TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002072 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE REF: ANKARA 2036 Classified By: A/POLITICAL COUNSELOR KELLY DEGNAN for reasons 1.4(b),( d) ¶1. (C) Summary. FM Abdullah Gul will lobby opposition party leaders today before making what most expect will be a formal announcement of his presidential candidacy. At an August 13 executive board meeting, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) apparently decided to back Gul as the party's sole candidate, despite calls for a less contentious approach. Grass-roots and internal party pressure to support Gul after AKP's strong win in recent general elections brought AKP to this point; withdrawing Gul from the race would be seen as a defeat for democracy. AKP leaders are gambling that secularists, including the military, will eventually accept Gul and his headscarf-wearing wife as the people's choice. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Gul, who has not formally announced his candidacy, is expected to do so after meeting with opposition leaders today. Senior party leaders apparently agreed to run Gul as AKP's sole candidate at an August 13 Central Administrative Board meeting. Grass-roots support for Gul's presidency remains high, buoyed by AKP's strong showing in the July 22 elections, which many interpreted as a victory for democracy against inappropriate interference by the military. For them, a Gul presidency rights the wrong committed when his candidacy was derailed in May and offers an historic chance to banish longstanding taboos, such as a headscarf-wearing First Lady. Given AKP's increased mandate, Gul supporters are portraying him as the "consensus" candidate. ¶3. (SBU) Virtually all of the opposition parties have opposed Gul's candidacy, urging AKP to put forward a consensus candidate or a list of several candidates. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal has steadfastly rejected Gul as an ideologue who does not embody the Republic's secularist principles. CHP Vice Chair Onur Oymen reportedly said Gul's candidacy would not be good for the country, adding that AKP will be responsible for a new crisis. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli has also warned that continued confrontational policies by AKP will provoke an unavoidable crisis in Turkey. The 13-MP Democratic Left Party (DSP) and pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) leaders reportedly will announce their position on Gul's candidacy after internal meetings. ¶4. (SBU) The military has not directly commented, although former Chief of Defense (CHOD) retired General Ozkok told the press on August 13 that it was important to reach a consensus. The president represents all of Turkey to the world, he explained, adding it would be "wrong" to portray a "politicized" image by having a First Lady who wears an Islamic headscarf. Ozkok made clear that he and current CHOD General Buyukanit were in synch on this. ¶5. (C) CHP, which will convene its Central Administrative Board today, has not made clear whether its MPs will attend the voting sessions, which are scheduled for August 20, 24 and 28. MHP officials reiterated their plan to attend; their presence, combined with AKP's 340 seats, assures the required 367 quorum will be present. MHP also intends to introduce a presidential candidate, in part to justify MHP deputies' presence at the vote. AKP may not muster the necessary 367 votes needed to elect Gul in the first two rounds, but should have no difficulty tallying the 276 votes required on the third round, when an absolute majority is needed. ¶6. (C) Comment. AKP leadership appears willing to risk possible blowback from a jittery global financial market and secular institutions that were looking for a compromise solution to the tension surrounding Gul's candidacy. While the military may not respond overtly, it will likely monitor the new government and president closely and capitalize on any missteps. By taking the confrontational road, AKP and Gul can expect a harder job ahead of building cooperation on the policy front and trust that they are working for all Turks. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ ANKARA 00002072 002 OF 002 MCELDOWNEY