TURKISH PM ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS, REGIONAL ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001928

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL US TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH PM ADVISOR ON ELECTIONS, REGIONAL ISSUES

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Turkish PM/FM foreign affairs advisor Ahmet Davutoglu
said the AKP's July 22 electoral showing was a big victory
that effectively puts the party in Turkey's political center.
In a July 24 conversation with the Ambassador, Davutoglu
expressed uncertainty about how PM Erdogan will handle the
presidential race. On the one hand, many voted AKP to show
support for FM Gul's candidacy in the April/May confrontation
with the secular establishment; on the other hand, the mantle
of legitimacy that consensus agreement on the presidency
would convey would be helpful for the Turkey Erdogan wants to
achieve. Davutoglu commented on Syria, Israel and Lebanon,
and he expressed interest in the upcoming Middle East peace
conference. Other topics included Iraq, the PKK, and Armenia
(septel). End Summary

Turkish Elections
--------------


2. (C) Davutoglu hailed the AKP,s election victory. He
said the party got a big boost in its internal polling from
the TGS e-memorandum of April 27, reaching 51 percent of the
electorate in its aftermath before falling back somewhat. He
agreed that most people voted to endorse the party's record
of prosperity, effective governance and stability. It was
remarkable that the AKP got support throughout the country,
whereas support for MHP and CHP is confined to the west, and
DTP got little backing west of Diyarbakir. This national
legitimacy is a tool the AKP can use to push for solutions to
polarizing issues, though Davutoglu acknowledged the
solutions will still be very hard. He hoped that once in
office, MHP and the DTP/independent MPs would each see that
the other side is not made up of fascists and terrorists.


3. (C) Davutoglu expressed uncertainty about how the
presidential election will play out. He said a lot of the
AKP's support came from voters who back FM Gul and are angry
about the secular establishment's derailing of his candidacy
in April/May. Erdogan will have to gauge the attitude of AKP
deputies and the internal party dynamics on this. By the
same token, Erdogan will want to see the attitudes of others,
especially the MHP. Independent deputies sympathetic to AKP
will not be enough to get the AKP over the 367-seat quorum.
New MHP deputies and some CHPers may want to avoid
confrontation on this, including so they can hold on to their
seats and not risk another parliamentary election. A broadly
supported candidate will, Davutoglu acknowledged, have a
legitimacy that will help Turkey at this point in its
history. Ambassador underscored that and urged a pragmatic
approach. Davutoglu agreed on the usefulness of consensus,
but also complained that matters do not depend entirely on
the AKP.

Middle East
--------------


4. (C) Davutoglu was coy regarding his recent contacts with
and passing of messages between Syria and Israel. He would
say only that Turkey's motive is to help avoid a repeat of
the downward spiral that took place in mid-2006 which led to
war. There had been a plan for FM Gul to visit Damascus
right after the UN Tribunal was established to try to "calm
the Syrians down," but this was postponed due to electoral
issues here. Davutoglu traveled instead. He said that the
problem of Syrian-Israeli relations is very hard. There is
at present nothing to show for Turkey's efforts, but
Davutoglu believes it could be useful to try and is keeping
Israel informed. Turkey has also used its contacts with the
Palestinians to encourage moves away from confrontation,
though it is skeptical about what can be done in the near
term. Davutoglu said Turkey would welcome information as
soon as possible on US plans and thinking for our proposed
international conference on the Middle East.


5. (C) Asked for US views on efforts regarding Syria and
Israel, Ambassador said that the Syrian/Israel track is
obviously an important one, but that the US is exceedingly
skeptical about Syrian intentions. Most likely, Syria wants
to use any contacts with Turkey and others to ease its
international isolation, while not giving up activities that
undermine regional stability -- in Lebanon, vis-a-vis Israel,
etc. He urged that the Turks keep us briefed on contacts
with Syria and that there be no surprises that could be
damaging for Turkey in the US.

Iraq
--------------


6. (C) Davutoglu said he thinks that seeking an Iraq
Neighbors Plus ministerial during the first half of September
for a ministerial makes sense. The key is for the US to get

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the Iraqis to agree, but Davutoglu said he would try to get
this on the agenda for Maliki's visit here in coming days.
Davutoglu noted that Ramadan (September 13- October 11 in
Turkey; dates may vary in Arab countries) could be a problem
for some, in which case a mid-October or November ministerial
may make sense. Re Turkey's contacts with Iraqi Sunnis, he
noted that one group Turkey has been trying to draw into
politics recently issued a press release (which he claimed
was picked up by the Guardian newspaper) talking about the
formation of a political wing, pursuing its goals through
politics, and readiness to talk with the US. Davutoglu said
that a more formal statement should be issued in coming
weeks. He made clear that Turkey's expectations are limited.

PKK
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador suggested that there are new developments
-- the election of DTP/independents to the Turkish
parliament, Baghdad's proposal to have a trilateral
Iraq-Turkey-US meeting on the PKK, the Maliki visit, and the
possible Expanded Iraq Neighbors ministerial -- that can open
up new avenues for diplomacy on the PKK. He stressed that
this has to include dialogue with the KRG to be successful.
Davutoglu reiterated previously-stated AKP government
disappointment with the US over the PKK. He said that no one
has argued more strongly for dialogue with Barzani. He
agreed there are some opportunities to be used, but said no
one should lose sight of the fact that the presence of PKK
terrorists in northern Iraq is unacceptable.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON