ECONOMIC INSECURITY IN TURKISH BLACK SEA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001860 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ETRD EIND SOCI TU SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INSECURITY IN TURKISH BLACK SEA PROVINCIAL CAPITAL ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Despite its reputation as a nationalist hotbed, Trabzon is a lively, cosmopolitan city, influenced by growing trade and tourist relations with the former Soviet Union. The charm and prosperity of its downtown mask significant underemployment and a growing concern about the region's relative economic decline. Most citizens are proud of Trabzon's rich and diverse cultural heritage, and regret the notoriety gained following the Hrant Dink murder, but are otherwise individualistic and inherently inward looking. These traits impede the collaborative spirit found in Turkey's more successful, entrepreneurial cities from taking root. Perhaps because of their strong regional identification, Trabzonites are less fractured along political party-lines than other Turks, and distrustful of outside influences. No single party dominates here, and the region has a history of voting contrary to national trends. In an election season as unpredictable as this one, forecasting how Trabzonites will vote on July 22 is almost impossible. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The DCM visited Trabzon on July 9 and met with local government leaders, as well as with academic, business and community representatives. Poloff held separate meetings on July 10. The city is a provincial capital of 215,000, set on the Black Sea in northeastern Turkey. This was the first visit by a U.S. official to Trabzon since the Hrant Dink murder in January 2007 by a local youth, which followed the February 2006 murder of the local Catholic priest and the 2004 bombing of a McDonald's restaurant. We did not find a city tense and on edge. Trabzon is cosmopolitan and lively, and most people we met welcomed us and spoke freely about the challenges facing the region. WEAK JOBS PICTURE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The lack of jobs, and Trabzon's uncertain economic future, are the most important issues currently facing residents. Driven by the low price of hazelnuts, the region's real unemployment rate is close to twenty percent, with many residents forced to take on part-time and seasonal work. According to the Vice Rector at the city's Black Sea Technical University, nearly fifty percent of graduates do not find jobs in their chosen fields. Even tourism management graduates, he said, are more likely to seek opportunities in Antalya and other parts of Turkey -- a major obstacle to the development of the city's tourism potential. ¶4. (SBU) Despite a bustling downtown, Trabzon is not an Anatolian tiger. The entrepreneurial zeal that is the engine of Turkey's economic growth in places like Konya and Eskisehir is not evident. Traditional industries, such as shipping and agriculture, dominate, while members of the local small business and artisans association are more likely to complain about shopping malls than issues critical to business' ability to grow and compete, such as lower taxes or access to credit. ¶5. (SBU) A university professor told us that Black Sea people are famously self-reliant, and take care of family members in need, but that individualism hinders Trabzonites from developing networks to grow the economy. Locals also exhibit a degree of fatalism about their economic future. According to the Governor, when he asked in a poll what the people wanted from their government, a plurality said dealing with unemployment -- four times the number who said they wanted security. But when he asked what the people expected from their government, the majority responded security. Most residents, he said, do not expect their government to be able to address the region's economic challenges, but do expect the government to keep them safe. PKK/IRAQ NOT A PARAMOUNT ISSUE IN TRABZON -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Locals did not address the PKK issue in a confrontational manner. Trabzon has no significant Kurdish minority, and residents feel secure from PKK violence. Even the leftist-nationalist Republican People's Party (CHP) mayor Volkan Canalioglu stressed the importance of dialogue to resolve problems. Governor Okutan told the DCM, "The PKK is ANKARA 00001860 002 OF 003 not that important; views can change overnight." Okutan said anti-Americanism was multi-dimensional. In his view, the United States needs to stop developing Turkish relations outside of traditional channels, referring to our supposed ties with "community leaders," such as quasi-religious figure (and current U.S. resident Fethullah Gulen). In a separate meeting with poloff, a leading Trabzon human rights attorney and leftist-secularist Democratic Left Party (DSP) provincial chairwoman, Sibel Suicmez (PROTECT),argued that anti-Americanism stems not only from Iraq and the PKK issue, but from our supposed ties to the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP). She expressed her concern that the United States has left the traditional, secular left-wing alone, and appears to support an Islamic state. BENEFITS OF TRADE LIMITED, BUT WIDENING PERSPECTIVES -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) City leaders are proud that Trabzon is a center for regional trade -- the city has a distinctly international feel, and numerous restaurants and shops advertise in Russian. A rail line is being constructed to connect Trabzon to Tbilisi and Baku, and visa requirements for Georgians have been eliminated. Governor Okutan informed the DCM that, while strong trade and tourism relations exist with Russia, Trabzonites remain cautious of their giant Black Sea neighbor, which has sought to dominate the region in the past. Okutan also pointed out that the majority of products exported from Trabzon -- with the exception of hazelnuts -- are not locally produced. Indeed, the governor noted that, with the exception of a nascent ship-building sector, there is little industry in the region. ¶8. (SBU) The full potential of trade with the region is not exploited due to frozen conflicts in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and the border closure with Armenia. The Governor said Trabzon has the infrastructure to go ahead with full trade relations with Armenia when the political situation allows it. Indeed, Trabzonites approached the Armenia problem with a great deal of pragmatism. Trabzon should become Armenia's maritime outlet after relations are normalized with Turkey, but one Chamber of Commerce representative told us that he worries that Turkey will miss the boat. Supported by Turkish investment, Batumi -- just over the border in Georgia -- recently opened a new international airport, and plans are underway to develop a modern new port facility there. In addition to Black Sea trade, trade relations with Iran have also been historically important to Trabzon, even if most residents view Iran even more warily than they do Russia. Trade ties with Iran have diminished in recent years, but Iran continues to maintain a Consulate General in the city, as do Russia and Georgia. NATIONALIST VIOLENCE IS A LOCAL PROBLEM, BUT NOT UNIQUE TO THIS CITY -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) On the subject of the Hrant Dink murders, local leaders were regretful, but said that nationalist violence is not particular to Trabzon -- pointing to the recent murders of Christians in Malatya. Governor Okutan said the youth who committed the Dink murder "should have been supervised," and emphasized the importance of vocational training (the DCM visited one such government-sponsored vocational program for disadvantaged young women),while eagerly describing the youth center that the government is building. According to Suicmez, many Trabzon NGOs banded together and went to the Dink funeral to pay condolences to the family, but when the city came under attack in the media, residents' gut reaction was to defend themselves. Suicmez told us that she does not see a criminal, ultra-nationalist establishment in Trabzon. Maybe, she said, there are a few small gangs, but nothing organized, and nothing Trabzon itself is creating. Also contributing to risk of nationalist violence in the city, we learned, is that residents love their guns. ¶10. (SBU) The Romanian-born caretaker of the St. Maria Catholic Church (PROTECT) -- the only Christian church in Trabzon, where the Italian priest Santoro was murdered in 2006 -- expressed disillusionment with the local police, and extended his concerns to Turkey at large. The church, he ANKARA 00001860 003 OF 003 said, is continually harassed by the authorities, while at the same time, church employees receive both anonymous and direct threats on their lives. Unlike Catholic churches the world over, this church and its gardens remain gated and locked throughout the day, opened only by appointment or for scheduled mass. Foreign-born employees of the church struggle for visa renewals, which the government never issues for the maximum validity permissible. The re-painting of the exterior of the church took nearly one year to approve. Despite this difficult situation, the church still tries to promote tolerance within the community, and continues the weekly inter-faith dialogue that Father Santoro started. TRABZON VOTES UP FOR GRABS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Black Sea people have traditionally demonstrated a penchant for politics. Former PM Yilmaz is from near-by Rize, as is the family of current PM Erdogan. Residents, however, have a reputation for voting contrary to prevailing trends. Despite a hard fought election, Trabzonites, we learned, are not polarized politically. Members of the Chamber of Commerce each professed affiliations to different political parties. Likewise, despite its reputation for conservatism, social issues do not divide the city. Alcohol is widely available in the numerous bars and restaurants and religious headscarves on women (turban) are no more common than in Ankara. Local university officials told the DCM that students are interested in politics, but, compared to 1970s, do not choose to become activists, focusing instead on their education and career opportunities. Even a secular/religious flashpoint such as the ban on headscarves for university students generated little excitement. University officials asserted that the university follows the rules and students don't complain. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON