TURKISH PARLIAMENT TO CONSIDER MOTION AUTHORIZING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002549 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS TU IZ SUBJECT: TURKISH PARLIAMENT TO CONSIDER MOTION AUTHORIZING CROSS-BORDER OPERATION AGAINST PKK REF: A. ANKARA 2546 ¶B. ANKARA 2538 ¶C. ADANA 0120 ¶D. ANKARA 2503 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Under intense public pressure following an up-tick in terrorist killings, Turkey's parliament is scheduled to vote October 17 on a GOT proposal to authorize a cross-border operation (CBO) aimed at eliminating terrorist PKK camps in northern Iraq (reftels). The motion, submitted by the government late October 15, requests broad parliamentary authorization for a CBO any time in the next year. Parliament's approval is required before the GOT can order Turkish troops be deployed abroad; virtually all MPs are expected to approve the measure, except the 20 pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) deputies. This motion is part of the package of measures that emerged from the GOT's October 9 counter-terrorism council meeting. End summary. ¶2. (U) Following a six-hour cabinet meeting on October 15, the Council of Ministers forwarded to parliament a motion requesting authorization for one year to send the Turkish military into northern Iraq and "adjacent regions" harboring PKK camps in order to eliminate the terrorist threat and attacks against Turkey. The measure emphasizes Turkey's respect for Iraq's territorial integrity, unity and stability, and underlines the extensive diplomatic initiatives pursued, unsuccessfully, to halt PKK activities in northern Iraq. No specific timetable for a CBO is mentioned, leaving operational details to the government and Turkish General Staff (TGS). ¶3. (U) Deputy PM and spokesman Cemil Cicek told the press that parliamentary authorization does not mean a CBO is imminent; the government wants to avoid a CBO and urged the US and Iraq to take action against the PKK. He stressed that Turkey's only target is eradicating the PKK terrorist threat, adding that any operation would not be aimed at occupying Iraq. Citing the international community's failure to help combat the PKK, Cicek noted that no terrorists have been extradited to Turkey. President Gul and PM Erdogan reportedly will discuss the measure with Iraqi VP Tariq al-Hashemi during his October 16 Ankara visit. ¶4. (U) Parliament will vote on the motion October 17. PM Erdogan announced October 16 that the session, initially scheduled to be closed, would be open, putting pressure on AKP deputies representing Turkey's southeast to toe the party line. A simple majority is required, however an overwhelming number of MPs are expected to approve the measure, which enjoys broad popular support, particularly among the nationalist opposition. Attention has focused on the 20 pro-Kurdish DTP deputies, who are expected to oppose the motion. DTP MPs reportedly will finalize their position at an October 16 party meeting; earlier, a DTP deputy announced the party would vote against the measure. DTP Diyarbakir deputies Hasip Kaplan and Akin Birdal stressed that peaceful dialogue not war is the solution. ¶5. (U) TGS Deputy Chief Ergin Saygun, approached by the press at an October 15 national day reception, acknowledged Turkish forces had shelled targets in northern Iraq in response to rockets launched into Turkey. He reportedly refuted suggestions that a CBO would need to occur before winter snows, noting that weather would be only one of several factors considered. According to the motion, the government will determine the timing and scale of any operation in written instructions to the TGS. Saygun told the press that no such instruction has been received as yet. ¶6. (C) Comment. PM Erdogan has resisted the public clamor for military action against the PKK for months, emphasizing diplomacy and dialogue as the best means to permanently resolve Turkey's terrorist problem. Two weeks of intensified PKK attacks have created a rising sense of urgency. The GOT's October 9 counter-terrorism board meeting identified a CBO as one of a number of measures that should be considered. ANKARA 00002549 002 OF 002 The board also recognized the up-tick in violence as a PKK strategy to drag Turkey into the Iraq conflict and further polarize Turkish society. Erdogan has acknowledged that previous CBOs have failed to crush the PKK and is well aware of the risks, including to our bilateral relations. His rhetoric has been strong but his actions, so far, deliberate in an effort to placate inflamed public opinion while keeping the GOT's options open. AKP's motion to authorize a CBO is a steam-releasing show of action and strength, as well as a constitutional requirement. With overwhelming parliamentary approval expected, it will be up to Erdogan and the military to control the how, when and where of Turkey's response to further PKK violence. End Comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON