has become a "real scandal" and created serious legal problems, but added that Turks want direct presidential elections and are thus unlikely to complain about the time and money wasted on the bungled referendum process. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON