WELCOME CONGRESSMAN SHAYS: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001977 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PTER ECON ENRG OREP AM IZ TU SUBJECT: WELCOME CONGRESSMAN SHAYS: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BAIRD (SHAYS/PALARINO),AUGUST 7-9, 2007 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Your visit to Turkey comes as the recently elected parliament prepares to approve a new government and elect the country's next president. Terrorism and Iraq remain key issues, and the return of pro-Kurdish representatives to parliament after 14 years may offer a chance for improved dialogue on both. Turkey continues to be an essential partner in Iraq, supporting coalition forces by allowing the use of its territory as a logistical hub. It has over 1,000 troops in Afghanistan and has twice led international forces there. The single biggest obstacle to bilateral relations is PKK terrorism. Turkey is frustrated with U.S. and Iraqi failure to act against PKK terrorists in northern Iraq and has threatened to strike PKK targets across the border if the U.S. or Iraq does not act. House passage of an Armenian genocide resolution would likely jeopardize U.S. national security interests in Turkey and Iraq, complicate the security environment for U.S. citizens and USG personnel, and work against those in Turkey calling for open discussion on the tragedies of 1915. End summary. PKK TERRORISM AND IRAQ -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Turkey has consistently demonstrated strong security cooperation in the global war on terror as a key U.S. ally and the only democracy and NATO member bordering Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Turkey broadly agrees with U.S. goals in Iraq and tangibly supports our military efforts there. However, Turkish concerns about Iraq's stability and future, as well as PKK terrorist attacks launched from northern Iraq, complicate our relationship. ¶3. (SBU) Since 1984, the PKK terrorist campaign has resulted in approximately 37,000 deaths. After ending its self-imposed five-year cease-fire in 2004, the PKK has conducted attacks against Turkey from strongholds in northern Iraq, killing over 600 Turkish civilians and military and foreigners in 2006 alone, and nearly 100 in 2007 to date. The increased violence prompted the government and military to threaten possible cross-border operations targeting the PKK in Iraq. The USG has strongly discouraged this, citing Iraqi sovereignty and the risk of increased instability. The U.S. has been Turkey's closest ally in the fight against the PKK, securing EU agreement to place the PKK on its list of terrorist organizations; spear-heading Europe-wide efforts to close PKK financial, logistical, and media support outlets there; and leading a trilateral (US/TU/IZ) process to stop the threat emanating from northern Iraq. We are also encouraging dialogue between the GOT and Iraqi and Kurdish Regional Government authorities. ¶4. (SBU) Turkey worries about increasing instability in Iraq, growing Iranian influence in the region, and the potential for Iraq to splinter along sectarian or ethnic lines. The GOT is also concerned about Iraqi Kurdish ambitions to expand their territory to include oil-rich Kirkuk. The prospect of a referendum this year on Kirkuk's future status exacerbates Turkish fears that Kurdish annexation of the province will lead to massive inter-communal violence, and, ultimately, the dissolution of Iraq. Turkish political leaders have sought to reinforce Iraq's unity and territorial integrity; Turkey has been among the most active in the Iraq Neighbors Process. ¶5. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to use of its territory as a logistical hub has been a combat multiplier for our Iraq operations. Approximately 3 million gallons per day of gasoline and diesel fuel for the Iraqi people and 25 percent of sustainment fuel for coalition forces crosses into Iraq through the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border Gate. Since May 2005 when Turkey approved the use of Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub to support coalition operations in Iraq, over 152 million pounds of equipment have been shipped to U.S. troops. Over fifty percent of all air cargo into Iraq has transited the Incirlik cargo hub. TURKISH CONTRIBUTIONS TO AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Turkey has been a solid contributor to the NATO Allies' effort in Afghanistan. It has over 1,000 troops on the ground, and has twice led the International Security ANKARA 00001977 002 OF 003 Assistance Force for Afghanistan (ISAF). It recently took over command of the ISAF Kabul region in April, and donated 24 155mm howitzers to the Afghan National Army, along with a training package. In addition to military support, Turkey operates a PRT in Wardak Province and has committed 100 million dollars in long-term development support to Afghanistan, which has been used primarily for the construction of hospitals and schools. Turkey is also engaged in a strong diplomatic effort to promote dialogue between Afghan President Karzai and Pakistani President Musharraf. On April 29, 2007, in Ankara, the leaders signed their first joint declaration, committing the two sides to foster improved cooperation on intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and economic development. The leaders commissioned a joint working group to monitor implementation of the Ankara Declaration. TURKISH INVESTMENT AND TRADE IN NORTHERN IRAQ -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Turkey's exports to Iraq are substantial -- about $2.5 billion dollars in 2006 and $1.3 billion through June 2007, according to the Turkish Foreign Trade Undersecretariat (FTU). While greater competition has reduced Turkey's share in Iraq's market, Turkish businesses are still active in oil exploration, service businesses, and construction. Some 325-380 Turkish businesses reportedly control 95 percent of the $2.8 billion reconstruction market in northern Iraq, including subsidiaries of OYAK, the Armed Forces Pension Fund, and Nursoy, a company founded by a former Nationalist Action Party (MHP) provincial chairman. Turkish businesses have won projects such as the $300 million Irbil airport, the $260 million Suleimaniye University, and the $65 million Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) headquarters. These projects depend primarily on Turkish imports of construction and other material. In the oil business, Turkey's Genel Enerji is exploring around Kirkuk. ¶8. (SBU) Several factors have contributed to declines in daily truck traffic through the Habur Gate from 2,500-3,000 pre-invasion to 500-750 today. Better enforcement has reduced fuel smuggling into Turkey. Iraq,s State Oil Marketing Organization no longer takes commercial fuel deliveries from Turkey, which accounted for up to 100 trucks per day. Moreover, the KDP reportedly demands fees of $300-400 from Turkish drivers. The risk of a cross border operation (CBO) reportedly led numerous companies to leave northern Iraq. Official trade numbers from the FTU also show a slackening in growth of Turkish exports to Iraq, running against the trend of Turkey's steady export growth. In a July 19 meeting, however, the Chairman of the Turkey-Iraq Business Council said that the GOT continues to push commercial engagement on the ground, adding that he was confident the business community would get advance warning of a major CBO. ELECTION RESULTS -------------- ¶9. (U) Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a significant victory in July 22 parliamentary elections, returning to power with 46.6% of the vote, up from 34% in the 2002 election. Two other parties crossed the ten percent election threshold required to enter parliament, along with 26 independent candidates, creating a fractious if more representative legislature. AKP appears set to form another single-party government, with 341 of parliament's 550 seats, but returns with a reduced majority and short of the 367 seats needed to elect the next president or amend Turkey's military-drafted constitution. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP),with 20% of the vote, lost seats in several of its strongholds. Commentators view the results as the opposition's failure as much as AKP's success. The new parliament will convene August 4, with election of a Speaker, formation of a new government and election of Turkey's next president topping the agenda. ¶10. (U) AKP now has a mandate to pursue its economic development and modernization policies, EU membership and political reform for another term. Erdogan was magnanimous in an acceptance speech that stressed unity, democracy, stability. His first real test will be choosing a ANKARA 00001977 003 OF 003 presidential candidate who can bridge the divide between a shattered left and jubilant AKP supporters. HOUSE RESOLUTION ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage a candid discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic Armenians during World War I. The Turkish and Armenian governments have discussed establishing joint commissions of academics and historians to establish the facts, in parallel with efforts to establish official bilateral relations. The January 2007 murder of Turkish Armenian journalist Hrant Dink has contributed to growing calls for changes to Penal Code Article 301, which criminalizes insulting "Turkishness," and stifles Turks, ability to discuss fully the events of 1915. A U.S. Congressional resolution labeling this tragedy a "genocide" would trigger an intensely negative and nationalist response, and would work against those in Turkey calling for a comprehensive review of the events and for normalizing bilateral relations with Armenia. ¶12. (SBU) A resolution would also have negative consequences for U.S. national security interests in Iraq and elsewhere. Supply routes into Iraq that are crucial to supporting U.S. troops, military overflights and use of Turkish bases that support U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan could be jeopardized. Additionally, major defense procurement contracts with U.S. manufacturers (with expected and potential sales exceeding $10 billion) could be scrapped. Agricultural purchases might also be canceled and consumer boycotts could ensue. Anti-Americanism -- already high -- would likely intensify, increasing the threat level for U.S. citizens and USG personnel living and working in Turkey. MISSION TURKEY -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Mission Turkey consists of four posts: Embassy Ankara, Consulate General Istanbul, Consulate Adana, and a two-person Consular Agency in Izmir. Country-wide, there are currently about 300 American positions and almost 700 locally employed staff (LES) working for over 20 agencies throughout the Mission. The Mission's FY 2007 operating budget was $30 million. Mission Turkey is scheduled for a New Embassy Compound (NEC),with construction set to begin in 2010. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY