TURKEY'S NEW SPEAKER TOPTAN A SOLID CHOICE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002036 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW SPEAKER TOPTAN A SOLID CHOICE; PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE STILL UNCLEAR REF: ANKARA 2004 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4( c),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. Turkey's parliament elected Koksal Toptan, a widely respected moderate, its new Speaker in condensed voting on August 9. Toptan, the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) Zonguldak deputy, is a former True Path Party (DYP) member with 30 years in government. Viewed across the board as fair, intelligent and clean, Toptan was mentioned as a consensus presidential candidate last spring. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) candidate Tunca Toskay and independent deputy Kamer Genc also ran but AKP's 341 seats, bolstered by support from CHP and others, ensured an easy victory for Toptan. A well-respected Embassy contact, Toptan will bring a balanced, experienced approach to managing Turkey's fractious new parliament. The every-man's choice of Toptan as Speaker may be AKP's attempt to smooth the way for FM Gul's more contentious presidential candidacy. Debate continues on whether PM Erdogan will name his cabinet or his presidential candidate next. Summary and comment. ¶2. (C) Toptan, 64, was the easy choice for Speaker, a position second in rank to the president. He received 450 of the 535 votes cast; MHP's candidate won 74 votes. A lawyer with extensive government experience, Toptan is liked and respected as fair, open-minded and balanced in approach. He chaired parliament's Justice Committee in the last term and served as Education Minister while still a member of center-right secular DYP. His secular background, and a wife who does not wear a headscarf, made him a reassuring choice for opposition and state establishment leaders still wary of AKP's Islamist roots. AKP deputies selected Toptan August 8 as the party's only candidate, ensuring his election. ¶3. (C) AKP's choice of Toptan set a tone of consensus as the new government faces forming a cabinet and presidential elections. Some are reading it as AKP's attempt to smooth the way for FM Gul's still hotly debated presidential candidacy. Gul has not withdrawn, and Erdogan has not clearly named him AKP's candidate. Debate within the party and the public continues, with some viewing Gul's possible withdrawal as a defeat for democracy and others pushing for a more broadly acceptable compromise candidate, such as Vecdi Gonul. Erdogan must balance his pledge to support Gul against his promise to represent all Turks. Pleasing AKP's grass-roots supporters and mollifying the 53 percent who did not vote AKP may be Erdogan's toughest test. ¶4. (C) With Toptan's election, Erdogan now has 45 days to submit his cabinet for presidential approval. He may initiate the presidential election first to ensure that the new president, rather than President Sezer, approves his list of ministers. There is no prescribed start-date for the presidential election, although the process must be completed within 30 days once begun. If the proposed cabinet is not contentious, Erdogan may submit the names to Sezer and delay the presidential election until his new government is in place. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY