TURKEY/IRAQ: NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IRAQI CLAIMS

S E C R E T ANKARA 001882 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2022 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS IZ TU SUBJECT: TURKEY/IRAQ: NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IRAQI CLAIMS OF MAJOR CROSS-BORDER STRIKES REF: A. BAGHDAD 02422 ¶B. IIR 6 898 0555 07 ¶C. ECCLES-SIEBENTRITT E-MAILS Classified By: DCM NANCY MCELDOWNEY FOR REASONS 1.4 (b,c,d). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: We have investigated and found no evidence to support Iraqi claims (ref a) that Turkey undertook major cross-border strikes into Iraq on July 18. JAC Molesworth, as well as the NATO Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) in Eskisehir, which monitors regional airspace, report no evidence that Turkish aircraft entered Iraqi airspace. Imagery analysis from JAC Molesworth indicates that, as of July 19, Turkish artillery remained targeted at PKK camps in the eastern regions of Iraq, and is not facing the Zakho region which the Iraqis assert was under massive fire. The US Liaison Officer (LNO) in Silopi, just across the border from Zakho, has seen no on-the-ground evidence of a large scale operation. This lack of evidence notwithstanding, we believe the Turkish military continues to undertake both hot pursuit and limited artillery fire across the border. Definitive confirmation of this type of activity is exceptionally difficult given the mountainous terrain. The potential for hot pursuit and artillery fire to escalate into a more sustained and larger scale undertaking -- without advance warning -- cannot be ruled out. End Summary ¶2. (S/NF) Embassy has investigated allegations made by Masood Barzani to Embassy Baghdad that Turkey conducted massive artillery fire and aircraft bombing runs against multiple villages in several districts of northern Iraq, to a reported depth of 30 kilometers, on July 18 (ref a). Post inquiries to CAOC-6 and to JAC Molesworth reveal no evidence of cross-border sorties by Turkish aircraft nor significant air activity on the Turkish side of the border on July 18. ¶3. (S/NF) KRG authorities allege that some of these strikes occurred in the Zakho district. JAC Molesworth reports that the 20 self-propelled artillery pieces in range of Zakho were faced east towards PKK camps and not towards Zakho as of July ¶19. Our LNO located in Silopi, just across the border from Zakho, has been unable to confirm artillery fire or airstrikes in that area after inquiries with the Turkish army and MNF(N). According to our information, the Zakho mayor has denied knowledge of any cross-border shelling (ref b). (Note: Artillery fires elsewhere along the border would be more difficult to confirm or deny from our vantage point. End Note). ¶4. (S/NF) We note that Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's widely publicized claims that there are 140,000 Turkish soldiers on the Turkey-Iraq border are grossly exaggerated. NGA assesses that, while Turkey has a large number of troops in the southeast part of the country engaged in counter-terrorism operations, only 25,000 of them are within 10 kilometers of the border (ref c). No major changes in deployment patterns have been observed recently. ¶5. (S/NF) Turkish military authorities have admitted that Turkish forces conduct cross-border artillery fires and limited hot pursuit operations on occasion against suspected PKK targets, but generally will not provide us with information on specific occurrences. ¶6. (S/NF) Embassy requests that CENTCOM and other agencies, as appropriate, provide us with specific evidence or intelligence to support Barzani's claims that Turkey conducted massive cross-border artillery fires and/or airstrikes in northern Iraq on July 18. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON