TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PACKAGE VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 002324 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PACKAGE VOTE BEGINS THIS WEEK Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: The voting process for the October 21 referendum on the seven-article constitutional amendment package (the "Package") -- which foresees direct election of the President -- started September 11 at the border gates. One article is sowing confusion because it refers to the 11th President, who has already been elected by parliament. While it appears the referendum will go forward, that issue will need to be resolved. Two options are that (1) parliament pass an additional amendment, annulling the problematic article; or (2) the article will be stillborn, since the 11th President has already been elected. For reference, the referendum calendar and the text of the constitutional amendment package are included below at paras 7 and 8. End Summary and comment. Details of the Voting Process -------------- ¶2. (U) Voting on the referendum began September 11 at border gates, including international airports. The process will culminate on October 21, referendum day, at 17:00 hrs. It is widely expected to pass; turnout will likely not be nearly as high as it was for the July 22 general election. ¶3. (U) Dual citizens who can show a Turkish passport or Turkish citizens who have been living abroad for more than six months and would enter or exit country on same day may vote at specified customs gates. Only a passport will be required to vote. Supreme Election Board (SEB) President Muammer Aydin said that the referendum will cost YTL 103 million (approximately USD 80.3 million). Potential Disputes May Complicate the Process -------------- ¶4. (U) Some commentators, including former Court of Appeals Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu, argue that Article 6 of the Package is problematic from a legal point of view because it refers to election of 11th President. Parliament has already elected the 11th President. ¶5. (C) Parliament's Laws and Regulations Department Deputy Director Mr. Seref Iba told us there are (at least) two alternate approaches. One is that another constitutional amendment could annul the disputed article. He believes this could even be accomplished legally during the referendum process. He thinks that making this amendment even after beginning of the referendum voting process would not violate the law since it will be done through a legal arrangement that is at an equal level. He however is not sure if and when this amendment will be made because there are rumors that when parliament starts on October 1, they will issue a decision to take another break. The second approach would be to do nothing, since the article in question would immediately be inapplicable. Governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) Deputy Group Chairman Sadullah Ergin echoed Iba's second option, saying that the AKP parliamentary group has no plans to address the controversial article because the provision is "stillborn": as the 11th President has already been elected, this provision cannot be applied. 6.(C) With regard to the term of office of the 11th President, Iba thought it would be seven years. In his view, the Package's revised five-year term should be implemented for the 12th President, who will be elected by the people if the referendum succeeds. Ergin agreed, saying that the 11th President has acquired right to serve for seven years and that passage of the referendum would not reduce his term. The 12th President will be elected by the people and serve for five years. However, Ergin added that AKP's drafters of a new constitution foresee inserting a provision stating that the 11th President shall serve for five years, which would effectively reduce Gul's term in office. Referendum Calendar -------------- ¶7. (U) The Supreme Election Board (SEB) set the following ANKARA 00002324 002 OF 004 calendar for the October 21 referendum: --Tuesday 11 September: Voting begins at the border gates. --Friday 28 September: Last day for representatives of parties (with a parliamentary group) to notify the SEB that they will participate in the schedule lottery for party radio and TV broadcasts. --Sunday 30 September: Printing of ballots will be completed and their distribution will begin. --Tuesday 9 October: The schedule for any presidential speech will be determined. The schedule lottery for the political party broadcasts will take place. --Sunday 14 October: Broadcasting bans begin (unrestricted propaganda within lottery-determined schedule limitations on radio and TV). --Saturday 20 October: The propaganda period ends at 1800 local. --Sunday 21 October: Referendum Day. Voting ends at 1700 hrs. Text of the Amendment Package -------------- ¶8. (U) LAW AMENDING SOME ARTICLES OF THE CONSTITUTION OF REPUBLIC OF TURKEY (Number 5678, adopted by the TGNA on May 31, 2007) Article 1: The word "five" in paragraph one of Article 77 of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey dated November 7, 1980 and number 2709 is amended as "four." (Note: This article is about election of the parliament members, it reduced the term to four years from five.) Article 2: In paragraph two of Article 79 of the Constitution of Republic of Turkey, after the phrase "election minutes" the phrase "and Presidential election minutes" and in the last paragraph of the same article after the phrase "submission to referendum" the phrase "President to be elected by the people" is added. (Note: This article is about the general administration and supervision of elections. The insertions create the opportunity to make arrangements with regard to direct election of the President). Article 3: Article 96 of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey is amended as follows: "The Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) shall convene with minimum one third of the total number of the members for all works including elections that it will make. If there are no other provisions in the Constitution, the TGNA shall decide with the simple majority of the participants; however, the number of votes required for a decision cannot be less that one plus one fourth of the full number of members." Article 4: Article 101 of the Constitution is amended as follows: "Article 101: The President shall be elected by the people, from among TGNA members who complete age 40 and who had higher education or from among Turkish citizens who meet these requirements and who have the eligibility conditions to be elected for parliament. The term of duty of the President is five years. A person can be elected as President maximum for two terms. A person's nomination as a candidate for the Presidency, from among TGNA members or from outside of the parliament, is possible with written proposal of 20 deputies. Moreover, political parties whose votes surpass 10 percent when valid votes at the general elections are added up, can nominate a joint candidate. The connection of the person who is elected President with his/her political party if there is any and his/her TGNA ANKARA 00002324 003 OF 004 membership shall cease." Article 5: Article 102 of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey is amended as follows: "Article 102: The Presidential election shall be completed within 60 days before ending of the term of duty of the incumbent President and in case of evacuation of the office due to any reason within 60 days after the office becomes vacant. In the elections that will be done with general vote, the candidate who gets simple majority of the votes shall be elected President. If in the first round of voting this majority cannot be achieved, then a second round of voting shall be held on second Sunday following this voting. Two candidates who got most of the votes in the first round shall participate in this voting and the candidate who gets majority of valid votes shall be elected President. If one of the candidates who gained the right to run in the second voting dies or loses the eligibility to be elected, the second voting shall be done with the replacement of the candidate with the one in accordance with the lining that emerged at the first round of voting. If a single candidate is left for the second round of voting, then this voting will be done in the form of referendum. If the candidate gets majority of the valid votes, he/she shall be elected President. Until the President assumes duty, the incumbent's duty continues. The methods and principles regarding Presidential election shall be regulated by law." Article 6: Provisional articles are added to the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey. "Provisional Article 18: The last paragraph of article 67 of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey shall not be taken into consideration regarding the amendments that shall be done for the law provisions and amendments in the election law that should be issued for holding Presidential elections. Provisional Article 19: The first round of voting for the election of 11th President shall be held on the first Sunday following the 40th day after the issuance of this law in the Official Gazette, the second round shall be held on the second Sunday following the first round of voting. Candidates that are nominated in accordance with Article 101 of the Constitution, shall apply to the Parliament Speaker's office with their written consent and all documents that contain the conditions mentioned in the amended Article 101 of the Constitution along with all other relevant documents, 30 days before the first round of voting. If the documents and applications of the candidates are found incomplete, the TGNA Speaker's office shall give three days for their completion. If they are not completed within this period, the candidates shall be regarded as withdrawn from candidacy. The final list of candidates who are understood by the TGNA Speaker's office to be bearing the qualifications that are mentioned in Article 101 of the Constitution shall be publicized in two days and submitted to the Supreme Election Board. The public employee who is nominated as the candidate for Presidency shall be regarded as leaving his duty from the date he/she is nominated as candidate. If the public employee who had left his/her position cannot be elected President, relevant legal provisions regarding his/her return to position shall be implemented. From the time when first round of voting becomes definite and till the end of the second round of voting, if the candidates who gained the right to run in the second round of voting dies or loses eligibility to be elected, the second round of ANKARA 00002324 004 OF 004 voting shall be held with the replacement of the candidate with the one in accordance with the ranking that emerged at the first round of voting. If a single candidate is left for the second round of voting, then this voting will be done in the form of referendum. If the candidate gets majority of the valid votes, he/she shall be elected President. Until the methods and principles regarding election of the President are regulated by law, provisions of Parliamentary Election Law dated June 10, 1983 and number 2839; Law on Basic Provisions on Elections and Voter Registrations dated April 26, 1961 and number 298; Political Parties law dated April 22, 1983 and number 28 20 and the Law on Constitutional Amendments be Submitted to Referendum dated May 23, 1987 and number 3376 and provisions of other laws that do not contradict with this article shall be implemented." Article 7: This law enters into effect with publication and if it is submitted to referendum, all articles shall be voted on together. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON