CODEL SHAYS: GOT UNDERSCORES SUPPORT FOR MALIKI;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002062 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM OREP AM IZ TU SUBJECT: CODEL SHAYS: GOT UNDERSCORES SUPPORT FOR MALIKI; PRESSES FOR SUNNI ENGAGEMENT REF: ANKARA 2028 Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Rep. Chris Shays told Turkish officials on August 8 that a reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq is inevitable, predicting that it would take place gradually. The Turks stressed that Iraq's disintegration would de-stabilize the region for decades. They called PM Maliki's August 7-8 Ankara visit positive for bilateral relations, both on terrorism and energy cooperation (reftel),and noted that Turkey had emphasized to Maliki the importance of Sunni participation in Iraq's political process. Shays praised GOT engagement with Baghdad, and said Maliki needs a realistic deadline for addressing reconciliation issues and Iraq's future as a unified nation. MFA officials told Shays PKK terror threatens Turkey's relations with the US as well as with Iraq, noting that large numbers of weapons entering Turkey are U.S.-issued and originating from Iraq. They also expressed concern that passage of an Armenia genocide resolution (AGR) would set back bilateral relations. END SUMMARY TANGIBLE PROGRESS WITH MALIKI, BUT CONCERNS ABOUT HIS VIABILITY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) U/S Ertugrul Apakan told Shays that Maliki's Ankara meetings had achieved tangible progress; a bilateral security agreement and an economic partnership agreement should be ready for signature within two months, following visits by the Iraqi Minister of Interior and National Security Advisor in August. Turkey will continue to engage with Maliki, Apakan said, primarily to promote him and the GOI -- "to show that Iraq has a future." Shays appreciated Turkey's efforts to bolster the embattled GOI. He regretted that while last year the GOI lacked will, this year it seems to lack capacity. Apakan conceded that Maliki appears cornered. Iraq Special Envoy Oguz Celikkol and Deputy U/S Rafet Akgunay told Shays that, with Maliki dependent on Kurdish parties for his survival, he is not in control of the political agenda. The Sunni/Shia schism affords Iraqi Kurds a disproportionate degree of influence over GOI policy. Pointing to a lack of coordination within Maliki's government, Akgunay noted that FM Zebari, a Kurd, appeared to be most influential in determining the GOI's Turkey policy. ENGAGE SUNNIS IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS IN IRAQ -------------- - ¶3. (C) Turkey wants to rebuild an Iraqi identity, Apakan said. He warned that Iraq's division would unleash chaos in the region, noting that enhanced dialogue between Sunni and Shia is critical to success. He called for a "third track" reconciliation process, brokered by the UN. Without Sunnis in government there will be no stability in Iraq; the Sunnis know how to govern the Kurds, the Shia don't, he said. Celikkol urged the U.S. to pressure the Shia on Sunni engagement. Maliki had responded positively to Turkey's offer to facilitate contacts between the two groups, he said. Celikkol said Turkey had some success in convincing tribal leaders and other Iraqi Sunnis that Iran poses a greater threat than the United States, but Sunni groups continue to point to USG support for the Shia-Kurdish alliance as sidelining them. ¶4. (C) Shays told the Turks that there is little support in Congress for dividing Iraq. The Maliki government, however, needs a deadline or it will drag out reconciliation for ten years. Force structures make it inevitable that the U.S. will soon begin to draw down troops, though Shays expected it to be orderly, with about 50,000 left by late 2008. Akgunay said re-positioning U.S. troops in northern Iraq would be problematic; it would encourage two Iraqs -- only one controlled. ANKARA 00002062 002 OF 002 PKK TERRORISM THREATENS U.S.-TURKEY RELATIONS... -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Akgunay emphasized that al Qaeda remains a serious concern. It has targeted Turkey in the past and has promised that it will again. The perception that the U.S. has turned a blind eye to the PKK in northern Iraq has hurt Turkey-US relations, in particular the problem of weapons and explosives flowing into Turkey. Turkey believes that over 13,000 weapons have entered the country from Iraq; it has provided the USG 2,000 serial numbers from U.S.-issued hand guns. The PKK's presence in northern Iraq remains a major impediment to rapidly improving Turkey-Iraq ties as well, Celikkol said. Iraqi Kurds and Shia seem to understand Turkey could be among Iraq's closest allies and a source of investment and economic growth - but that cannot happen while the PKK issue poisons relations. ..AS DOES AGR -------------- ¶6. (C) Rep. Shays (an AGR co-sponsor) told his hosts that AGR is constituent-driven. If a resolution comes to the House floor, he predicted it would pass with 400 votes. He emphasized that the resolution has no force of law, and noted the administration opposes it. He urged the Turks to focus on Turkey's big issue - PKK terrorism -- on which Turkey has nearly one hundred percent support in Congress. Apakan explained the central role US relations play in Turkey's western orientation and its internal and external balances; Turkey has been a good partner and ally and Turks don't deserve this resolution. He listed Turkey's efforts to reconcile and normalize relations with Armenia, emphasizing that Turkey is ready to talk to the Armenian government about anything and everything. ¶7. (C) Americas DAS Ocak assured Shays that the GOT will work to contain the damage if an AGR passes. However, he emphasized that the Turkish public would react very strongly; they fear Armenian claims to Turkish territory and reparations lawsuits. Turks are extremely sensitive to perceived threats to the nation's territorial integrity. Noting that Turkey has acknowledged the tragedies of that period, Ocak recommended that the resolution be drafted differently. Shays agreed that a more positive resolution that encourages Turkish and Armenian engagement would be more productive and pledged to focus on this issue. With a better understanding of the impact, Congress may recognize more could be achieved without an AGR than with it, he said. ¶8. (U) Rep. Shays did not have the opportunity to clear this cable. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY