TURKEY: NEW AIR FORCE AND NAVY COMMANDERS TO BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001970 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS MARR TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: NEW AIR FORCE AND NAVY COMMANDERS TO BE SELECTED AT ANNUAL MILITARY COUNCIL MEETING Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Supreme Military Council (YAS) will meet August 1-4 and is expected to name new Turkish Air Force and Navy commanders. In all, five three-star officers will be promoted to four stars to replace officers retiring this year. Chief of Turkish General Staff (CHOD) GEN Yasar Buyukanit and Land Forces Commander GEN Ilker Basbug will remain in their positions for another year, while almost 50 percent of the officer corps will change billets as a result of promotions, new appointments, and retirements. It is unclear whether Deputy CHOD GEN Ergin Saygun will stay or move on to command an army or the Jandarma. The YAS is the main vehicle for weeding out "Islamist" officers and will likely recommend dismissal of a handful of officers for excess piety or other disciplinary reasons. This will be the first formal meeting between Turkey's most senior military officers and Prime Minister Erdogan since the July 22 elections and the tone will be indicative of the level of civil-military tension following the AKP's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls. End summary Supreme Military Council -------------- ¶2. (U) The Supreme Military Council, or Yuksek Askeri Surasi (YAS),is headed by the Prime Minister and consists of all 15 full generals and admirals in the Turkish Armed Forces plus the Minister of Defense. (Note: There are currently 11 full generals in the Land Forces, 2 in the Air Force, and 2 four-star admirals in the Navy. End note). The Council is convened twice a year, first in early August and later on a date determined by the CHOD, typically in November or December. At the August YAS -- the most important of the two sessions -- members vote on officer promotions and dismissals. At the second YAS meeting military procedural and reform issues are discussed. YAS meetings are always closed to media. ¶3. (U) Assignment decisions for promoted officers are made by the CHOD in conjunction with the YAS. In practice, the CHOD and service commanders hold an unofficial meeting 30 to 45 days before the August YAS to discuss promotions and assignments. Major decisions are unofficially taken in that meeting and are then voted on at the YAS, approved by the president, and are expected to be announced on August 4. New force commanders are nominated by the CHOD and confirmed by a tripartite decree signed by the Defense Minister, Prime Minister, and President. For assignments within each command, nominations are made by force commanders for final approval of the CHOD. Promotions and new assignments become official on August 30. ¶4. (U) Typically, promotions to four-star general are discussed on the first day of the YAS. Files of all eligible lieutenant generals are reviewed and all YAS members have an opportunity to express their opinion and grade each candidate. Once the grading process is completed the officers with the highest grades are promoted, subject to the approval of the CHOD. The same procedure is followed on successive days for the promotions of major generals, brigadier generals and colonels. Dismissal files are discussed on the final day. Expected Results from the 2007 YAS -------------- ¶5. (C) This year's YAS is expected to fill five four-star vacancies, including new commanding officers to succeed the retiring Air Force and Navy commanders. Fleet Commander ADM Muzaffer Metin Atac is widely expected to replace Admiral Yener Karahanoglu as Navy Commander. Air Force Commander GEN Faruk Comert will likely be replaced by War Academies Commander LTG Aydogan Babaoglu. CHOD GEN Yasar Buyukanit and Land Forces Commander GEN Ilker Basbug will remain in their positions for one more year. It is unclear whether Deputy CHOD GEN Ergin Saygun will remain in his position, move to an army command, or possibly be named commander of the Jandarma. Three Land Forces lieutenant generals are up for promotion to full general. LTG Erdal Ceylanoglu, Head of the Inspection and Evaluation Department of Land Forces and LTG Necdet Ozel, Deputy Commander, Training and Doctrine Command, are the most likely candidates for promotion, according to local observers. Thereafter, it is a toss-up between four other lieutenant generals, with perhaps LTG Yavuz Yalcin getting the nod. First Army Commander GEN Fethi Remzi Tuncel, GEN Orhan Yoney, and Commander of the Aegean Army GEN Sukru Sariisik are retiring. ¶6. (C) According to retired army officers familiar with the YAS process, this year's YAS will yield few surprises and will be straightforward. MG (ret) Armagan Kuloglu told us that both ADM Atac and LTG Baboglu are widely respected officers with all the right credentials. They currently occupy the typical command positions that previous Navy and Air Force commanders have held. Both officers, Kuloglu commented, have a "confidence problem" with the U.S. stemming from perceived U.S. failure to take action against PKK terrorism in northern Iraq. This attitude is common among senior Turkish military officers, Kuloglu claimed. ¶7. (C) All of the three-star officers being considered for promotion have nearly identical, impeccable service records and have attended comparable training courses and schools over the course of their careers, according to Dr. Sadi Cayci, former TGS Judge Advocate General and International Law Advisor for Ankara's government-supported think tank, the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM). What differentiates them are their personal relationships to the current CHOD. The corruption conviction of LTG Ethem Erdagi, Commander 3rd Army Corps in Istanbul, will eliminate him from any chance of promotion and has ended his career, according to Cayci. Cleansing the Military of "Islamist" Officers -------------- ¶8. (C) The ability of the YAS to recommend officers' dismissal from service is one of the main vehicles the military has for weeding out officers considered too "Islamic," according to ASAM's Sadi Cayci. Every year, 10 to 12 officers are recommended for dismissal for various disciplinary reasons, including allegations of corruption. Among the more sensitive cases are those in which officers are alleged to display signs of being "too pious." Indications might include wearing a uniform to prayer at a mosque, the officer's spouse wearing a headscarf, belonging to a religious order (tarikat or cemaat),or otherwise demonstrating "inappropriate" religious influence in carrying out official duties. Under current law, decisions of the YAS to remove officers for any reason are not subject to judicial review. A constitutional change would be required to permit officers selected out by the YAS an opportunity to challenge the decision in court. ¶9. (C) The YAS will be the first formal meeting between Turkey's most senior military officers and Prime Minister Erdogan since the July 22 elections. As has been his practice in recent years, and reportedly unlike a number of his predecessors, Erdogan is expected to attend all the sessions and participate actively. The tone of the meeting will be indicative of the level of civil-military tension following the AKP's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY