MILITARY PUTS GUL ON NOTICE AS HE APPROACHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002213 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV MARR TU SUBJECT: MILITARY PUTS GUL ON NOTICE AS HE APPROACHES PRESIDENCY Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a tersely worded Victory Day message to the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) posted to the Turkish General Staff (TGS) website the evening of August 27, Chief of Defense GEN Buyukanit condemned those seeking to undermine the unity and secular nature of the Turkish state. Buyukanit's message, released one day before the third (and final) round of parliamentary voting on FM Gul's presidential candidacy on August 28, appears intended to put Gul and the AKP on notice. Politicians and the media have, at least initially, chosen not to react to Buyukanit's statement as their way of saying that the democratic process will move forward. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Buyukanit's message was posted on the Turkish General Staff website three days before the August 30 holiday commemorating the victory of the Turkish Republic, led by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, over occupying powers in 1922 leading to the formation of the modern Turkish state. While early publication of Victory Day messages is not unprecedented, Buyukanit's address was clearly timed to precede Gul's expected election to the presidency on the third round of parliamentary voting on August 28. Along with the usual rhetoric glorifying the deeds of Ataturk and the Turkish Armed Forces in achieving Turkey's independence, it contains harsh words for those of "evil intent" who seek to destroy the unity and solidarity of the Turkish nation. The message condemns attacks on the TAF by "separatists" who are unable to accept Turkey's unitary structure as well as the "dens of evil" who seek to erode Turkey's secular structure -- codewords for the perceived dual threats of PKK terrorists supporting Kurdish separatism and Islamic fundamentalists seeking a more religious state. The message continues that the TAF understands these threats and will not be intimidated by them. ¶3. (C) Media reaction to the message has been muted so far, partly due to its late evening posting on the web. Timing is everything, and it also happened to be posted on one of Islam's holiest nights, when people's prayers ascend to heaven and forgiveness is granted - prayers were being aired on most Turkish stations at the time. ¶4. (C) Most August 28 papers focus on the third round of voting to take place in the afternoon and Gul's expected swearing in as 11th President of the Turkish Republic the same evening. A vice chair of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) stated, "We should not be dealing with this." MHP, which the ultranationalist press has excoriated for enabling Gul's election since the nationalists announced they would participate in the presidential election process, responded dismissively, with their deputy group chairman Mehmet Sandir stating, "As politicians, we do not find it necessary to evaluate the TGS statement." Only the nationalist/secularist Republican People's Party (CHP) referred to Buyukanit's statement as "meaningful." ¶5. (C) Comment: We expect this afternoon's third round of presidential voting to proceed, with MHP, Democratic Left Party (DSP),and pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) MPs in attendance and voting, as they have throughout the process. Buyukanit's message constitutes yet another shot across Gul's bow, presaging continued civil-military tension and ever-present military watchfulness. The lack of immediate and strong media and political reaction (in direct contrast to the April 27 TGS e-memorandum) may also be a sign of a maturing Turkish polity and a slight rebuke to the military. The Turkish people spoke clearly in the July 22 general elections, with nearly 47% voting for stability and continuity when they cast their votes for AKP. They continue to respect the military, but right now, the Turkish people are in charge. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON