TURKEY: GOT CONCERNED ABOUT PAKISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002134 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV AF PK TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: GOT CONCERNED ABOUT PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN; REQUESTS CONSULTATIONS WITH A/S BOUCHER Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The GOT is following developments in Pakistan with concern. It is encouraging President Musharraf to compromise with his political opponents and broaden his base. Though not enamored of Musharraf, the GOT fears his departure would herald much greater instability and is looking to bolster his standing. On Afghanistan, the GOT is deeply concerned about resurgent violence. They remain convinced that Dostum is a stabilizing force in the north, but acknowledge his liabilities and suggest he would not be welcome in Turkey. Stressing the importance of close coordination the GOT requests that A/S Boucher (or other senior representative) stop in Turkey while transiting the region. END SUMMARY. PAKISTAN ON EDGE; TURKEY REACHING OUT TO MUSHARRAF ¶2. (C) MFA Director General for South and Central Asia Bozkurt Aran and Deputy DG Babur Hizlan told CDA August 16 that Turkey is concerned about developments in Pakistan. Aran said friends of Pakistan need to send Musharraf encouraging signals so he has the confidence to make the tough political decisions necessary to broaden his political base. Aran appreciated recent remarks by U/S Burns to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee underscoring Pakistan's importance and the United States' intent to remain a reliable friend. He noted that comments from U.S. presidential candidates and others that refer to unilateral military intervention in Pakistan disturb the Pakistani public. Aran also stressed that Pakistan's problems will not go away if Musharraf is gone. Unlike past military governments he does not have the option to simply cede control to civilian authorities. The future of the country is directly linked to Musharraf's fate, he said. ¶3. (C) The GOT is reaching out to Musharraf. Both President Sezer and PM Erdogan called to congratulate him on the occasion of Pakistan's sixtieth anniversary, and the Pakistan daily 'The Nation' published an editorial on August 14 by FM Gul lauding 60 years of brotherhood between the two countries. Aran told CDA that Pakistan will be one of the first foreign visits Gul makes if he is elected president in late August. Gul will urge Musharraf to broaden his base by bringing Bhutto (and maybe Sharif) back into the political process -- a step Aran believes Musharraf should have taken last year. Aran added that Musharraf has only a month or so to act before events begin to spin out of control. DOSTUM NOT A THREAT TO AFGHANISTAN'S SECURITY AND STABILITY ¶4. (C) Aran described his recent trip to Afghanistan, where he visited Turkey's PRT in Wardak. The Wardak authorities' morale, he said, is practically nil. The governor actually resides in Kabul and his family is staying in Pakistan because it is too dangerous. The 396 Afghan police and 80 Afghan soldiers (to secure a district of nearly one million) are under constant Taliban attack. Aran said the local authorities feel hopeless and are simply "waiting for their fate." Aran was upbeat, however, about the north of Afghanistan, which he described as stable and socially active. Turkey credits Dostum as a force for stability. The CDA said we have a different view and Aran acknowledged his liabilities and indicated a shift in GOT views: "there are no plans and no intention" to invite Dostum to Turkey. STRONG COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN ¶5. (C) Aran noted that Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to implement the commitments taken in the April 2007 Ankara Declaration. The Joint Working Group recently met in Ankara and the leaders are expected to reconvene in late 2007 or early 2008, in Istanbul. Turkey's commitment to Afghanistan remains robust. In addition to its security role in ISAF, Aran told CDA that Turkey has dispersed $50 million of the $100 million pledged to Afghanistan for building schools, hospitals, a police station, veterinary and agricultural colleges, and a mosque. 650,000 patients, he said, have been treated in Turkish clinics. Aran also told CDA that Turkey continues to expand the training opportunities available to Afghans in Turkey, including counter-narcotics and anti-terrorism training. CDA stressed the importance of cooperation and clear communications between the U.S. and Turkey in Afghanistan. ¶6. (C) Aran noted A/S Boucher's frequent travel to the region and invited him to stop in Turkey in the near future. An opportunity to consult with USG before Turkey's new ANKARA 00002134 002 OF 002 president travels to Pakistan in late September would be extremely helpful. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY